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Which american distance runner will medal first in the worlds or the olympics.Galen,German,Alan?I love the way German is progressing.Galen seems to be getting the speed that is needed to finish at the elite level.I Alan is better than any miler,but needs to learn how to race.
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I'm voting for none. The college system for American distance runners does not teach them how to race. Unless they start changing their race modules at the collegiate level we wont soon see any of our distance runners (middle distance as well) winning any medals. -
:cry:phsstt!Comment
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i would say bernard lagat still, although age will be against him soon, next would be shannon rowbury as the womens 1500 is a stagnant event and she already is at 4 minutes even, which gives her a good shot at a medal.
mens 800- symmonds is a longshot, the usa has the 400 meter depth to dominate the 400, but our b level 400 runners seen to be content with being 45 -45.5 second 400 meter runners than great 800 runners, and our top 400 meter guys like wariner why would he? he would have to sacrifice an event he is either 1 or 2 in the world, for an event that is new, it also might hurt his chance of being on an almost certain gold medal 4 x 400 team, so he would be trading either 2 golds or a gold and a silver for an event where he would be a question mark.
womens 800- same as men we could regularly get medals if our depth of 400 runners moved up, not all will have the aerobic capacity to do so, but we have so many 400 runners SOME could successfully move up.
men-1500 lagat as mentioned still great, but time is against him, webb ton of talent, but very inconsistent, fernandez to me can be really good, but what will his best event be.
women-1500 rowbury has a shot as does any women who gets under 4.
men-5 and 10k lagat would be our best at either, i think rupp will break the AR in the 10k in the next 2 years and possibly in a few years break 27, but even that probably wont be enough.
women-5 and 10k well flanagan did it last year so it can be done, but defar and t. dibaba along with abeylegesse (when healthy) and v. cheruiyiot are head and shoulders better than anyone we got.
steeple men lincoln is supposedly coming back so at his best would have an outside shot at a medal.
steeple women- barringer was on fire indoors she has a rewasonable shot at a medal.
marathon menand women verty unpredictable event olympics allowing only 3 per country would be a little easier than worlds which allows 5 per country, but on the right day we have several that might have a chance, rupp, abdi, meb (did it once) hall, ritz. and for the women flanagan, goucher, barringer, huddle. all would hacve a shot.Comment
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but as far as which will medal next (lagat,flanagan, meb and kastor recently have) i agree with the 2nd poster the odds are against any of them.Comment
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I'll put my money on Rowbury. And it will be this year. Webb will never do so. I think Lomong or Manzano (if his coaches let him tour Europe) have better chances than he does, but in a couple of years. Fernandez is a real talent, but can't se him medalling until he leaves College.Comment
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Lagat ran for Washington State in the 1990s, yet he won OG medals at 1500 and his great 1500/5000 double win in 2007 WCh. Webb ran only one year at Michigan, so why has he failed to win a global medal?Originally posted by guruof tracknoneComment
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There was this Willis guy who had some success internationally and I seem to recall him running around in a uniform with a big "M" on it. I think it was a blue and maize uni.Originally posted by GleasonComment
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College distance runners can medal while in a college program,but they have to change their schedule of racing during an olympic year.Comment
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Yea, but he was just copying the shirt of that Sullivan guy...Originally posted by DutraComment
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Jim Ryun was 2nd in the 1968 OG 1500, but competed for Kansas in 1968 & 1969.Originally posted by williamwindhamjr
Joaquim Cruz won the 1984 OG 800 for Brazil and the 1984 NCAA for Oregon. Earl Jones was 3rd in the 1984 OG 800 for U.S. and was 2nd to Cruz in the 1984 NCAA 800 for Eastern Michigan.
Paul Ereng won the 1988 OG 800 for Kenyan and the 1988 NCAA 800 for Virginia.
I don't know if they changed "their schedule of racing."noneComment
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Thank you gleason for proving my point.If you have a good college coach who sees the big picture than it can be doneComment
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Fernandez will be interesting to watch. No way yet to gauge his potential, but his rate of improvement has been phenomenal.
For the rest, except for an aging Lagat, I can't see any potential medal winners. Take a look at the depth of the world lists before Americans begin to appear. Rupp simply does not have the turn-over rate to threaten in a major championship. He is so far away from the level of the Africans that it seems improbable he will finish in the same lap at a WR or OG final.Comment
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Well Galen is getting faster.He ran a 3:57 indoor.In another 3 years,who knows.Comment
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What about Wheating? He seemed to impress last year. Nick Symmonds is as good a guess as anyone as Beijing showed that it's pretty much anyone's guess as to who's going to make the final!
I'm going to stick my neck out and say Webb.
He's got all the tools, he just needs to get his race plan right. Ok he's inconsistent, but the law of averages must mean he's got to have a good day at the right time!
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