Bolt's 150m street race in Manchester, England on May 17th

[EPelle]

They may go all out for 50, then ease up slightly, or otherwise save strength by coasting a little at other stages of the race, but overall, they do not go as hard as they can for as long as they can.

They're not really coasting, per sé. They are getting out as quickly as possible at the start and attempting to negotiate the curve - this will be approximately 50m as you did state. What you are terming, "coasting", however, is the athlete's attempt to maintain their velocity whilst staying relaxed the next phase of the race, dvs from 50m to 150m; they are not slowing down. They are attempting to accelerate the final 50m whilst keeping their technique from shooting to pieces.

[jazzcyclist]

Well, even disregarding his shitty launch out of the blocks and the fact that the track was soaked, you still have to take into account the fact that he probably wasn't runnng 100% all out, since it was a 150m race, so he probably paced himself just a little and only ran 97% of full speed or so, to make sure he didn't die too hard before the finish line (sort of like how 200m runners try to run around 95% of full speed in 200m races for the same reason).

On a dry track with a good launch and running 100% all out, he probably would've been a tenth or two faster. And even more impressive, he took more than a week off of training just a couple weeks before this. When he said he was only around 70%, he wasn't lying. There's no way in hell he could be 100% after taking 10 days off training just a couple weeks earlier.

So if you take all that into consideration, and the fact that it was May, yea, I think he could run just as fast this summer as he did last summer. And if he gets tailwinds this summer instead of headwinds like last summer he could easily crush his own world records.

Here's my current Berlin prediction for Bolt (subject to change, lol):

100m: 9.5x

200m: 19.1x

You don't know that Bolt paced himself on Sunday, or that he paces himself in the 200. Not all 200 runners pace themselves. Michael Johnson and Tyson Gay believe in running the 200 all-out, while runners like Wallace Spearmon and Ato Boldon believe in holding back some in the first part of the race. How do you know that Bolt is from the latter school of thought and not the former?

I disagree. No-one can run 200 all out, and anyone who tries will tie up toward the end, so I would argue that all experienced 200 runners pace themselves.

To illustrate this, Bolt's last 100 on Sunday was 8.70. If you tack that onto his 9.69 in Beijing, you get 18.39. Not even Bolt can run close to that, this year or last. His 19.30 was pretty optimal last year. This year, I would be very surprised if he can knock more than a tenth or two off that time, if anything.

I never said that Gay and MJ were able to run the 200 without decelerating. Even the best sprinters start decelerating in the 100 after about 60 meters due to fatigue. When I used the phrase "all-out", I meant that MJ and Gay believe in running the 200 without any conservation of energy, and just letting fatigue be the limiting factor. And this isn't idle speculation and conjecture, I got this straight from the horses' mouths.
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... &start=120
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... c&start=60

[JRM]

I understand that the curve slows the first 100m a little, but only a tenth or two.

Did you actually read somewhere (research-wise) that the curve is 0.1-0.2s, or is that an opinion? If you have literature references, I'd be interested in seeing them.

[Daisy]

I understand that the curve slows the first 100m a little, but only a tenth or two.

Did you actually read somewhere (research-wise) that the curve is 0.1-0.2s, or is that an opinion? If you have literature references, I'd be interested in seeing them.

Has anyone actually analysed an athlete running flat out around the curves (in the context of a 100m race)? The closest I can think is comparing 10m interval splits in relay legs with 100m splits for the same individual. But it seems like it could be done as an experiment timing athletes on the straight and a standard curve when they race flat out for a 100m. I assume it could be done theoretically too, but empirical analysis might be more useful. It would be interesting if taller athletes have more of a difference than shorter athletes. Also the difference between lane 1 and lane 8.

[EPelle]

JRM and Daisy, this may help.

[JRM]

JRM and Daisy, this may help.

Interesting. Thanks for the reference. According to their model, the curve adds on between 0.29 - 0.17s for lanes 1-8 respectively. This is actually very consistent with the results I found with my model (including the 0.1s differential between lanes 1 and 8).

[berkeley]

I understand that the curve slows the first 100m a little, but only a tenth or two.

Did you actually read somewhere (research-wise) that the curve is 0.1-0.2s, or is that an opinion? If you have literature references, I'd be interested in seeing them.

No, it's an opinion - but based on evidence such as the fact that MJ ran 10.12 for the first 100 in Atlanta. Even if he ran all out, I doubt if his straightaway time that day would have been faster than 9.92. Probably closer to the high 9.9s. As I said, I'm not claiming to be scientific at all.

[berkeley]

I never said that Gay and MJ were able to run the 200 without decelerating. Even the best sprinters start decelerating in the 100 after about 60 meters due to fatigue. When I used the phrase "all-out", I meant that MJ and Gay believe in running the 200 without any conservation of energy, and just letting fatigue be the limiting factor. And this isn't idle speculation and conjecture, I got this straight from the horses' mouths.
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... &start=120
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... c&start=60

I don't want to be patronising, but there is often a lot of hyperbole in athletes' assessments and descriptions of their own performances, right after they run a fast time ...

