2009 USATF: m400 - LaShawn Merritt 44.50

[EPelle]

I wouldn't think of giving you a break. Carter is certainly ahead of 10,21, and he's demonstrated he can hold 42,57 pace through 300m of a 400m. If Carter has the potential of running 19,88, and is both faster at 100m and 300m than Johnson, Carter should run under 44,50 without a shadow of a doubt. Where did you get sub-44,00?

[2 cents]

Lest one not forget, he also ran 3/4 of his race distance at 42,57 pace. In a one-off on his current form, he could likely surpass 44,53 with relative ease.

Lest one not forget, in 1990 Roberto Hernandez ran 3/4 of his race distance at 41.97 pace in running a 31.48. That same year his best 400 was his lifetime best of 44.14. Yet you think Carter can run under 44.53 with "relative ease." What a joke.

[guruof track]

What did he come through the 300 at in that 400??

I think he can run 44.6ish right now, with rounds.

[2 cents]

I wouldn't think of giving you a break. Carter is certainly ahead of 10,21, and he's demonstrated he can hold 42,57 pace through 300m of a 400m. If Carter has the potential of running 19,88, and is both faster at 100m and 300m than Johnson, Carter should run under 44,50 without a shadow of a doubt. Where did you get sub-44,00?

Yes, if Carter could run 19.88 right now, I agree he could run 44.53, but don't you understand, he cannot. I got sub 44 because of your silly reasoning. You think that just because MJ ran a 300 in a certain time means that Carter, running a similar time, can match MJ in other distances for that year. So by your silly reasoning, since Carter ran faster than Quincy Watts for 300 in a given year, you think he could beat Quincy's 400 for that year. Don't you understand, that 300 for MJ was an easy victory. I don't think anybody was within a second of him.

[EPelle]

Lest one not forget, in 1990 Roberto Hernandez ran 3/4 of his race distance at 41.97 pace in running a 31.48. That same year his best 400 was his lifetime best of 44.14. Yet you think Carter can run under 44.53 with "relative ease." What a joke.

The joke is less funny when you look at the 20,34 Hernandez ran to the 20,27 for Carter in the same season both ran their 300m times. Carter is up 0,14 on the 32,07 Hernandez ran in 1989, the year he ran 44,58 and 20,60. Is Carter faster at either 200m or 300m? Or both? That would categorically put him in contention to run as fast as 44,58.

[2 cents]

I am sorry Epelle, I cannot continue these exchanges with you. It is futile. Your last post makes no sense at all. Maybe somebody could interpret it into some semblance of coherence for me.

[EPelle]

So by your silly reasoning, since Carter ran faster than Quincy Watts for 300 in a given year, you think he could beat Quincy's 400 for that year. Don't you understand, that 300 for MJ was an easy victory. I don't think anybody was within a second of him.

I am not connecting Watts to Carter, as Watts had neither a 100m or a 200m to compare. Johnson was not faster than Carter SB wise at 200m (yes, adjusted for wind) to-date, and was slower at 100m. Carter has run 400m on more than one occasion, and has a PB at 44,53. For Carter to withdraw 0,03 or more from his account won't break the bank. It is not unreasonable to suggest that based on his faster sprint times than Johnson and his finishing time at 300m (independent of Johnson's race strategy and/or nearest competitor), Carter can run faster than 44,50.

[EPelle]

I am sorry Epelle, I cannot continue these exchanges with you. It is futile. Your last post makes no sense at all. Maybe somebody could interpret it into some semblance of coherence for me.

It isn't difficult: Hernandez ran 20,60 to Carter's 20,27 the same season both ran their nearest 300m times, dvs 31,93 to 32,07. Hernandez also ran 44,58 that season. Since you're comparing Hernandez, is Carter faster at either 200m or 300m? Or both? Would that not categorically put him in contention to run as fast as 44,58, or the time Hernandez, who was both slower at half the distance and at 300m, achieved?

edit: "He has no chance of running a 44.53." Really? I believe there are some parametres established to demonstrate that he has some chance.

[justblaze1011]

SO ANYWAY....

That 3rd spot gonna be up for grabs!!!

[jumpsman]

kerron will be in the top three.

[imaginative]

It isn't difficult: Hernandez ran 20,60 to Carter's 20,27 the same season both ran their nearest 300m times, dvs 31,93 to 32,07. Hernandez also ran 44,58 that season. Since you're comparing Hernandez, is Carter faster at either 200m or 300m? Or both? Would that not categorically put him in contention to run as fast as 44,58, or the time Hernandez, who was both slower at half the distance and at 300m, achieved?

If I read you right, you have overlooked the see-saw of ability:

X was 0.33 ahead of H in the 200.
X was 0.14 ahead of H in the 300.

Effectively, he lost 0.19 going from 200 to 300, which implies that he will
likely lose _at least_ another 0.19 (possibly noticeably more) going from 300
to 400. In other words, he should be _at least_ 0.05 behind H at 400, which
puts him at 44.63+.

(Note that 44.63+ does not necessarily reflect my opinion of X's ability, just
what comes out from this particular line of reasoning. Further note that I may
well have misunderstood your intentions.)

[imaginative]

On an unrelated topic: Every b****y time I click on ``preview'' nowadays, my
browser hangs. Anyone else with this problem?

[EPelle]

Effectively, he lost 0.19 going from 200 to 300, which implies that he will likely lose _at least_ another 0.19 (possibly noticeably more) going from 300 to 400. In other words, he should be _at least_ 0.05 behind H at 400, which puts him at 44.63+.

Good call. I did think through that and hoped to have alluded to that when I stated that Carter would be "in contention to run as fast as 44,58" not that he would run as fast as Hernandez did. By using Hernandez as a yardstick, "2 cents" has actually confirmed what he was hoping to deny, namely that, "He has no chance of running a 44.53".

[knite]

Its gonna be interesting as the results start coming in as to how people perform.

[Jnathletics]

Re: 2009 USATF: m400

Merritt
Neville
Carter

Is there any doubt on the winner here?