Rupp in 5000 and 10000

[jkjoregon]

I say 20 points...... :lol:

Event 7 Men 5000 Meter Run ** Qual: 14:12.00 **
RANK ATHLETE YR SCHOOL SEED TIME RG DATE
==== ======================= == ======================= =========== == =====
1 Brandon Bethke JR Az State 13:27.79 W 04-17 AQ4-3
2 Hassan Mead SO Minnesota 13:28.45 MW 05-02 AQ3-1
3 Chris Derrick FR Stanford 13:29.98 W 05-02 AQ4-4
4 David McNeill JR N. Arizona 13:30.63 W 04-17 AQ4-2
5 Shadrack Biwott SR Oregon 13:36.25 W 04-24 AQ4-5
6 Ryan Vail SR Okla St. 13:37.06 MW 05-02 AQ3-3
7 Rory Fraser JR New Mexico 13:39.85 MW 04-17 R3-9
8 Michael Maag SR Princeton 13:41.17 E 04-17 AQ1-2
9 Elliott Heath SO Stanford 13:42.59 W 03-27 R4-6
10 Emmanuel Bor JR Alabama 13:43.15 ME 05-02 R2-9
11 Alfred Kipchumba SO Portland 13:45.56 W 05-02 R4-7
12 Galen Rupp SR Oregon 13:46.41 W Regn4 AQ4-1
13 Mark Steeds SR Georgia St. 13:46.97 E 03-27 AQ1-5
14 Diego Estrada FR N. Arizona 13:47.37 W 03-27 R4-10
15 Chris Rombough JR Minnesota 13:54.37 MW 05-02 R3-12
16 Matt Leeder FR Fla State 13:54.42 E 05-02 AQ1-4
17 Joe Macdonald JR Butler 13:54.73 ME 04-17 R2-6
18 Tyson David JR Alabama 13:55.46 ME 05-17 AQ2-1
19 Matt Tebo SO Colorado 13:56.39 MW 05-02 R3-6
20 Ian Fitzgerald SR William & Mary 13:56.52 E 05-02 AQ1-3
21 Colby Lowe FR Okla St. 13:57.06 MW 05-02 R3-8
22 Lex Williams JR Michigan 14:01.62 ME 05-01 AQ2-2
23 Jacob Kirwa JR New Mexico 14:02.51 MW Regn3 AQ3-2
24 Jean-Pierre Weerts JR Auburn 14:05.23 ME 04-24 AQ2-3
25 Ryan Sheridan FR Iona 14:06.50 E 04-03 AQ1-1
26 Joseph Maina JR E. Kentucky 14:08.10 ME 04-17 R2-7



Event 8 Men 10000 Meter Run ** Auto: 28:45.00 **
RANK ATHLETE YR SCHOOL SEED TIME RG DATE
==== ======================= == ======================= =========== == =====
1 Sam Chelanga SO Liberty 27:28.48 E 04-24
2 Shawn Forrest SR Arkansas 27:52.10 ME 05-02
3 Dan Nunn SR Georgetown 28:24.10 E 03-27
4 Patrick Smyth SR Notre Dame 28:25.85 ME 03-27
5 Girma Mecheso FR Auburn 28:26.09 ME 03-27
6 Galen Rupp SR Oregon 28:28.68 W 04-24
7 James Strang SR Arkansas 28:29.27 ME 03-27
8 Yosef Ghebray JR California 28:32.27 W 03-27
9 Sean Houseworth SR Air Force 28:33.71 MW 03-27
10 Luke Puskedra FR Oregon 28:34.17 W 04-24
11 Samuel Kosgei JR Lamar 28:45.24 MW 05-02
12 Andrew Ledwith SR Iona 28:45.77 E 05-15
13 John Beattie JR Tulsa 28:46.27 MW 05-03
14 Jake Riley SO Stanford 28:46.84 W 05-02
15 Diego Mercado SO Oregon 28:48.54 W 03-27
16 Mat Ashton SR New Mexico 28:50.93 MW 05-02
17 Jordan Kyle JR Colorado 28:52.29 MW 05-02
18 Abraham Kutingala SR Alabama 28:52.45 ME 03-27
19 Daniel Mercado SO Oregon 28:53.02 W 03-27
20 Chris Barnicle JR New Mexico 28:53.20 MW 05-02
21 Jake Schmitt JR Washington 28:53.99 W 03-27
22 Jeff Schirmer JR S. Illinois 28:55.34 ME 04-16
23 Jon Grey SO William & Mary 28:55.48 E 05-02
24 Ahmed Osman FR N. Arizona 28:56.41 W 04-16
25 Stephan Shay SR BYU 28:56.71 W 04-16
26 Kiel Uhl JR Iowa St. 28:56.85 MW 03-27

