a 1500/5000 double for Rupp at NCs?

[gh]

That prospect has been raised here before. Oregonian columnist predicts that's what will happen. Story now on front page.

[knite]

Re: a 1500/5000 double for Rupp at NCs?

That prospect has been raised here before. Oregonian columnist predicts that's what will happen. Story now on front page.

If to preserve his legs for the US champs, I would think this would be a lot better than doubling at any other distance. Will he win? I do not think so if it comes own to a kickers race where I can't see him winning. But his chances are as good as anyone else's!

[EPelle]

It wouldn't be out of the question for his big 10.000m race forthcoming at USATF. He's turning the wheels faster than he ever has at 800m. Two speed rounds (q and F) in the 1.500m and one hard pace workout in the 5.000m followed by a bit of fine-tuning and rest = good planning for the 25-lap distance a couple of weeks later.

[knite]

It wouldn't be out of the question for his big 10.000m race forthcoming at USATF. He's turning the wheels faster than he ever has at 800m. Two speed rounds (q and F) in the 1.500m and one hard pace workout in the 5.000m followed by a bit of fine-tuning and rest = good planning for the 25-lap distance a couple of weeks later.

Wait, the 5K outdoors has a prelims race in the NCAA champs meet. The only race that does not include a prelims are the men's and women's 10K.

Add to the fact that there are rounds for the 1500m's as well albeit I don't think both events have 3 rounds...

[EPelle]

Yes, the 5.000m has a Q race. I did not mention it, because it will not be the hard pace workout the final will be; only 600m of that 5.000m will be used at a significant pace. I mentioned the two 1.500m races, because Rupp will need every bit of his strength and speed to q and then contest the final.

[26mi235]

I doubt that the 1500 heats will be quite that hard, as there are not very many runners that can run 3:45 and they will not want to give their max for the prelim. I suspect an opening 64/64 is not beyond question, and with no reason to get any more than top 5(?) it will be a muted sprint to the finish in the final as well. Of course, the Big 10 1500 closed in 'about 1:50' according to Miller, who won it.

[KevinM]

I doubt that the 1500 heats will be quite that hard, as there are not very many runners that can run 3:45 and they will not want to give their max for the prelim.

I think it would be unusual for anyone in the field to have a 3:45 best -- 54 collegians have done so already this year.

[knite]

I doubt that the 1500 heats will be quite that hard, as there are not very many runners that can run 3:45 and they will not want to give their max for the prelim. I suspect an opening 64/64 is not beyond question, and with no reason to get any more than top 5(?) it will be a muted sprint to the finish in the final as well. Of course, the Big 10 1500 closed in 'about 1:50' according to Miller, who won it.

There are 54 guys right now with marks at sub 3:45. Not counting those who are or only have run 3:45 and haven't put out another effort. I suspect that those who want to make the final will race it like their life depended on it.

At least 16 of those guys are better than a 3:41-ish 1500m race. I don't think the prelims will be what gives him the pressure, but comign back for the final after the 2 rounds of the 5k and then possibly 1 (2?) rounds of the 1500?

Not sure....

[gh]

what it has taken to make the 1500 final this decade (the Q number given here is what the slowest advancer ran in the heats):

2000
(Durham, June 3)
(20 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:45.44)

2001
(Eugene, June 2)
(19 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:44.73)

2002
(Baton Rouge, June 1)
(20 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:45.19)

2003
(Sacramento, June 14)
(26 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:44.78)

2004
(Austin, June 12)
(27 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:47.49)

2005
(Sacramento, June 11)
(26 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:41.96)

2006
(Sacramento, June 10)
(26 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:48.34)

2007
(Sacramento, June 9)
(27 contestants, 12 finalists; Q—3:44.54)

2008
(Des Moines, June 14)
(26 contestants, 15* finalists; Q—3:43.86)
*=3 advanced on falls; I didn't include their times

So the average for the 9 years is 3:45.05.

[knite]

So what kind of effort do you think i will take for him and how will it empact him overall, especially coming back from another event.

I suppose he doesn't want to go up against Chelanga in the 10K and force himself to work for that title.

[gh]

he has two desires:

1. maximize points for Oregon, while at same time,

2. leave himself ready for the USATF 10K just two weeks later.

[26mi235]

Schumacher (ex-Wisconsin) would have his distance guys race a shorter race about 2 weeks prior to their big race (so 1500s (3000s) before 5000, 1500/3000/5000 before a 10,000.

[guruof track]

I don't see Rupp placing higher than 3rd in the 1500. But still a good strategy for Oregon as a team (ironic, I can remember Rupp getting ripped for being a bad teammate).

[KevinM]

I don't see Rupp placing higher than 3rd in the 1500. But still a good strategy for Oregon as a team (ironic, I can remember Rupp getting ripped for being a bad teammate).

I in no way think he's a "bad teammate", but wouldn't the "good teammate" move be to run the 10,000/5,000 double -- events in which he would be picked no worse than 2nd, vs. one where scoring is not a given?

[guruof track]

I don't see Rupp placing higher than 3rd in the 1500. But still a good strategy for Oregon as a team (ironic, I can remember Rupp getting ripped for being a bad teammate).

I in no way think he's a "bad teammate", but wouldn't the "good teammate" move be to run the 10,000/5,000 double -- events in which he would be picked no worse than 2nd, vs. one where scoring is not a given?

If he had no chance at qualifying for at the US Champs maybe, but given his season is not limited to 'college meets' that would be a move that is very questionable.