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2009 USATF: m400 - LaShawn Merritt 44.50

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  • #61
    Originally posted by EPelle
    Originally posted by imaginative
    Effectively, he lost 0.19 going from 200 to 300, which implies that he will likely lose _at least_ another 0.19 (possibly noticeably more) going from 300 to 400. In other words, he should be _at least_ 0.05 behind H at 400, which puts him at 44.63+.
    Good call. I did think through that and hoped to have alluded to that when I stated that Carter would be "in contention to run as fast as 44,58" not that he would run as fast as Hernandez did. By using Hernandez as a yardstick, "2 cents" has actually confirmed what he was hoping to deny, namely that, "He has no chance of running a 44.53".

    Again, you aren't logical. The point imaginative made was one that anybody should be able to understand, and yet you still don't get it, and your last sentence reads as if I have confirmed that Carter has no chance of running 44.53, which is true, and yet the opposite of what you were trying to say. You really don't understand, so it is futile.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by 2 cents
      Again, you aren't logical. The point imaginative made was one that anybody should be able to understand, and yet you still don't get it, and your last sentence reads as if I have confirmed that Carter has no chance of running 44.53, which is true, and yet the opposite of what you were trying to say. You really don't understand, so it is futile.
      How can you possibly be surprised that someone doesn't understand when you write sentences like that?

      Comment


      • #63
        Listen, I can dumb this down if I have to. Epelle thinks that just because athlete A runs a certain time during his season, that you can take athlete B if he has run a similar time, and then match athlete B to athlete A's other performances that season, when the barometer performance of athlete A may have been a rather perfunctory effort, and not in any way a true reflection of his abilities at other distances. It would be like saying anybody who can run what Lagat ran in a given year for 800 would match him at 1500. It is silly. Do you now comprehend?

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by 2 cents
          Listen, I can dumb this down if I have to. Epelle thinks that just because athlete A runs a certain time during his season, that you can take athlete B if he has run a similar time, and then match athlete B to athlete A's other performances that season, when the barometer performance of athlete A may have been a rather perfunctory effort, and not in any way a true reflection of his abilities at other distances. It would be like saying anybody who can run what Lagat ran in a given year for 800 would match him at 1500. It is silly. Do you now comprehend?
          I did then and I do now, but that point I was trying to make is that presenting your argument like an arrogant, disrespectful ass isn't going to win you any fans. Maybe you should try tempering your apparently vast, inexhaustible knowledge of the inner workings of track and field with a little humility and grace; since, as I'm sure you know, not all of us are as intelligent as you.

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by 2 cents
            Again, you aren't logical. The point imaginative made was one that anybody should be able to understand, and yet you still don't get it, and your last sentence reads as if I have confirmed that Carter has no chance of running 44.53, which is true, and yet the opposite of what you were trying to say. You really don't understand, so it is futile.
            Do you have money on Carter not running under a certain time?

            Epelle thinks that just because athlete A runs a certain time during his season, that you can take athlete B if he has run a similar time, and then match athlete B to athlete A's other performances that season, when the barometer performance of athlete A may have been a rather perfunctory effort, and not in any way a true reflection of his abilities at other distances.
            Really, is that what you've concluded? That's a shame. I've had the following drawn up for the final, but I'll have to state it now...

            I fully understood and appreciated Imaginative's point and had taken it into consideration during my own review of the Hernandez comparison to the 1989 season.

            Comparatively, with Hernandez over two distances, Carter is 0,33 ahead at 200m and 0,14 at 300m. Hernandez's gain between 200m and 300m (0,19) is significant in that over 400m, if Carter continued to lose time to Hernandez based on what his 200m and 300m SB's were and their spatial relation to one another, he finishes behind Hernandez, who would likely make up at least another 0,19s had en eye beam been in place in a race where Carter was expected to run at the same predictive time as Hernandez.

            You don't believe Carter will run under 44,53. That is completely your own prerogative. I confirmed that you don't believe he will run that time or faster. Using your example of Hernandez, but taking it a year earlier than the 41,97 pace you mentioned he was able to carry, I demonstrated that Carter would at least be within the range of 44,5. As I stated much earlier, and still maintain, without 200m at USATF - coupled with a bit of luck and relaxation, he will run under 44,50 by having to only subtract 0,03s from his PB if he runs competitively and within himself. I firmly believe he can run much faster than 44,5, the reason I stated he should be able to hit 44,50 with relative ease.

