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>I think five meters will come in 2005 for the women.
I agree. I can definitely see the 16ft (4.88m) barrier being broken this year, but there's a significantly bigger leap from 4.85m to 5.00m. It should happen before the next Olympics.
The WR has been upped about 25cm since '00. At the rate of about 6cm per year, that would put it at 5m in about '06. But, of course, some idiot will go out and blow that progression away. The current indoor mark has added 3cm and it's Feb. My guess is next year for 5m. Probably 4.90s this year. Oh, Garry, God's measurement is the light year. And he/she does play dice with the universe.
>The WR has been upped about 25cm since '00. At the rate of about 6cm per year,
>that would put it at 5m in about '06. But, of course, some idiot will go out
>and blow that progression away. The current indoor mark has added 3cm and it's
>Feb. My guess is next year for 5m. Probably 4.90s this year. Oh, Garry,
>God's measurement is the light year. And he/she does play dice with the
>universe.
If the female PV'ing world was full of Feofanovas, then I'd agree, as she tends to progress quite steadily year by year. However, with Isinbayeva around, then the whole "steady progression" thing is replaced with a more rapid one. Just look at this girl's last few years:
Her indoor progression follows a similar pattern (big leaps each year, with just a little leap in 2001).
With rumours that Isinbayeva has her training bar set at 4.90-5.00m, then something tells me that she's not yet finished with her WR-breaking and would like to push it somewhere where it will remain untouched for a couple years.
I wonder who'll be the first to attempt a 4.90m (and then a 5.00m..)...??
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