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Multistars Combined Events Meeting - May 9th/10th

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  • #31
    Originally posted by scoe
    It is wrong to surmise that logic is the answer to how Ennis will place this year if she competes in the WC. .

    You and your stats can in no way whatsoever disprove my opinion that Ennis will come 5th/6th in the WC; . maybe she will and maybe she won't.

    What happened last year or the year before is not relevant, imo. I see no rational justification that because Ennis came 4th previously with 6469 and now she just MAY do better in Berlin that means she will place higher.
    A strange argument, because what also matters are the performances of fellow competitors who will just as likely improve this year from previous performances.

    I stand by my views that Ennis too small to get to anything better than a 3rd place at any time in the future.

    Time will tell and I will say my say in post Hep competition in August. 2009

    Your comments remind me of another little pash that a Brit lady on Athleticsdaily had about Sotherton.
    who is going to beat her and in what events does her hight limit her apart from the SP which i have already acknowledged
    i deserve extra credit

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by scoe
      What happened last year or the year before is not relevant, imo. I see no rational justification that because Ennis came 4th previously with 6469 and now she just MAY do better in Berlin that means she will place higher.
      A strange argument, because what also matters are the performances of fellow competitors who will just as likely improve this year from previous performances.
      Well considering that two of the athletes who finished ahead of Ennis at the World Champs have either retired or been banned and considering that one of the athlete you highlighted as a medallist isn't even going to be competing, it seems perfectly rational.
      http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by nevetsllim
        Originally posted by scoe
        What happened last year or the year before is not relevant, imo. I see no rational justification that because Ennis came 4th previously with 6469 and now she just MAY do better in Berlin that means she will place higher.
        A strange argument, because what also matters are the performances of fellow competitors who will just as likely improve this year from previous performances.
        Well considering that two of the athletes who finished ahead of Ennis at the World Champs have either retired or been banned and considering that one of the athlete you highlighted as a medallist isn't even going to be competing, it seems perfectly rational.
        what is with the height thing, it doesnt affect her speed or high jump 1.95 for goodness sake... the shot is now at 13.50+ why isnt it likely she could get around a 14m pb... her javelin is nos consistantly 40-43m so they her weak events and already they are hugely better than the issues she had as a junior...

        Comment


        • #34
          I thought Jess would have medalled in Beijing last year. Admittedly< i was suprisd by Fontain , and over joyed by Blonska finally getting it all together.

          I think Bogdanova is going to Berlin and it just means she wont be doing a heptathlon until then ( though Ho she has pre qualified I don't know as the Russians are normally tight ohn that unless you are a super star).

          Chernova is erratic.

          I think Jess wil be righ up there fighting for the BIG G. In Osaka her ( well for her) relatively poor HJ also effected her shot. As others have said she has steadily improved both throws.

          Suprised how quick her hurdles was here though.

          Would love to see what she can do in the 400 relay as well.

          does anyone have the ful results from this meet?

          ps is anyone going to Leiria for the revamed it's a knockout/ jeux sans frontiers?

          Comment


          • #35
            2:09.88 PB

            = PB of 6587pts!
            http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

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            • #36
              Add me to the list of those who think she's likely to be better than 6th in Berlin.

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              • #37
                Story w/ quotes now posted to front page.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Add me as well to that list, i just don't see how you can rationally argue that a 6th place is her limit.

                  She has improved isnce her 4th place in Osaka, and after her injuries of last year appears to be getting better and better as the season goes on.

                  If anything she seems a favourite for a medal, what colour that is we will begin to see in the coming months....