            That I mentioned Johnson's three season bests is significant to me. That Johnson won his 300m by a significant margin has no relevance to me. His finishing time was 31,95 seconds. His best 400m that season was 44,17, or 1,57s differential between what his 400m pace was at 300m. It was a starting point.

            Jeremy Wariner ran 31,72/43,82, yielding 1,52.
            Steve Lewis ran 31,82/44,08, yielding 1,65.
            Mark Richardson ran 31,87/44,37, yielding 1,87.
            Gabriel Tiacoh ran 31,74/44,30, yielding 1,98.
            Anthuan Maybank ran 31,61/44,15 - a differential of 2,00.
            Danny Everett ran 31,48/44,06 - a differential of 2,08.
            Hernandez's 31,48/44,14 in 1990 yielded 2,17.
            Darren Clark ran 31,88/44,72, yielding 2,27
            LaShawn Merritt ran 31,31/44,14 the same season - a differential of 2,39.
            Tyler Christopher ran 31,77/45,25), yielding 2,89.

            Let's take out the high (2,89) and the low (1,52), and then let's look at those men who ran 300m ahead of Carter and let's find their average differential.

            The nine men in this category yield 2,00 seconds on average between their 300m and their best 400m that season. Let's remove Johnson for the sake of argument. Those eight men average 2,05s differential between their 300m/400m bests those seasons.

            Now, since Carter is right up on the all-time list, and has a 200m season's best better than the SB's of Maybank, Hernand├ęz, Wariner, Tiacoh (NM), Christopher, Lewis, Richardson and Clark (NM, lifetime best 20,49) - that is to say everone but Johnson, Everett and Merritt, would it be incorrect to assume that Carter could average nearly the same differential between 300m/400m as his predecessors have been able to achieve between the same distances?

            Maybank had a 45,75 the year before he ran his 300m PB.
            Hernand├ęz had a 44,58 the year before he ran his 300m PB.
            Clark missed the season prior to his 300m PB, but had run 44,72.
            Richardson ran 44,47 the year before his 300m PB.
            Christopher ran 45,61 the year prior to his 300m PB.
            Tiacoh missed the season prior to his 300m PB, but had run 44,54.
            Wariner ran 43,45 the year before he ran his 300m PB.
            Everett ran 44,36 the year before his 300m.
            Merritt ran 44,66 the year before his first 300m la-wr
            Merritt ran 43,75 the year before his current 300m.

            Carter ran 44,70 last year, AND has something no other sprinter in this group has: a 10,00 that same season. That he has now run in the crowd of folks who have averaged 2,05s differential between their 300m and 400m times recorded the same season, and it can be demonstrated that he had the tools last year to make the relevant comparison to what others ahead of him did in the season prior to their 300m bests, I believe it to be completely reasonable and of interest to see what a 2,05s differential looks like to Carter if he runs 400m all-out at some point this season (whether or not it reflects on his PB).

            That is 44,62, or within the range of 44,50-44,59 that 44,5 is. Obviously, these forumulas have room for improvement and completely other ways of being worked out to demonstrate a consistency between the subjects listed. Nevertheless, Carter has something to work off of if he'd like to make a very general comparison to himself and others. However, with 10,00 under his belt, no other sprinter in the history of this sport who is ahead of him at 300m or 400m has ever been into that stratosphere, making some of this point irrelevant in comparison, because Carter's leg speed at both 100m and 200m are far superior than every athlete save one, Johnson.

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by 2 cents
              Listen, I can dumb this down if I have to. Epelle thinks that just because athlete A runs a certain time during his season, that you can take athlete B if he has run a similar time, and then match athlete B to athlete A's other performances that season, when the barometer performance of athlete A may have been a rather perfunctory effort, and not in any way a true reflection of his abilities at other distances. It would be like saying anybody who can run what Lagat ran in a given year for 800 would match him at 1500. It is silly. Do you now comprehend?
              Clarifying poorly structured prose is not 'dumbing it down'. As for your characterization of EPelle, what you have is a strawman, not the his real position, although a strawman it does clarify here.

