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According to twitter (http://twitter.com/Lagat1500), and confirmed by USATF (http://www.usatf.org/events/2009/USAOut ... status.asp), Lagat has declared in the 800 and is keeping the 5000 open just in case. Says he'd like to go sub 1:46 and get a PB. Since he closed in Athens in 1:46 you'd think this should be doable. He just hasn't run many 800s.
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As I posted the other day in the long Nationals thread, he's going for an 800 PR right after Eugene (Lausanne, I believe) and he wants to use Nationals as a chance to work on his speed. -
Lagat has actually run at least 18 800m races in his career, with his top-10 average at 1.46,58 (including one indoor mark). Though he may have been capable of running faster at any given point during his sub-3.30 seasons, I believe he'll stay in the 1.46-range as far as his actual recorded lifetime best. He's at a point now where his 5.000m training requires a different approach to training than his speed was able to provide him at 1.500m during the peak of his career. I simply don't think he has ever been able to run two laps without stopping in at least 52,9 seconds per lap, though he's been able to close like that. Classic example just recently occured at NCAA with Chris Derrick, who can't break 1.55, but ran under 2.00 in that fast 5.000m finish.Comment
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Sorry to be contrary, but it makes no sense at Lagat's level that he can't run a one off 800m in under 1:46, while at the same time being able to run 1:47 at the end of a decent 1500m!
I could understand that this doesn't mean he would necessarily run 1:44.0, but there's something wrong if he can't break 1:46.Comment
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You can color me surprised if he doesn't break 1:46Comment
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Eight-10-six-four-three are the places where Lagat's finished in his top-five races, respectively, none of which have been under 1.46,00.
Alan Webb was a 3.48 miler off of a 1.46,09 lifetime best and 1.47,13 season best. Bernard Lagat was also a 3.48 miler the same season, in the same race. He ran 1.47,07 that season, a season which followed two other 800m runs the year before in 1.46,96 and 1.47,50 (altitude). He also broke 13.00 for the first time that season. I believe Lagat's in the same type of 5.000m condition, but not in the same mile condition at this point in time. Having such a belief, I reason that his 800m will remain consistent with his mile time, not his 5.000m time.
With complete respect to Lagat, history's second-fastest at 1.500m, it has been three seasons since he broke 3.32,76, the last which followed seven-consecutive under 3.31,00.
He's become stronger, absolutely. Has he become strong enough to run 52,9 without stopping two-consecutive laps?
Hopefully I'm wrong.
Has Rui Silva, another great kicker with blazing closing speed and endurance, run under 1.46,00 in the past five seasons?Comment
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There is precedent for being in more distance shape yet still record a fast 800 time: Morceli in '94 focused on longer distances (3000/5000): four days after his rainy Zurich 5000m victory in 13:03.85, he ran a 1:44.89 800m (only 0.1 off his all time 800m PR). His best 1500 that year was 3:30.61.
Also, Lagat ran 1:46.02 way back in '98 when he also ran a 3:34 SB. Just off eleven years of maturity one would give him the benefit of the doubt of taking 0.03 off of that mark.Comment
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For the record, I see where you are coming from and definitely agree that there are certain athletes which, when they shift their training to more distance-oriented work, lose a little from the speed-end. I guess it comes down to how much one believes Lagat is replicating is training from 2005 (the last year he ran the 800, and the same year when he started focusing on the 5000). I believe with four years of training and experience behind him, he is probably in better form than that 2005 mark indicates, especially if he may be slanting his training to take down his 1:46.00 PR.Originally posted by EPelle
Side note: Rui Silva of the last 5 years might not be the best example: he has been injury-riddled since 2004, and his performances this year (Euro Indoor Champ, Euro Team Champ) are because he is finally healthy for once:
http://road-running.blogspot.com/2009/03/rui-silva.html
“Four the last four years, I haven't been able to compete in a major championships because of injuries or because I wasn't fit because of injuries so this gold medal makes me very happy."Comment
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The precedences are not disputed. Said Aouita had a terrific run in 1987 between 800m (1.44,74) and 5.000m (12.58,39). He was at his peak, however.
Morceli had already been established in the 1.44 range back in 1991. It's too bad Daniel Komen didn't run an 800m and/or 1.000m in 1997 (or anytime during his career).
Actually, Lagat has had five years of maturity since his 2003 PB (not 1998), but each of his results have been the same: no race under 1.46,00, and, on top of that, one can't blame it on just running tactical races for the wins.
His top-five times are (winners in parenthesis):
1.46,00 (2003 - 8th; 1.44,71)
1.46,02 (1998 - 10th; 1.44,20)
1.46,06 (1999 - 6th; 1.44,77)
1.46,17 (2003 - 4th; 1.45,03)
1.46,85 (2000 - 3rd - 1.44,27)
Lagat has, historically, either not been able to sustain a fast, early pace, or he has waited too long to kick, as four of his five best times were in 1.44 races. Perhaps, after five years of preparations since his PB, he'll go out harder, earlier, and utilise his 5.000m endurance to bring him home faster than he ever has.Comment
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At what point do we start adding seconds for four years of "experience" instead of taking them off?Originally posted by joeltetreault
Kip isn't exactly a spring chicken.Comment
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Not sure how many times Webb ran 800m that year and whether he took them seriously, but his efforts in 2007 reflect his true 800m potential, perhaps.Alan Webb was a 3.48 miler off of a 1.46,09 lifetime best and 1.47,13 season best. Bernard Lagat was also a 3.48 miler the same season, in the same race.
Webb ~ 3:46.91 Mile and 1:43.84 800m.
His 1500m ability not quite as good as vintage Lagat's, but surely Lagat should have been able to approach 1:44.0 when he was running sub 3:30!?Comment
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You would have thought so, but in four out of five of the 1.44 races he was in which produced his best times, he was nowhere near the front. Conversely, he has been more than one second back of the winning time in each of his five-best races.
Lagat plans for his seasons three months ahead of time, and, as he has previously stated in interviews (Men's Racing, for example), he doesn't change things up much from season to season. If he has not previously run 1.44-1.45 when given the best of opportunities on the GP circuit -- and he was at one point faster than he is now, why would it be suggested that he could achieve this time now that he is on the wrong side of superior?Comment
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Re: Good news for Webb
Webb chances have now greatly improved in the 1500. All he has to worry about is Manzano and Lamong. Myers and Lukezic have had a hard time beating Webb in these types of races. Even in his current slump Webb can take this field, and if he is out of his funk he will win.Originally posted by schmke
Webb already has the A standard. Even during his dreadful season last year he somehow managed to run a 3:35 in Europe.
Lamong
Webb
ManzanoComment
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Re: Good news for Webb
There is a slew of young guys that are getting pretty fast 3:36/3:37. With so many in the hunt, one of them could easily seek in during a Champs race, especially with Manzano and Webb being inconsistent and Lomong not having shown a strong list of performances so far.Originally posted by 15mphComment
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Eldrick would be telling us that old days' Lagat couldn't possibly have been as slow as 1:45.00 (3:26.x/1:45=1.965) and I tend to agree with him.
Now in 2009 this is another matter. I can say I wouldn't be surprised to see him NOT dip under 1:46.Comment
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