Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Multistars Combined Events Meeting - May 9th/10th

Collapse

Unconfigured Ad Widget

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Brettboy
    replied
    Originally posted by Brettboy
    To clarify re Bogdanova, she does intend to compete in Berlin.
    Instead she's competing in individual events, focussing on her weakest, the JT, but also doing the 100mh and LJ, two of her better events.

    In the long I think she's ready to jump over 6.60m but she needs to improve her JT significantly.
    .
    Bogdanova opened with a 6.01 LJ at a junior meet in Sochi over the weekend. Doesn't look like she's ready to do 6.60 just yet.... ops:

    Leave a comment:


  • Brettboy
    replied
    Croflash, how do you see your German women doing?

    Leave a comment:


  • croflash
    replied
    Good to see Ennis back and doing well.

    Leave a comment:


  • scoe
    replied
    Assuming optimism and all going right for Ennis, with good weather conditions and following winds, 12.87;1.90;13.50;23.10;6.25;43.50 and 2.9.00 do not seem wild predictions. Those performances would total 6858.!!! That would def a medal. I know that I predicted earlier 5th place for Ennis, so evrything would have to be perfect for Ennis for 6858.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jon
    replied
    Tell that to Mikk Pahapill

    Leave a comment:


  • Powell
    replied
    Originally posted by mump boy
    that makes a lot of sense to me in fact i think it's quite conservative on the HJ 200 and LJ
    It wouldn't be realistic to assume she can perform at PB level in all 7 events. That just doesn't happen.

    Leave a comment:


  • mump boy
    replied
    Originally posted by scoe
    Unlikely that Ennis will do more in SP in Berlin than 13.50 or more than 44m in the Javelin.
    However 12.90;1.90;13.30;23.20;6.20;43.00; and 2mins 9.00 would give Ennis 6668 points. and these performances are all very reasonable for Ennis. I believe that after some disappointing Beijing scores we will see in good weather conditions at least 3 athletes over 6600 points.
    that makes a lot of sense to me in fact i think it's quite conservative on the HJ 200 and LJ

    Leave a comment:


  • scoe
    replied
    Unlikely that Ennis will do more in SP in Berlin than 13.50 or more than 44m in the Javelin.
    However 12.90;1.90;13.30;23.20;6.20;43.00; and 2mins 9.00 would give Ennis 6668 points. and these performances are all very reasonable for Ennis. I believe that after some disappointing Beijing scores we will see in good weather conditions at least 3 athletes over 6600 points.

    Leave a comment:


  • Brettboy
    replied
    Originally posted by nevetsllim
    Why don't you think that Ennis can go much faster than her current PB? Her two fastest times of 12.97 and 12.98 have only been aided by negligible
    tailwinds and I'm sure she can improve by one-tenth, at least.

    However, I agree I don't think she can go much higher than 1.98m though (and perhaps the 200m) but I don't see why she won't be as fast as Kelly over 800m. The shot and javelin are improving all the time but I would like to see Ennis throw the shot under pressure because it can break down sometimes, like in Osaka, which cost her a medal.
    I think she can run a faster 100mh definately, but not necessarily in Berlin. I think it's reasonable to expect around 12.9 in Berlin, so yes, faster than what she ran in Italy, but not much. She under achieved in the Osaka HJ, so if she can do 1.90 in Berlin that'd be great. Anything more would of course be fantastic. What I'm looking at is for her to repeat her 100mh and HJ times in Berlin and improve some of her other events. I think it's a lot to expect her to improve all of them.

    Leave a comment:


  • EPelle
    replied
    Panteleyeva (8-)) looks ready to drop her 800m down following an indoor PB; she has hit 2.12 on two different years. Can get reeled along for a 2.10 surprise and an outstanding score for the young Russian. First up for her, however, is getting used to competing outside of her home country (she's only 20).

    Leave a comment:


  • nevetsllim
    replied
    Originally posted by Brettboy
    Looking at the last couple of seasons, I don't think she will necessarily improve her 100mh time in Berlin, nor her HJ, but I can see her improving in the SP - she said has thrown further in training regularly - and definately the 200m. Her JT is on an upward trend and she has the ability to run a faster 800m. So she could still be over 6,600 and have that appalling LJ. But if she can get to 6,30 then that would be fantastic and she should definately medal as she'll be near 6,700.
    Why don't you think that Ennis can go much faster than her current PB? Her two fastest times of 12.97 and 12.98 have only been aided by negligible
    tailwinds and I'm sure she can improve by one-tenth, at least.

    However, I agree I don't think she can go much higher than 1.95m though (and perhaps the 200m) but I don't see why she won't be as fast as Kelly over 800m. The shot and javelin are improving all the time but I would like to see Ennis throw the shot under pressure because it can break down sometimes, like in Osaka, which cost her a medal.

    Leave a comment:


  • Brettboy
    replied
    All that just to say "so logic suggests that Ennis should be well inside the top five in Berlin. Basically, something will need to go horribly wrong for Ennis to finish lower than fifth."? :lol: :wink:

    Jon's of course right that 6,600 is usually enough for a medal, you can't argue with the stats. However, what I would say is we're at a time where there are a number of top women capable of scoring between 6,450 - 6,700, it's never been more competitive at that level. The gap between gold and bronze is now lower than it's probably ever been too (142 pts in Beijing) One of a number of women could be at their best in all events and win.