[jazzcyclist]

I never said that Gay and MJ were able to run the 200 without decelerating. Even the best sprinters start decelerating in the 100 after about 60 meters due to fatigue. When I used the phrase "all-out", I meant that MJ and Gay believe in running the 200 without any conservation of energy, and just letting fatigue be the limiting factor. And this isn't idle speculation and conjecture, I got this straight from the horses' mouths.
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... &start=120
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... c&start=60

I don't want to be patronising, but there is often a lot of hyperbole in athletes' assessments and descriptions of their own performances, right after they run a fast time ...

Are you implying that they're lying? Why would they? And they should know whether or not they're pacing themselves or running all-out from the gun.

[berkeley]

I never said that Gay and MJ were able to run the 200 without decelerating. Even the best sprinters start decelerating in the 100 after about 60 meters due to fatigue. When I used the phrase "all-out", I meant that MJ and Gay believe in running the 200 without any conservation of energy, and just letting fatigue be the limiting factor. And this isn't idle speculation and conjecture, I got this straight from the horses' mouths.
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... &start=120
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... c&start=60

I don't want to be patronising, but there is often a lot of hyperbole in athletes' assessments and descriptions of their own performances, right after they run a fast time ...

Are you implying that they're lying? Why would they? And they should know whether or not they're pacing themselves or running all-out from the gun.

No, lying is much too strong a word - I'm saying that they may exaggerate, in an adrenaline-fueled post-race interview. Sprinters do not tend to have coolly analytical personalities. Terms like "110% effort" are common even though they are not accurate.

[jazzcyclist]

I never said that Gay and MJ were able to run the 200 without decelerating. Even the best sprinters start decelerating in the 100 after about 60 meters due to fatigue. When I used the phrase "all-out", I meant that MJ and Gay believe in running the 200 without any conservation of energy, and just letting fatigue be the limiting factor. And this isn't idle speculation and conjecture, I got this straight from the horses' mouths.
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... &start=120
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... c&start=60

I don't want to be patronising, but there is often a lot of hyperbole in athletes' assessments and descriptions of their own performances, right after they run a fast time ...

Are you implying that they're lying? Why would they? And they should know whether or not they're pacing themselves or running all-out from the gun.

No, lying is much too strong a word - I'm saying that they may exaggerate, in an adrenaline-fueled post-race interview. Sprinters do not tend to have coolly analytical personalities. Terms like "110% effort" are common even though they are not accurate.

Neither conversation was part of a post-race interview. Did you read the threads in which I describe the conversations? They both took place in 2007, six years after MJ retired, and they weren't talking about a particular race, but rather their general philosophy about how they approach the 200. In the 1996 Olympic 200 final, MJ, whose PR was 10.09, ran the first 200 in 10.12, so how much could he have been possibly holding back?

By the way not all sprinters approach the 200 this way. Wallace Spearmon and Ato Boldon have both said that they always believed in pacing themselves over the first 100.

[JRM]

Not that I was ever a world-class athlete, but I can say from at least my experience in a sprint there's no room for "strategy". Your brain shuts off and you GO HARD. Maybe one can train to "conserve" over the first 100m, but that's a loose term in this case. If you conserve too much, you lose. In my book, the 100m and 200m are all-out runs.

[berkeley]

I never said that Gay and MJ were able to run the 200 without decelerating. Even the best sprinters start decelerating in the 100 after about 60 meters due to fatigue. When I used the phrase "all-out", I meant that MJ and Gay believe in running the 200 without any conservation of energy, and just letting fatigue be the limiting factor. And this isn't idle speculation and conjecture, I got this straight from the horses' mouths.
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... &start=120
http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... c&start=60

I don't want to be patronising, but there is often a lot of hyperbole in athletes' assessments and descriptions of their own performances, right after they run a fast time ...

Are you implying that they're lying? Why would they? And they should know whether or not they're pacing themselves or running all-out from the gun.

No, lying is much too strong a word - I'm saying that they may exaggerate, in an adrenaline-fueled post-race interview. Sprinters do not tend to have coolly analytical personalities. Terms like "110% effort" are common even though they are not accurate.

Neither conversation was part of a post-race interview. Did you read the threads in which I describe the conversations? They both took place in 2007, six years after MJ retired, and they weren't talking about a particular race, but rather their general philosophy about how they approach the 200. In the 1996 Olympic 200 final, MJ, whose PR was 10.09, ran the first 200 in 10.12, so how much could he have been possibly holding back?

By the way not all sprinters approach the 200 this way. Wallace Spearmon and Ato Boldon have both said that they always believed in pacing themselves over the first 100.

I suspect that MJ was capable of running a lot faster than 10.09 on the day when he ran 19.32 - plus, he is an unusual 200 runner, being the WR holder over 400. I agree that he probably came closer than most to going all out all the way. In any case, I think we've played this topic out at this point ...