Mens' 400m Hurdles Quite Interesting

[Paul Henry]

With the coming of age of the chap: David Greene (23) who PRed 48.62 in June. It brought me to take notice that the mens' 400m is probably about to be one of the most exciting races on the circuits and at Berlin this season.

Batman: 48.38 (much work to do)
Clement: 48.38 (with tonnes of more work to do think he's trying to adjust his number of strides)
Vanzyl: 48.78 (can't put a finger on him)
Taylor: 48.70 (just too experienced to hold down)
Phillips: 48.36 (coming to age and form)
McFarlane: 48.80 (on his last hurrah)
Javier Culsen: 48.46 (looking good)
(of course in no order)

These guys are going to be in a battle royale through this season. And the field is at the best it has been in a long while.

[Paul Henry]

The wager is open as to who we think will be the first to go below 48 this season.

[paulthefan]

Prediction for first to go under 48, their chances in parentheses:

bershawn (.40)
clement: (.25)
angelo: (.20)
all others (.15)

[Paul Henry]

Prediction for first to go under 48, their chances in parentheses:

bershawn (.40)
clement: (.25)
angelo: (.20)
all others (.15)

Noted.

I think its good that practically eveyman at this point is below 49 and further many below 48.50. I can't say that enough.

[jeremyp]

Basically if Taylor and Clement are at their 95% best the "Batman" will be third. Taylor does not seem to get up beyond 90% except in alternate Olympic years, and KC is totally unpredictable, except for having one super fast time per year and being in on the kill come Championship time. My pick is KC, BJ, AT, or is it AT, BJ, KC, or maybe........

[26mi235]

There are other youngsters, and they sometimes make big performance leaps.

[AS]

The big leaps this season:

Tristan Thomas 1.14s (49.82 to 48.68) - 23 y.o by Berlin
David Greene 0.89 (49.53 to 48.62) - 23 y.o by Berlin
Javier Culson 0.45 (48.87 to 48.42) - 25 y.o by Berlin
Isa Phillips 0.42 (48.78 to 48.36) - 25 y.o by Berlin

And with Dutch & Anderson still to reveal NCAA form (and both 20 year olds)

It is a promising time...

[dal4018]

I wish that Michael Tinsley could have been in that 400mh race at Pre.

[knite]

With so many guys who regularly run in the 48's I am quite surprised that this event doesn't go high 47 on more occasions.

[EPelle]

Not as easy as it may seem to drop a few ticks from 48-point to 47-point. Felix Sanchez has only been able to run in the 47s four years (2001-2004). Kevin Young had only been able to get into the 47s five of the 12 seasons he was on the scene. Angelo Taylor has only been able to run in the 47-point range in four different seasons in his storied career as well.

Bershawn Jackson has managed to run in the 47s in three different seasons, but none since 2006.

It really is that hard.

[knite]

Not as easy as it may seem to drop a few ticks from 48-point to 47-point. Felix Sanchez has only been able to run in the 47s four years (2001-2004). Kevin Young had only been able to get into the 47s five of the 12 seasons he was on the scene. Angelo Taylor has only been able to run in the 47-point range in four different seasons in his storied career as well.

I wasn't speaking in the ability of one or a specific athlete, but rather there seesm to be a high number of 48x guys and there not being a result of at least 1 or 2 guys randomly popping out a sub 48.00. There's seems to be quite a few guys between 48.1-.3

[EPelle]

Alas, the top guys are not able to push each other into the 47s with any regular frequency, and the PB years whilst guys are at the top is not historically one of longevity.

I mention the top guys (even Derrick Atkins only had three seasons in the 47s in his career), because it is important to realise one fact germane to your argument: The top guys need to be at the top at the same time. The guys with the 47-second personal bests need to be in that kind of shape against each other; there are a cluster of 48,1 - 48,3 guys, but I'm afraid they are one and the same meet in and out.

[knite]

Alas, the top guys are not able to push each other into the 47s with any regular frequency, and the PB years whilst guys are at the top is not historically one of longevity.

I mention the top guys (even Derrick Atkins only had three seasons in the 47s in his career), because it is important to realise one fact germane to your argument: The top guys need to be at the top at the same time. The guys with the 47-second personal bests need to be in that kind of shape against each other; there are a cluster of 48,1 - 48,3 guys, but I'm afraid they are one and the same meet in and out.

This is true. I was having a bit of a flash back when the guys of old: Moses(though he was an anomoly), Phillips, Schmidt, Harris, Patrick, Young, Akebusi(sp), etc

[dal4018]

Basically if Taylor and Clement are at their 95% best the "Batman" will be third. Taylor does not seem to get up beyond 90% except in alternate Olympic years, and KC is totally unpredictable, except for having one super fast time per year and being in on the kill come Championship time. My pick is KC, BJ, AT, or is it AT, BJ, KC, or maybe........

I hope you can add these initials MT(Michael Tinsley) to the list this summer.

[gh]

since the 47-second club has only 33 members (fewer than 1 per year since the first one happened), I think it safe to say it's not an easy group to join!