    We've not had Gotzis and Ratingen yet, so predictions would be better made after those events, but Ennis is definately oncourse for a medal. Looking at the last couple of seasons, I don't think she will necessarily improve her 100mh time in Berlin, nor her HJ, but I can see her improving in the SP - she said has thrown further in training regularly - and definately the 200m. Her JT is on an upward trend and she has the ability to run a faster 800m. So she could still be over 6,600 and have that appalling LJ. But if she can get to 6,30 then that would be fantastic and she should definately medal as she'll be near 6,700.

    So far this indoor and outdoor season Fountain has been in great form. Unless she gets injured or has a disaster in one of the events she looks set to medal too.

    The question marks over Chernova, Dobrynska and Schwarzkopf should be answered in the next 5 wks. All 3 performed poorly indoors: Chernova one LJ meet of just over 6m; Dobrynska a couple of lacklustre meets and Schwazkopf pulled out of her nationals after an atrocious start. Though she has the ability and will be on home turf, Schwazkopf needs to be at her absolute best in every event, she can't afford a drop in any of them, so she has the most pressure. I don't see Dobrynska repeating her 08 form, but then none of us expected what she did in Beijing. Chernova has the most talent of all and the most room for improvement (100mh, SP and HJ especially)

    To clarify re Bogdanova, she does intend to compete in Berlin. The Russian selectors have given her a BYE because she won the European Indoors. Her coach announced she wouldn't do a heptathlon before Berlin, so that rules out Gotzis. Instead she's competing in individual events, focussing on her weakest, the JT, but also doing the 100mh and LJ, two of her better events. She will be the question mark, but not doing a heptathlon all year is a big risk. In the long I think she's ready to jump over 6.60m but she needs to improve her JT significantly. If she could improve to mid 40's she will be a threat. But it's a big 'if'.

    Sotherton never ceases to surprise me with her competitiveness and mettle, but I just think she's too old now and she'll be about 5th.

    The big surprise this year could be someone like Panteleeva, not yet 21, she did 6,430 last year (ranked 12th) which included a 50.64 JT and 14.77 SP. She may be being groomed for 2012, but the stats show she has the ability to be a threat.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jon
    replied
    Originally posted by scoe
    Ennis for a probable top 6 place.
    I'm often quite loathe to dispute peoples' predictions of what may happen months in advance - afterall, a lot can happen between now and then, and this sport is known for producing lots of surprises. And, of course, it is just one person's opinion, so who am I to try to make you think otherwise?!

    However, I just wanted to throw a few facts into the discussion here and explain why I feel Ennis is on course for a medal in Berlin...

    For the past five or six years, Ennis has always set her heptathlon PB at a major champs. In 2004 she scored 5364 at the Multistars meeting and then added almost 200 points to her PB at that year's World Juniors (her main aim for the year). The following year she opened her season again at the Multistars meet, this time with 5827. She improved by 64 points to win the European Junior title, and then by another 19 points to take bronze at the World Uni Champs. The following year she smashed her PB at the Commonwealths with 6269, then improved further at the European Champs. In 2007 she opened once again at the Multistars meet - again with a PB (6388), but ended the season with an even higher score - 6469 - set at the World Champs in Osaka.

    Patterns can always be broken, of course, but there's a pretty clear one here with Jess. She always starts her season in pretty good form (often with a hep PB) and ends the season with another improvement - and she always sets a PB at a major championship.

    With that in mind, it's relatively safe to predict that she'll score higher than 6587 in Berlin. We know there's room for improvement in her shot, javelin and long jump, so we're looking at a score between 6587 and 6650+.

    Now, granted there are others out there who are also improving and formidable contenders (Fountain, Dobrynska, Chernova, Bogdanova, Sotherton, etc), but generally speaking when was the last time that a score of 6600 hasn't been enough to win a medal at the major champs heptathlon?

    Beijing:
    1 6733, 2 6619, 3 6591.

    Osaka:
    1 7032, 2 6832, 3 6510.

    Gothenburg:
    1 6740, 2 6423, 3 6420.

    Helsinki:
    1 6887, 2 6824, 3 6375.

    Athens:
    1 6952, 2 6435, 3 6424.

    Paris:
    1 7001, 2 6755, 3 6524.

    Edmonton:
    1 6694, 2 6539, 3 6472.

    Etc, etc, etc... basically we have to go back 16 years (i.e. the JJK/Braun era) to find the last major champs heptathlon where it took more than 6600 to win a medal. Even if Ennis improves just marginally, she should definitely be in the medal hunt should all the current trends (i.e. scores needed for medals, Ennis's improvement) continue.

    Ennis has surpassed Sotherton now both in terms of PBs and potential. Gothenburg aside, Sotherton has always finished in the top five at major champs, so logic suggests that Ennis should be well inside the top five in Berlin. Basically, something will need to go horribly wrong for Ennis to finish lower than fifth.

    Leave a comment:


  • nevetsllim
    replied
    Originally posted by scoe
    Add to my previous list the name of the Canadian, Zelinka if she is fit and competing. Potential top six after her Beijing efforts.
    Zelinka is pregnant.

    Leave a comment:


  • scoe
    replied
    Why don't people read what I said I predicted 5th for Ennis..

    Kai says that he can't understand why other people regard 6th place as Ennis' limit. I never used the word. ''limit ''on my posts, re Berlin 2009.

    It is quite possible there will be only 50/75 points between 3rd and 5th place at the WC.

    Add to my previous list the name of the Canadian, Zelinka if she is fit and competing. Potential top six after her Beijing efforts.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X