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¶m10,000: Galen Rupp (Oregon) 28:21.45

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  • #16
    Strong opinions here! I see both sides as plausible. Chelanga's PR clearly makes him too good to dismiss outright, as some have done.

    Galen's 4-0 record and confidence work in his favor.

    But...we CAN'T know what's in his head, really. What if he does feel that 8 points here and 10 in the 5k would maximize team points? As some have pointed out, he may not want to kill himself for the later race, just to beat Chelanga.

    Personally, I find this storyline most intriguing!

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    • #17
      I think that Rupp is the favorite, but I do think that it is an issue of meet strategy with the 5000s combined with the 10,000. A wild card is what the results are to that point in the meet, especially if the RUMOR that Centrowitz has a stress fracture. Is it too big a risk to race a hard 10,000 with a quartet of pretty respectable 5000 men (how often are there four at 13:30 or better to face the list leader?).

      I will note that 27:36 in Beijing is the superior mark, and while his is probably not at his season peak I think he level has improved since the OGs and he is likely to be the next AR.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by duckedup
        Originally posted by Marlow
        Or . . . if Chel goes out really hard, Rupp will remember his team responsibility and realize it's better to get the 8 here, and then 10 in the 5000, then the 10 here and be totally wasted for the 5000 on the very NEXT DAY!
        WTF. in that case i would NEVER want you on my team. i don't want someone half assing and giving up a place especially when my team is attempting a TRIPLE CROWN and im one of the best male collegiate distance runners of all time.
        I am most definitely a distance runner, but I am given to understand that a really hard 10000 is not quickly recovered from, especially in ONE day. If you don't want to let down your team, isn't it better to get the 18 points that seem eminently doable, rather than get 10 points for the 10K win and then maybe 5 points as you run exhaustedly in the 5000?

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Marlow

          I am most definitely a distance runner, but I am given to understand that a really hard 10000 is not quickly recovered from, especially in ONE day. If you don't want to let down your team, isn't it better to get the 18 points that seem eminently doable, rather than get 10 points for the 10K win and then maybe 5 points as you run exhaustedly in the 5000?
          Yes but they don't make movies about you or put up your statue at Hayward Field without a "balls to the wall" mentality -Think Pre or Salazar.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by jkjoregon
            Originally posted by Marlow

            I am most definitely a distance runner, but I am given to understand that a really hard 10000 is not quickly recovered from, especially in ONE day. If you don't want to let down your team, isn't it better to get the 18 points that seem eminently doable, rather than get 10 points for the 10K win and then maybe 5 points as you run exhaustedly in the 5000?
            Yes but they don't make movies about you or put up your statue at Hayward Field without a "balls to the wall" mentality -Think Pre or Salazar.
            D'oh! I left out the all-important NOT. I am NOT a distance runner!! ops:

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            • #21
              Thanks for amending your post, Marlow! When I read that you are "most definitely a distance runner," I was a bit confused, having read about a zillion of your other posts, which seemed to suggest otherwise.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Marlow
                Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?

                Hmm...you could be.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Dutra
                  One thing to be wary of is humid weather which takes enough out of Rupp in the 10,000 that it affects him in the 5,000.
                  This comment is the best theory I've heard on a possible Rupp vulnerability. However, the temperature and light rain are making things pleasant right now, assuming tonight's session starts up again.

                  I will say this: I watched him triple in person in College Station, and that big "O" on his chest should have been replaced with an "S."
                  "Run fast and keep turning left."

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                  • #24
                    rain really should not matter to people from oregon, as it always seems to rain in oregon, rupp will have no problems running in the rain.

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                    • #25
                      So if they run the 5000 heats after midnight, Rupp will end up doing a 5000 heat and the 10000 final, weather permitting, both on June 11th. Meanwhile, Chelanga may be sleeping already while Galen runs his 5000 heat. Could Rupp be in over his head?

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Marlow
                        Am I the only one who thinks Rupp is in over his head here?
                        I stated this on another thread earlier this week (or late last week): Chelanga can not match speeds with Rupp at any distance except the full 5.000m and/or 10.000m (the latter at which he is faster). This will not be a record chase in the 10.000m, however, due to it being a championship and the heat in Fayetteville.

                        Rupp has him beat in any head-to-head sprint, as his 800m is far superior to the entire field. He has him beat in a drawn-out kick, as his 1.500m is, again, far superior to Chelanga's. He has him beat in a break-away, as Chelanga can not keep up a distance of 3.000m during the middle of the race at a pace which is faster than his 5.000m PB. Rupp's 3.000m PB far out matches Chelenga's.

                        In other words, worry about what, exactly?

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                        • #27
                          The advantage (other than a seasonal best differential that is misleading in is size) is that Rupp has 5000/10,000/5000 and a hard 10,000 from the gun might tax Rupp too much.

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                          • #28
                            There is no plausibility of this being a hard 10.000m, however, given the weather. That leaves Chelanga, a pace runner, to attempt to defeat Rupp, a pace, strength and now speedier runner with some type of break-away during the 25 laps they'll be on the track. I think Rupp will respond to a move, but won't make it a shoulder-to-shoulder one.

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                            • #29
                              What if they run it at 1am like the 5000? :wink:

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                              • #30
                                Then they'd better have a devil on the track taking off the hindmost.

                                (NB: If it were contested here in Sverige in two weeks, it would still be light out at 01.00).

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