¶m10,000: Galen Rupp (Oregon) 28:21.45

[gh]

T&FN Formchart:

1. Galen Rupp Oregon
2. **Sam Chelanga’ Liberty
3. Shawn Forrest’ Arkansas
4. Patrick Smyth Notre Dame
5. ***Girma Mecheso’ Auburn
6. ***Luke Puskedra Oregon
7. James Strang Arkansas
8. Dan Nunn Georgetown
9. *Samuel Kosgei’ Lamar
10. Andrew Ledwith’ Iona

[Marlow]

Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?

[2 cents]

Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?

I think that Rupp will be able to win the 10000, but I do think that he may very well fail to win the 5000, especially if Chelanga forces him to run harder than he'd like in the 10, and then somebody like Mead may be able to triumph over Rupp in the 5.

[KevinM]

Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?

Over his head, or may have a matchup? The former is silly since it's hard to see him needing to run much faster than 13:50 (if that, in the heat) tomorrow night. The latter is obvious, but I'll still take the guy who is 4-0 in NCAA Championship races this season (including 2-0 in those races vs. Chelanga and 3-0 over Chelanga overall).

[gh]

Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?

Against whom? Chelanga whom he beat head-to-head at both the NCAA Indoor 5K and over 10K in cross contry last fall?

Or maybe you mean Forrest, who has a PR of 27:52 set in perfect Stanford conditions, whereas Rupp managed a 27:36 in the Beijing hellhole last year? (and is 20 seconds faster than Forrest at Stanford)

As in, huh?!

[jkjoregon]

I think that Rupp will be able to win the 10000, but I do think that he may very well fail to win the 5000, especially if Chelanga forces him to run harder than he'd like in the 10, and then somebody like Mead may be able to triumph over Rupp in the 5.

I don't think Chelanga can win the race, but he can make it brutal for Rupp, and the 5000 then could be ripe for an upset . :shock:

( I can hear my fellow Ducks murmuring " Oh Ye of little faith") :lol:

[duckedup]

I think that Rupp will be able to win the 10000, but I do think that he may very well fail to win the 5000, especially if Chelanga forces him to run harder than he'd like in the 10, and then somebody like Mead may be able to triumph over Rupp in the 5.

I don't think Chelanga can win the race, but he can make it brutal for Rupp, and the 5000 then could be ripe for an upset . :shock:

( I can hear my fellow Ducks murmuring " Oh Ye of little faith") :lol:

:wink: guess we'll have to wait and see!!!

[Marlow]

Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?

Against whom? Chelanga whom he beat head-to-head at both the NCAA Indoor 5K and over 10K in cross contry last fall?

meaning: everything I've read about Chelanga indicates he's learned his Rupp lesson and has used Rupp's favorite status as a Prime Motivator.
Is a 27:28.48 SB really so easy to dismiss, esp. since Rupp's PR is slower than than that? I'd also guess Salazar has Rupp on a program to peak in August.

[duckedup]

Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?

Against whom? Chelanga whom he beat head-to-head at both the NCAA Indoor 5K and over 10K in cross contry last fall?

meaning: everything I've read about Chelanga indicates he's learned his Rupp lesson and has used Rupp's favorite status as a Prime Motivator.
Is a 27:28.48 SB really so easy to dismiss, esp. since Rupp's PR is slower than than that? I'd also guess Salazar has Rupp on a program to peak in August.

i guess you could see it that way....OR the way i view it. galen has competed well every time he has stepped on the track this season. he has stepped down to the shorter distances that 2 years ago he would have gotten made fun of for, and done very very well. a guy who is a known 10k guy running 3:38/9 and running a 53.xx last lap of a slow 10k isn't going to roll over. i feel like chelanga is trapped because if he goes out fast, most likely galen will just draft off of him for 8k then drop him like a bad habit, and if he allows galen to get any breathing room in the first mile it's game over in that sense. the 5k and 10k are both galen's to lose.

[Marlow]

Or . . . if Chel goes out really hard, Rupp will remember his team responsibility and realize it's better to get the 8 here, and then 10 in the 5000, then the 10 here and be totally wasted for the 5000 on the very NEXT DAY!

[2 cents]

I can tell Marlow that you were not a distance runner, and certainly not one with a champion's mentality. I am not attacking you. You may have been a champion, but not as a tough distance runner. Rupp is not going to be thinking about the 5000 and just let Chelanga win. If somehow Chelanga broke him, then possibly, and yes, he'd like to conserve energy and win, but the way you phrase it, I really don't think this is likely, in fact it sounds unreal.

[duckedup]

Or . . . if Chel goes out really hard, Rupp will remember his team responsibility and realize it's better to get the 8 here, and then 10 in the 5000, then the 10 here and be totally wasted for the 5000 on the very NEXT DAY!

WTF. in that case i would NEVER want you on my team. i don't want someone half assing and giving up a place especially when my team is attempting a TRIPLE CROWN and im one of the best male collegiate distance runners of all time.

[duckedup]

and i have to add, what happened at XC nationals when chelanga tried to take it out hard? galen sat on him until the appropriate time and then ran him down. chelanga didn't want a repeat of nationals at indoors and he let galen go and that was the last anyone in that race heard of him.

[Louis IX]

To add on to what others have been saying, perhaps if Rupp was worried about facing formidable opposition in the 5K, he might back off the pace and settle for 2nd if Chelanga takes it out especially hard. However, with all due respect to the competitors in the 5K, he's on a different level than the rest of the field. He handled his major competitors sans Mead - McNeill, Bethke & Derrick - with ease after a 3:39 1500 at the West regional and has a roughly 10 second PR cushion to work with (13:18 indoors versus 13:27 for the next fastest, Bethke). IMHO, the front end of the double is the real challenge; if Rupp can handle Chelanga as most seem to expect (3-0 record vs. the Kenyan this year), the 5K may end up being a romp like the 3K was indoors.

[Dutra]

One thing to be wary of is humid weather which takes enough out of Rupp in the 10,000 that it affects him in the 5,000.