Lagat declares in the 800

[EPelle]

Webb may (or not) be faster at this point. One question of concern for both Webb and Lagat is their perceived ideas of how running rounds will affect their bodies before their respective finals, when it is assumed they will need to draw a line between themselves and 1.46 and 3.37 runners behind them.

Lagat may be worth "x" in the 800m in a one-off race where he is rather fresh and has an excellent condition set out to accomplish it. Has he, since running the Pac-10 800m 10 years ago, run an 800m round before another one in the same meet - or two 800m races in a short period of time? And, subsequently, has he had to run a final in a personal best after two earlier 800m races within a very confined period of time?

The answers to the above are a resounding, "no".

I don't wish Lagat any ill-will in his attempts to push the envelop, I just wonder if he has enough stamps in his wallet to get that postage home in time.

[15mph]

well, if you think that his 1500PB/1.5 gives 2:17.5 per km you realize that 1000m was no monster performance from him.

Also, the fact that x time in the 1000 equates to y time in the 800 (according to the tables...) doesn't mean that his fitness level allows him to achieve y given x. More so since he's more geared towards 1500/3000/5000 so his shorter distances will suffer a little.

Lamong did run a 3:53 mile this year. Until Webb gets out of his slump he is the top US miler when Lagat is not running. It would be painful to watch a 3:46 miler like Webb get beaten by a bunch of journeymen 3:37 runners. I am assuming the 3:55 mile Webb ran roughly a month ago would now translate to at least a 3:53. If he is just a few second faster that will make the difference.

[midnightsun]

well, if you think that his 1500PB/1.5 gives 2:17.5 per km you realize that 1000m was no monster performance from him.

Also, the fact that x time in the 1000 equates to y time in the 800 (according to the tables...) doesn't mean that his fitness level allows him to achieve y given x. More so since he's more geared towards 1500/3000/5000 so his shorter distances will suffer a little.

[KevinM]

Re: Good news for Webb

One stat that has not been mentioned is his 2:16.27 1000m from 2007 a few weeks before his 1500/5000 Osaka double. Using the IAAF scoring tables that comes out to about a 1:45.55 800....

He also ran 2:16.18 last year in Gateshead. I'm not sure why this isn't listed on Pela's site.

[joeltetreault]

Re: Good news for Webb

One stat that has not been mentioned is his 2:16.27 1000m from 2007 a few weeks before his 1500/5000 Osaka double. Using the IAAF scoring tables that comes out to about a 1:45.55 800....

[26mi235]

Re: Good news for Webb

There is a slew of young guys that are getting pretty fast 3:36/3:37. With so many in the hunt, one of them could easily seek in during a Champs race, especially with Manzano and Webb being inconsistent and Lomong not having shown a strong list of performances so far.

Just curious who you think those young guys are??? I think some of the young guys can run 3:36/3:37 ins a one off raceor possibly a race that is VERY evenly paced. I highly doubt that will be the case at the Champs though.

SHould be interesting though.

There are enough of them, from Centrowitz to Ulrey to Miller and Bolas,... that one of them might have an additional breakthrough. Is Centro over his foot problem? The rest might actual do him good, but I will note that almost all of the collegians have already had a long season with their training focused on peaking two weeks ago (except for a few, like a couple of UO guys and CU gal).

[knite]

One would have to conclude that he was certainly in 1:45 shape though, even if he hadn't put one out there.

Geez, when you think about his career efforts, its quite fascinating, IMO.

[guruof track]

Re: Good news for Webb

There is a slew of young guys that are getting pretty fast 3:36/3:37. With so many in the hunt, one of them could easily seek in during a Champs race, especially with Manzano and Webb being inconsistent and Lomong not having shown a strong list of performances so far.

Just curious who you think those young guys are??? I think some of the young guys can run 3:36/3:37 ins a one off raceor possibly a race that is VERY evenly paced. I highly doubt that will be the case at the Champs though.

SHould be interesting though.

[EPelle]

I also agree about the ability, much the same way about El Guerrouj, who closed faster in Athens than his lifetime best was in the open.

