Which american distance runner will medal first?

[gh]

the originating post was male-referenced only.

[James Fields]

"Which american distance runner will medal first in the worlds or the olympics?"

No current USA Olympic medalist? Don't overlook Shalane Flanagan.

[EPelle]

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

But that was in a race won in outside 13:45. If it's as slow as that, the whole thing becomes a crap shoot. Compare the Beijing final, which was run at an honest pace throughout, and Teg ended up half a minute behind.

... and that was due to a lot of wasted energy used trying to cover moves instead of running his own race.

"There was some complacency on my side of the way we trained," he said. "We trained for a kicker's race. Athletes need to be patient and need to react to what happens. I was trying to predict when the major move was going to be made even before the race. I was up on everyone's heels and using up lots of extra energy. I feel if I had been more patient in that race, I would have run a much better race.

He did have the strength to run an honest pace, evidenced by his own personal best at this and other distances (3.000m/2-mile). His race seems to have been lost on tactical misgivings.

[Matt]

Yes, those 'slow' races usually produce surprising medallists. See Mottram, Helsinki '05, Goucher in Osaka as well.

[Powell]

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

But that was in a race won in outside 13:45. If it's as slow as that, the whole thing becomes a crap shoot. Compare the Beijing final, which was run at an honest pace throughout, and Teg ended up half a minute behind.

[26mi235]

Tegenkamp's miss was a mere 0.03.

[williamwindhamjr]

German will medal someday

[Daisy]

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

I hear you and it was primarily Tegenkamp I was thinking about. But then, from my parochial perspective, i think about Charlie Spedding, Mike Mcleod and Brendan Foster. Obviously all very good athletes, but not necessarily good bets for a medal. Caveat here is no Africans in the mix.

[gh]

It's quite possible we will never see another American male medal over 1500m and longer.

I'm pretty sure the US will medal in the future. Some of these distance races can be a complete crap shoot depending on how the race pans out. Also some people just have great races, dare I say, once in a life time races. It has happened and will happen again.

Of course this is coming from the same guy that thinks England has a good shot at winning the world cup every four years (assuming they qualify). :wink:

My gut reaction is w/ DrJay, figuring the Africans have just too much going for them, but then one has to recall that Tegenkamp was agonizingly close to a medal at Osaka in '07 (less than a second in the 5K).

But then that leads me to this empirical observation (maybe somebody w/ more time than I would like to plot it out), but hasn't nearly all the U.S. distance success (men and women both) in recent OG/WC competition come in extreme conditions?

While it's easy to think of Tarzan swinging through a steamy jungle when "Africa" comes up, the altitude-trained Kenyans and Ethiopians obviously don't live/train in anything like that. So why is it that they perhaps have fared less well (compared to their Euro Circuit abilities) than Americans when it gets hot and wet?

(obvioiusly, the Japanese-trained Sammy Wanjiru has no such problems!)

[lovetorun]

Lovestorun: It would be great to see Hall keep improving, wouldn't it?

Joe, you know me so well!

[Daisy]

It's quite possible we will never see another American male medal over 1500m and longer.

I'm pretty sure the US will medal in the future. Some of these distance races can be a complete crap shoot depending on how the race pans out. Also some people just have great races, dare I say, once in a life time races. It has happened and will happen again.

Of course this is coming from the same guy that thinks England has a good shot at winning the world cup every four years (assuming they qualify). :wink:

[jhc68]

Lovestorun: It would be great to see Hall keep improving, wouldn't it?

[jhc68]

Wwjr wrote:
"Um did you read the whole topic ?I named Galen,German,you know american born.I know Lagat won medals.Thank you."

Will, Will, Will, don't get so testy. Of course people read the whole topic. You should read it again. Nothing was said about runners being American born. Legat is an American citizen. There is no disputing that!

[lovetorun]

With the last Olympic medal (over 1500) by an American male being just over 4 years old and the last WC medal in the reigning champion being an American I think that this line of thought is somewhere just short of being ridiculously inapt.

True, but Lagat is getting older, and may have seen his best days. Meb and Deena did medal in the OG marathon....and Teg just missed a bronze at WC...but that's just a handful in years of OG's and WC's.

My answer to the original question is: there's a chance that here and there we may sneak in for a medal. (love to see Ryan Hall get one)...but the USA is no distance running powerhouse...African's continue to dominate and I don't see that changing much in the foreseeable future.

[Dave]

Um did you read the whole topic ?I named Galen,German,you know american born.I know Lagat won medals.Thank you.

Rupp seems to be a great ollegiate runner, but does he really have the talent to win international competitions? At what age do 5/10 runners make their mark on the world stage? Early 20s or late 20s?