                  Comment


                  • #39


                    i predict 6th :?

                    considering this is her first Hep for 2 years coming off an injury there is room for improvement in every event.

                    she will go faster in hurdels
                    we know she can go higher in HJ
                    her SP is weak but improving
                    200 she can and will go sub 23
                    she has everything needed to LJ very far but has yet to get it together in this event this is the one area where i think she can make seious improvements
                    JT i getting better and better she will not stagnate like someone else i could mention
                    800 she is up with the best

                    obviously anything can go wrong in the Hep but how she can not be a medal favourite is beyond me
                    i deserve extra credit

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by mump boy


                      i predict 6th :?

                      considering this is her first Hep for 2 years coming off an injury there is room for improvement in every event.

                      she will go faster in hurdels
                      we know she can go higher in HJ
                      her SP is weak but improving
                      200 she can and will go sub 23
                      she has everything needed to LJ very far but has yet to get it together in this event this is the one area where i think she can make seious improvements
                      JT i getting better and better she will not stagnate like someone else i could mention
                      800 she is up with the best

                      obviously anything can go wrong in the Hep but how she can not be a medal favourite is beyond me
                      the fact the long jump is now her weakest event i think also speaks for her potential. She is now ahead of Kelly Sotherton on the all-time list....

                      a 12.97-1.95-23.15 athlete has to believe once she learns the technique she can jump well over 6.50 and thats big points...

                      do these seem unrealistic pbs? current pbs in brackets
                      100h- 12.80-12.90 (12.97)
                      HJ- 1.95-1.98 (1.95)
                      SP 14.00 (13.59)
                      200m 22.8-23.00 (23.15)
                      LJ 6.50+ (6.40)
                      JT 45.00 (43.08)
                      800m 2:06.00-2:09.00 (2.09.87)

                      ok so the long jump needs to really improve to go from 6.16- 6.50+

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Why don't people read what I said I predicted 5th for Ennis..

                        Kai says that he can't understand why other people regard 6th place as Ennis' limit. I never used the word. ''limit ''on my posts, re Berlin 2009.

                        It is quite possible there will be only 50/75 points between 3rd and 5th place at the WC.

                        Add to my previous list the name of the Canadian, Zelinka if she is fit and competing. Potential top six after her Beijing efforts.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by scoe
                          Add to my previous list the name of the Canadian, Zelinka if she is fit and competing. Potential top six after her Beijing efforts.
                          Zelinka is pregnant.
                          http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by scoe
                            Ennis for a probable top 6 place.
                            I'm often quite loathe to dispute peoples' predictions of what may happen months in advance - afterall, a lot can happen between now and then, and this sport is known for producing lots of surprises. And, of course, it is just one person's opinion, so who am I to try to make you think otherwise?!

                            However, I just wanted to throw a few facts into the discussion here and explain why I feel Ennis is on course for a medal in Berlin...

                            For the past five or six years, Ennis has always set her heptathlon PB at a major champs. In 2004 she scored 5364 at the Multistars meeting and then added almost 200 points to her PB at that year's World Juniors (her main aim for the year). The following year she opened her season again at the Multistars meet, this time with 5827. She improved by 64 points to win the European Junior title, and then by another 19 points to take bronze at the World Uni Champs. The following year she smashed her PB at the Commonwealths with 6269, then improved further at the European Champs. In 2007 she opened once again at the Multistars meet - again with a PB (6388), but ended the season with an even higher score - 6469 - set at the World Champs in Osaka.

                            Patterns can always be broken, of course, but there's a pretty clear one here with Jess. She always starts her season in pretty good form (often with a hep PB) and ends the season with another improvement - and she always sets a PB at a major championship.

                            With that in mind, it's relatively safe to predict that she'll score higher than 6587 in Berlin. We know there's room for improvement in her shot, javelin and long jump, so we're looking at a score between 6587 and 6650+.

                            Now, granted there are others out there who are also improving and formidable contenders (Fountain, Dobrynska, Chernova, Bogdanova, Sotherton, etc), but generally speaking when was the last time that a score of 6600 hasn't been enough to win a medal at the major champs heptathlon?

                            Beijing:
                            1 6733, 2 6619, 3 6591.

                            Osaka:
                            1 7032, 2 6832, 3 6510.

                            Gothenburg:
                            1 6740, 2 6423, 3 6420.

                            Helsinki:
                            1 6887, 2 6824, 3 6375.

                            Athens:
                            1 6952, 2 6435, 3 6424.

                            Paris:
                            1 7001, 2 6755, 3 6524.

                            Edmonton:
                            1 6694, 2 6539, 3 6472.

