Which american distance runner will medal first?

[gh]

It's quite possible we will never see another American male medal over 1500m and longer.

I'm pretty sure the US will medal in the future. Some of these distance races can be a complete crap shoot depending on how the race pans out. Also some people just have great races, dare I say, once in a life time races. It has happened and will happen again.

Of course this is coming from the same guy that thinks England has a good shot at winning the world cup every four years (assuming they qualify). :wink:

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

But then that leads me to this empirical observation (maybe somebody w/ more time than I would like to plot it out), but hasn't nearly all the U.S. distance success (men and women both) in recent OG/WC competition come in extreme conditions?

While it's easy to think of Tarzan swinging through a steamy jungle when "Africa" comes up, the altitude-trained Kenyans and Ethiopians obviously don't live/train in anything like that. So why is it that they perhaps have fared less well (compared to their Euro Circuit abilities) than Americans when it gets hot and wet?

(obvioiusly, the Japanese-trained Sammy Wanjiru has no such problems!)

[Daisy]

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

I hear you and it was primarily Tegenkamp I was thinking about. But then, from my parochial perspective, i think about Charlie Spedding, Mike Mcleod and Brendan Foster. Obviously all very good athletes, but not necessarily good bets for a medal. Caveat here is no Africans in the mix.

[williamwindhamjr]

German will medal someday

[26mi235]

Tegenkamp's miss was a mere 0.03.

[Powell]

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

But that was in a race won in outside 13:45. If it's as slow as that, the whole thing becomes a crap shoot. Compare the Beijing final, which was run at an honest pace throughout, and Teg ended up half a minute behind.

[Matt]

Yes, those 'slow' races usually produce surprising medallists. See Mottram, Helsinki '05, Goucher in Osaka as well.

[EPelle]

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

But that was in a race won in outside 13:45. If it's as slow as that, the whole thing becomes a crap shoot. Compare the Beijing final, which was run at an honest pace throughout, and Teg ended up half a minute behind.

... and that was due to a lot of wasted energy used trying to cover moves instead of running his own race.

"There was some complacency on my side of the way we trained," he said. "We trained for a kicker's race. Athletes need to be patient and need to react to what happens. I was trying to predict when the major move was going to be made even before the race. I was up on everyone's heels and using up lots of extra energy. I feel if I had been more patient in that race, I would have run a much better race.

He did have the strength to run an honest pace, evidenced by his own personal best at this and other distances (3.000m/2-mile). His race seems to have been lost on tactical misgivings.

[James Fields]

"Which american distance runner will medal first in the worlds or the olympics?"

No current USA Olympic medalist? Don't overlook Shalane Flanagan.

[gh]

the originating post was male-referenced only.