              Comment


              • #67
                Where's eldrick when you need him? :wink:

                Comment


                • #68
                  Heat 1: Merritt going away. Very easy 45.23. Larry in second comfortably. Unimpressive by everyone other than those two.

                  Heat 2: Spoon is cooking up the back. Calvin Smith comes on at the end. Smith, Bailey, Spoon. 46.17. Again, wind must be messing their times up.

                  Heat 3: Scratch in 6. Williamson very comfortably. Feed messed up, couldn't get the time.

                  Heat 4: Go Andrew! He's in lane 2, which has been a bad lane through the first few heats. Smith and Neville. Rock's fitness isn't there. 46.23 for Smith.

                  Heat 5: Loaded heat here with Carter, Clement, Nixon (DIII product), X, Q (Scrabble paradise in this heat!), and Betters. Comparing that to the weak Heat 3, seems very odd. X is rolling and out well. Betters on the outside strong the last 100m for 3rd, but Clement and Carter are the class of the heat. 46.17 for Clement.

                  All in all, very slow times but I guess it's trials + wind. Merritt looks like a man amongst boys comparably speaking.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    1 LaShawn Merritt Nike 45.23Q 1
                    2 Calvin Smith Florida 46.17Q 2 [46.167]
                    3 Kerron Clement Nike 46.17Q 5 [46.168]
                    4 Miles Smith unattached 46.23Q 4
                    5 Darold Williamson Nike 46.61Q 3
                    6 Lionel Larry adidas 45.82Q 1
                    7 Xavier Carter Nike 46.43Q 5 [46.422]
                    8 John Bailey unattached 46.43Q 2 [46.426]
                    9 David Neville Nike 46.48Q 4
                    10 Gil Roberts Texas Tech 47.09Q 3
                    11 Jamaal Torrence Nike 45.94q 1
                    12 Jeremy Davis unattached 46.32q 1
                    13 Reggie Witherspoon unattached 46.50q 2
                    14 Darius Law Charlotte 46.59q 1
                    15 Bobby McCoy Tucson Elite A C 46.60q 4
                    16 Antione Drakeford Cincinnati 46.63q 4
                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
                    17 LeJerald Betters unattached 46.67 5
                    18 Levi Brooks Charleston Southern 46.83 1
                    19 Darryl Hayes Sam Houston State 46.95 2
                    20 Bryan Miller Texas A&M 46.96 2 [46.953]
                    21 Terrance Reid Northern Iowa 46.96 5 [46.954]
                    22 Justin Oliver Texas A&M 47.03 4
                    23 Craig Everhart HSInternational 47.04 2
                    24 Michael Courtney Sam Houston State 47.06 2
                    25 Quentin Iglehart-Summers Baylor 47.10 5 [47.096]
                    26 Andrew Rock adidas 47.10 4 [47.098]
                    27 Josh Scott Saint Augustine's 47.24 4
                    28 Joel Stallworth unattached 47.33 1
                    29 Greg Nixon Asics 47.64 5
                    30 Ahmad Hubbard unattached 47.74 3
                    31 Kelsey Caesar Cerritos College 47.75 5
                    32 Marcus Boyd Baylor 48.10 3
                    33 Jordan Boase unattached 48.28 3
                    34 Brandon O'Connor unattached 48.74 3

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Was Boarse not 100%, I'm looking at the 48.28 and 33rd :shock:
                      on the road

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Speedfirst
                        Was Boarse not 100%, I'm looking at the 48.28 and 33rd :shock:
                        Didn't even notice him during the heats, so I couldn't tell you.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Carter out, 45.55, 5th in semi I.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by dj
                            Carter out, 45.55, 5th in semi I.
                            A big surprise for Carter's fans. Not so big a surprise for the reality based community.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              LM is toying with everyone in the field. the other top spots are up for grabs.
                              maybe kerron klement and darold williamson

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by EZSum
                                Originally posted by dj
                                Carter out, 45.55, 5th in semi I.
                                A big surprise for Carter's fans. Not so big a surprise for the reality based community.
                                Zing!

                                Comment

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