[26mi235]

Re: Rupp in 5000 and 10000

[quote="jkjoregon"]I say 20 points...... :lol:

These guys are going to make a double a bit difficult (not impossible, given the indoor results), especially someone running 27:28, better than Rupp's PR. It is true that he ran against some of these guys but this one is for all the marbles whereas the prior races were important tune-ups.

Event 7 Men 5000 Meter Run
==== ======================= ==
1 Brandon Bethke JR Az State 13:27.79 W 04-17 AQ4-3
2 Hassan Mead SO Minnesota 13:28.45 MW 05-02 AQ3-1
3 Chris Derrick FR Stanford 13:29.98 W 05-02 AQ4-4
4 David McNeill JR N. Arizona 13:30.63 W 04-17 AQ4-2

Event 8 Men 10000 Meter Run ==
1 Sam Chelanga SO Liberty 27:28.48 E 04-24
2 Shawn Forrest SR Arkansas 27:52.10 ME 05-02

[Bruce Kritzler]

They weren't much competition for Rupp indoors. (even the milers - dmr).

[knite]

I think its too much b4 US nationals

[gh]

Fresh, I don't see anybody in the 5000 field I think can handle Rupp (with that factor being squared by the weather). Chelanga can certainly give him a run for his money in the 10.

[knite]

Fresh, I don't see anybody in the 5000 field I think can handle Rupp (with that factor being squared by the weather). Chelanga can certainly give him a run for his money in the 10.

I agree, he can mop the floor with the comp in the 5K, but the difference will be how Chelanga makes him work in the 10K.

[dj]

Fresh, I don't see anybody in the 5000 field I think can handle Rupp (with that factor being squared by the weather). Chelanga can certainly give him a run for his money in the 10.

We also figured Chelanga could give Rupp a hard push in the indoor 5k. But no one pushed the pace and they let Rupp kick away for a 13:41 win, 3 seconds up on Chelanga and Shawn Forrest.

Perhaps they've learned a lesson. My guess is that the race will again go slowly through 5k, not taking a lot out of Rupp.

[26mi235]

Chelanga might take the chance that Rupp will not follow an aggressive pace, settling for the chance that Chelanga will blow up or taking second to maximize likely points, as going hard in the 10,000 might hurt his 5000 chances because, while those guys are not quite on the same level, four or five of them are not far off and all could move past a depleted Rupp. Weather will play a part in this calculus.

Epelle, what do you think?

[EPelle]

Sure, I'll chime in.

Due to the weather, I don't think Chelanga will drive hard in this one from the start; he had a much more comfortable setting at CAL than he will have in Fayetteville.

Chelanga's challenge against Rupp will be in attempting to break him in an NCAA setting, where no one will attempt a new CR. Chelanga can not out-kick him on the track on paper, because there is a world of a difference between their 1.500m PB's (Chelanga is at 3.49,69 PB this season), and Rupp has run 1.49i and 1.50,00 outdoors at 800m.

Chelanga has demonstrated that he can run 4.24 pace or so without stopping, but I don't think he has the requisite tools right now (i.e.: Reebok) to break things up with a 4.17-4.19 on one or more occasions in the middle of the race to attempt to break Rupp; he can try throwing in a hard 3.000m in there, but, again, his 3.000m PB is far inferior to Rupp's (even his indoor 5.000m PB is right at the pace of his 3.000m best, which is not completely uncommon, as Mustafa Mohamed's 3.000m and 3.000m SC are not too far from each other).

Conclusion? I believe Rupp will have control of this race from the front and/or the back.