The One-World-Record syndrome

[JRM]

The rampant predictions of Bolt breaking his WRs this summer bring me back to the post-Atlanta days. It wasn't a matter of *if* MJ would lower 19.32s, but rather by how much (and whether or not he would break 19s). Of course, we all know how that turned out.

This led me to a more general question. When someone runs fast, the immediate reaction is that they will run even *faster* the following year. How many sprinters have actually set WRs in the same event in consecutive or non-consecutive years, for *any* reason? Off the top of my head:

100m:
- Powell - no
- Montgomery - no
- Greene - no
- Bailey - no
- Lewis - yes
- Burrell - yes
- B. Johnson - no
- Smith - no

In the 200m, Mennea's 19.72A prevented many sea-level marks from being recognized. But nevertheless, there are many non-WR performances such as Lewis' 19.75 or Marsh's 19.73 that had people thinking "they'll go faster".

Many factors play a part here. Injury, doping, being one-upped by a stronger competitor, and just plain failure to regain one's peak form. When someone sets a WR, does that likely (statistically) indicate their ultimate performance has been achieved?

[Paul Henry]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

100% potent facts. Problem is there has been nothing statistically correct about bolt. Statistically speaking bolt should atleast be a vegetable right now if not dead.

[chriswitt]

powell break his own wr 9.77 to 9.74 never mind how many times he equal 9.77

bolt will break his own 9.69 most of the other guy you mention did it a lot older/

[gh]

Actually, Powell set WR in '05, tied it in '06, broke it in '07.

B. Johnson WRed in both '87 and '88 (and paid the price).

Calvin Smith doesn't belong in the equation: he doesn't get a sniff of the WR at low atitude and didn't have the same high-altitude opportunity the next year so it was like he was running two different races.

[JRM]

powell break his own wr 9.77 to 9.74 never mind how many times he equal 9.77

bolt will break his own 9.69 most of the other guy you mention did it a lot older/

Oversight on Powell noted. Equaling one's WR doesn't count, though. We're not discussing Bolt because he hasn't done it yet.

Also, Bolt's age is not a guarantee that he will improve. There have been many young, talented athletes hit their peak in their early 20s and subsequently drop off the map by 26.

[JRM]

Actually, Powell set WR in '05, tied it in '06, broke it in '07.

B. Johnson WRed in both '87 and '88 (and paid the price).

Calvin Smith doesn't belong in the equation: he doesn't get a sniff of the WR at low atitude and didn't have the same high-altitude opportunity the next year so it was like he was running two different races.

Can't believe I forgot B. Johnson's 9.83s, too. Redoing those stats:

100m:
- Powell - yes
- Montgomery - no
- Greene - no
- Bailey - no
- Lewis - yes
- Burrell - yes
- B. Johnson - yes
- Smith - no (*)

Different implications now.

[Paul Henry]

powell break his own wr 9.77 to 9.74 never mind how many times he equal 9.77

bolt will break his own 9.69 most of the other guy you mention did it a lot older/

Oversight on Powell noted. Equaling one's WR doesn't count, though. We're not discussing Bolt because he hasn't done it yet.

Also, Bolt's age is not a guarantee that he will improve. There have been many young, talented athletes hit their peak in their early 20s and subsequently drop off the map by 26.

Are you saying that 4years are too short a time do some damage or are statistics saying that. Not getting your point quite well.

You seem contradictory, using the modal occurrences to prove your intial point then saying that despite most persons improving in their twenties; by a slim chance, Bolt might not be one of those to do it?

[Powell]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

The rampant predictions of Bolt breaking his WRs this summer bring me back to the post-Atlanta days. It wasn't a matter of *if* MJ would lower 19.32s, but rather by how much (and whether or not he would break 19s).

Really? I don't remember any such speculation at the time. I thought most T&F fans did realize at the time it was a Beamon-esque performance.

[502CD]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

Really? I don't remember any such speculation at the time. I thought most T&F fans did realize at the time it was a Beamon-esque performance.

I knew a bunch, not that they are representative of any majority or anything, that felt because he slipped out of the blocks that he'd be down there again. I personally didn't think he'd get there again.

[Powell]

Rationally speaking, MJ was 29 at the time, and had been running consistently around 19.8 for some 5 or 6 years, except one 19.66 at the OT before Atlanta. It made more sense to assume the 19.32 was a one-off than to think he'd all of a sudden achieve a new plateau of consistency half a second faster than the previous one.

[toyracer]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

How many sprinters have actually set WRs in the same event in consecutive or non-consecutive years, for *any* reason?

Oversight on Powell noted. Equaling one's WR doesn't count, though.

You're making up the rules as you go along, LOL.

[JRM]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

How many sprinters have actually set WRs in the same event in consecutive or non-consecutive years, for *any* reason?

Oversight on Powell noted. Equaling one's WR doesn't count, though.

You're making up the rules as you go along, LOL.

My original question was "How many people *bettered* their own WR in a future year?", not how many people "tied or bettered" their WR.

[Paul Henry]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

How many sprinters have actually set WRs in the same event in consecutive or non-consecutive years, for *any* reason?

Oversight on Powell noted. Equaling one's WR doesn't count, though.

You're making up the rules as you go along, LOL.

My original question was "How many people *bettered* their own WR in a future year?", not how many people "tied or bettered" their WR.

The core sentiment that I got is one indicating that it might be stitistically unlikely that Bolt would better his record despite even though he is in the early stages of his carrer, ergo. stats presented which painted that picture. Kind a meandered a bit with some other sentiments made. Is the last post your final sentiment in the matter?

[tandfman]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

The rampant predictions of Bolt breaking his WRs this summer bring me back to the post-Atlanta days. It wasn't a matter of *if* MJ would lower 19.32s, but rather by how much (and whether or not he would break 19s).

Really? I don't remember any such speculation at the time. I thought most T&F fans did realize at the time it was a Beamon-esque performance.

I think you're right.

[knite]

Re: The One-World-Record syndrome

The rampant predictions of Bolt breaking his WRs this summer bring me back to the post-Atlanta days. It wasn't a matter of *if* MJ would lower 19.32s, but rather by how much (and whether or not he would break 19s).

Really? I don't remember any such speculation at the time. I thought most T&F fans did realize at the time it was a Beamon-esque performance.

I think you're right.

Precisely.