Interestingly enough, El G's 3.48,69y at the 1995 Weltklasse -- his first sub-3.50 -- was run on a 1.47,18 PB earlier that season along with a 2.16,85 (1.49,48 pace).

Comparatively, Lagat, El G and Webb were each competitive between 3.48,38y - 3.48,69y - 3.48,92y with 1.47,07 - 1.47,13 - 1.47,18 SB's.

Fascinating coincidence.

Finally, the year Lagat ran his 1.500m and mile PBs, he contested no 800m runs and had a 13.30,54 early-season best. Now he's at 13.03,06 with a 3.36,38 SB and going back down to the 800m.

[midnightsun]

Eldrick would be telling us that old days' Lagat couldn't possibly have been as slow as 1:45.00 (3:26.x/1:45=1.965) and I tend to agree with him.

Now in 2009 this is another matter. I can say I wouldn't be surprised to see him NOT dip under 1:46.

[26mi235]

Re: Good news for Webb

According to twitter (http://twitter.com/Lagat1500), and confirmed by USATF (http://www.usatf.org/events/2009/USAOut ... status.asp), Lagat has declared in the 800 and is keeping the 5000 open just in case. Says he'd like to go sub 1:46 and get a PB. Since he closed in Athens in 1:46 you'd think this should be doable. He just hasn't run many 800s.

Webb chances have now greatly improved in the 1500. All he has to worry about is Manzano and Lamong. Myers and Lukezic have had a hard time beating Webb in these types of races. Even in his current slump Webb can take this field, and if he is out of his funk he will win.
Webb already has the A standard. Even during his dreadful season last year he somehow managed to run a 3:35 in Europe.

Lamong
Webb
Manzano

There is a slew of young guys that are getting pretty fast 3:36/3:37. With so many in the hunt, one of them could easily seek in during a Champs race, especially with Manzano and Webb being inconsistent and Lomong not having shown a strong list of performances so far.

[15mph]

Re: Good news for Webb

According to twitter (http://twitter.com/Lagat1500), and confirmed by USATF (http://www.usatf.org/events/2009/USAOut ... status.asp), Lagat has declared in the 800 and is keeping the 5000 open just in case. Says he'd like to go sub 1:46 and get a PB. Since he closed in Athens in 1:46 you'd think this should be doable. He just hasn't run many 800s.

Webb chances have now greatly improved in the 1500. All he has to worry about is Manzano and Lamong. Myers and Lukezic have had a hard time beating Webb in these types of races. Even in his current slump Webb can take this field, and if he is out of his funk he will win.
Webb already has the A standard. Even during his dreadful season last year he somehow managed to run a 3:35 in Europe.

Lamong
Webb
Manzano

[EPelle]

You would have thought so, but in four out of five of the 1.44 races he was in which produced his best times, he was nowhere near the front. Conversely, he has been more than one second back of the winning time in each of his five-best races.

Lagat plans for his seasons three months ahead of time, and, as he has previously stated in interviews (Men's Racing, for example), he doesn't change things up much from season to season. If he has not previously run 1.44-1.45 when given the best of opportunities on the GP circuit -- and he was at one point faster than he is now, why would it be suggested that he could achieve this time now that he is on the wrong side of superior?

[deanouk]

Alan Webb was a 3.48 miler off of a 1.46,09 lifetime best and 1.47,13 season best. Bernard Lagat was also a 3.48 miler the same season, in the same race.

Not sure how many times Webb ran 800m that year and whether he took them seriously, but his efforts in 2007 reflect his true 800m potential, perhaps.

Webb ~ 3:46.91 Mile and 1:43.84 800m.

His 1500m ability not quite as good as vintage Lagat's, but surely Lagat should have been able to approach 1:44.0 when he was running sub 3:30!?

[K.I.R.]

I believe with four years of training and experience behind him, he is probably in better form than that 2005 mark indicates, especially if he may be slanting his training to take down his 1:46.00 PR.

At what point do we start adding seconds for four years of "experience" instead of taking them off?
Kip isn't exactly a spring chicken.