                            Etc, etc, etc... basically we have to go back 16 years (i.e. the JJK/Braun era) to find the last major champs heptathlon where it took more than 6600 to win a medal. Even if Ennis improves just marginally, she should definitely be in the medal hunt should all the current trends (i.e. scores needed for medals, Ennis's improvement) continue.

                            Ennis has surpassed Sotherton now both in terms of PBs and potential. Gothenburg aside, Sotherton has always finished in the top five at major champs, so logic suggests that Ennis should be well inside the top five in Berlin. Basically, something will need to go horribly wrong for Ennis to finish lower than fifth.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              All that just to say "so logic suggests that Ennis should be well inside the top five in Berlin. Basically, something will need to go horribly wrong for Ennis to finish lower than fifth."? :lol: :wink:

                              Jon's of course right that 6,600 is usually enough for a medal, you can't argue with the stats. However, what I would say is we're at a time where there are a number of top women capable of scoring between 6,450 - 6,700, it's never been more competitive at that level. The gap between gold and bronze is now lower than it's probably ever been too (142 pts in Beijing) One of a number of women could be at their best in all events and win.

                              We've not had Gotzis and Ratingen yet, so predictions would be better made after those events, but Ennis is definately oncourse for a medal. Looking at the last couple of seasons, I don't think she will necessarily improve her 100mh time in Berlin, nor her HJ, but I can see her improving in the SP - she said has thrown further in training regularly - and definately the 200m. Her JT is on an upward trend and she has the ability to run a faster 800m. So she could still be over 6,600 and have that appalling LJ. But if she can get to 6,30 then that would be fantastic and she should definately medal as she'll be near 6,700.

                              So far this indoor and outdoor season Fountain has been in great form. Unless she gets injured or has a disaster in one of the events she looks set to medal too.

                              The question marks over Chernova, Dobrynska and Schwarzkopf should be answered in the next 5 wks. All 3 performed poorly indoors: Chernova one LJ meet of just over 6m; Dobrynska a couple of lacklustre meets and Schwazkopf pulled out of her nationals after an atrocious start. Though she has the ability and will be on home turf, Schwazkopf needs to be at her absolute best in every event, she can't afford a drop in any of them, so she has the most pressure. I don't see Dobrynska repeating her 08 form, but then none of us expected what she did in Beijing. Chernova has the most talent of all and the most room for improvement (100mh, SP and HJ especially)

                              To clarify re Bogdanova, she does intend to compete in Berlin. The Russian selectors have given her a BYE because she won the European Indoors. Her coach announced she wouldn't do a heptathlon before Berlin, so that rules out Gotzis. Instead she's competing in individual events, focussing on her weakest, the JT, but also doing the 100mh and LJ, two of her better events. She will be the question mark, but not doing a heptathlon all year is a big risk. In the long I think she's ready to jump over 6.60m but she needs to improve her JT significantly. If she could improve to mid 40's she will be a threat. But it's a big 'if'.

                              Sotherton never ceases to surprise me with her competitiveness and mettle, but I just think she's too old now and she'll be about 5th.

                              The big surprise this year could be someone like Panteleeva, not yet 21, she did 6,430 last year (ranked 12th) which included a 50.64 JT and 14.77 SP. She may be being groomed for 2012, but the stats show she has the ability to be a threat.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Brettboy
                                Looking at the last couple of seasons, I don't think she will necessarily improve her 100mh time in Berlin, nor her HJ, but I can see her improving in the SP - she said has thrown further in training regularly - and definately the 200m. Her JT is on an upward trend and she has the ability to run a faster 800m. So she could still be over 6,600 and have that appalling LJ. But if she can get to 6,30 then that would be fantastic and she should definately medal as she'll be near 6,700.
                                Why don't you think that Ennis can go much faster than her current PB? Her two fastest times of 12.97 and 12.98 have only been aided by negligible
                                tailwinds and I'm sure she can improve by one-tenth, at least.

                                However, I agree I don't think she can go much higher than 1.95m though (and perhaps the 200m) but I don't see why she won't be as fast as Kelly over 800m. The shot and javelin are improving all the time but I would like to see Ennis throw the shot under pressure because it can break down sometimes, like in Osaka, which cost her a medal.
                                http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

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