Galen Rupp is on track to break american 10k record

[williamwindhamjr]

Even though his time was slow in the pac10 championship,he ran the last 400 in 54 seconds.With that kind of speed he will be able to kick with the best of them.

[bhall]

The American record doesn't take that kind of speed. And 54point off of 29min pace wouldn't get you a wiff of a medal. 54point off of sub 27pace *might* get you onto the podium these days.

[williamwindhamjr]

Well it takes speed period to run against the africans and Galen is doing a great job not peaking before the summer.Galen may break 27 this summer in the right race.

[ed gee]

Rupp has not done anything to lead me to think he will ever run under 27 for 10,000 meters.

[lovetorun]

Yes, I think Meb's American record is safe for a while...I'd like to see Galen get in a good 10,000m this summer...he could get in the 27:20-30 range. But he'll be well back in the pack...African's dominate.

[26mi235]

Rupp has not done anything to lead me to think he will ever run under 27 for 10,000 meters.

I would be surprised if he does not get the AR and relatively soon. Sub-27 might be a stretch, but not too much and I think it is possible.

[Half Miler]

Rupp has not done anything to lead me to think he will ever run under 27 for 10,000 meters.

"ever" is a long time.

He's still an infant in distance running terms. Give him another 8 years or so, improving an avg of 4 sec/year. He'll get there eventually.

[ed gee]

Considering that no Caucasian runner has come close to breaking 27 for 10,000 meters (even with the availability of epogen) and that Rupp has run under 13:30 for 5000 once, I do not see him doing it.

[williamwindhamjr]

Chelanga from liberty ran a 2728 earlier this year.Galen beat him in a american record at 5k indoor,and during the xc nationals

[Half Miler]

Considering that no Caucasian runner has come close to breaking 27 for 10,000 meters (even with the availability of epogen) and that Rupp has run under 13:30 for 5000 once, I do not see him doing it.

Good grief, I hadn't looked at the all-time 10k list in a while.

OUCH!!!

First non-african is Barrios' 27:08.23 from '89, currently in 108th place.

So, perhaps wishful thinking on my part. :?
Based, at least partially, on the fact that US distance runners generally peak in their late twenties - mid thirties, and Rupp seems to have the mid-range speed necessary (I'd give him 3:36 or so for the 1500).

[AS]

I posted these two lists of top non-African 10s and 5s all-time in anotehr thread a few weeks ago.

27:08.23 Arturo Barrios MEX 1989
27:12.47 António Pinto POR 1999
27:13.81 Fernando Mamede POR 1984
27:14.44 Fabián Roncero ESP 1998
27:16.50 Salvatore Antibo ITA 1989

27:17.48 Carlos Lopes POR 1984
27:18.14 Jon Brown GBR 1998
27:18.59 Juan Armando Quintanilla MEX 1994
27:20.56 Mark Nenow USA 1986
27:21.53 Dieter Baumann GER 1997

27:22.20 José Rios ESP 2000
27:22.78 António Martins FRA 1992
27:23.06 Eamonn Martin GBR 1988
27:23.18 Vincent Rousseau BEL 1993
27:24.16 Francesco Panetta ITA 1989

27:24.95 Werner Schildhauer GER 1983
27:25.61 Alberto Salazar USA 1982
27:26.00 Hansjörg Kunze GDR 1988
27:26.29 Kamiel Maase NED 2002
27:26.95 Alex Hagelsteens BEL 1982

Source: http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_10kok.htm

Note: only one time since 2001...

12:55.76 Craig Mottram AUS 2004
12:58.21 Bob Kennedy USA 1996
13:00.41 David Moorcroft GBR 1982
13:01.72 Dieter Baumann GER 1995
13:02.86 António Pinto POR 1998

13:03.76 Stéphane Franke GER 1995
13:03.93 Mark Carroll IRL 1998
13:04.64 Alberto García ESP 1998
13:04.90 Matt Tegenkamp USA 2006
13:05.59 Salvatore Antibo ITA 1990

13:06.39 Marius Bakken NOR 2004
13:06.76 Francesco Panetta ITA 1993
13:07.10 Alistair Cragg IRL 2007
13:07.34 Enrique Molina ESP 1997
13:07.54 Markus Ryffel SUI 1984

13:07.59 José Rios ESP 2000
13:07.70 António Leitão POR 1982
13:07.79 Arturo Barrios MEX 1989
13:08.30 Anacleto Jiménez ESP 1997
13:08.44 Manuel Pancorbo ESP 1998

Note: only 4 times since 2001...

There isn't enormous crossover between the two lists, so perhaps Rupp could run a very fast 10000 without getting sub 13.10... but I would think that's what you'd be looking for first.

[Half Miler]

perhaps Rupp could run a very fast 10000 without getting sub 13.10... but I would think that's what you'd eb lookign for first.

I agree, but Rupp has run 13:18 indoors and I do think he's capable of 13:09 or so. In any event, it will be a number of years before he gets close to 27:00, but if he avoids injury I think he can do it.

Still blows my mind that the top 107 all-time performances are by Africans.

How "caucasian" is Salah Hissou, anyway?

[Brian]

Well it takes speed period to run against the africans and Galen is doing a great job not peaking before the summer.Galen may break 27 this summer in the right race.

This summer might be a little too soon, but get under 27? Why not? I don't think you're too far out on a limb here. He has talent and is doing everything right. But I think it might happen in a perfectly set up competition (not overly-rabbited, mind you, just a bunch of guys going after the record/big incentive bucks) such as Van Damme in an off-championship, non-Olympics year.

As far as getting his 5,000m. time down, that's important. But I do think he could run 13:10 right now, or at least get darn close. Goucher did, with an outdoor mile best only slightly faster than Rupp has done more than once + indoors. Only trouble is I also think 13:10 isn't equivalent to sub-27; maybe more like sub-13 = sub-27. Not sure what the books say about being comparable, just going off the top of my head.


Lots of good points expressed above on this both ways.

[EPelle]

Re: Galen Rupp is on track to break american 10k record

Even though his time was slow in the pac10 championship,he ran the last 400 in 54 seconds.With that kind of speed he will be able to kick with the best of them.

Were you not the same guy lamenting the fact that Rupp isn't running 27 minutes yet this season? That his first race was meaningless? This one was even slower. Your logic escapes me.

[jazzcyclist]

perhaps Rupp could run a very fast 10000 without getting sub 13.10... but I would think that's what you'd eb lookign for first.

I agree, but Rupp has run 13:18 indoors and I do think he's capable of 13:09 or so. In any event, it will be a number of years before he gets close to 27:00, but if he avoids injury I think he can do it.

Still blows my mind that the top 107 all-time performances are by Africans.

How "caucasian" is Salah Hissou, anyway?

They might all be Africans, but not necessary Negroid. I believe that anthropologists would consider Hicham El Guerrouj and other North African athletes Caucasoid.