Wariner vs. Merritt in Athens Monday?

[glimp5k]

I just noticed on the provisional start lists for the Athens GP meet on Monday that both Wariner and Merritt are listed in the 400! I know things change but could this be Showdown #1?

[502CD]

Re: Wariner vs. Merritt in Athens Monday?

It'd be interesting to know if JW pulled out of Tangiers to run Athens to purposely get a race with LM or if it was just a money thing. Regardless it's great news if it does happen.

[Mikewats]

If Wariner is close to Merritt or even wins I can see Wariner winning the worlds and probably a PB.

Glad Wariner is back with Hart, still got another 3 years or so to get that WR.

[nbonaddio]

If Wariner is close to Merritt or even wins I can see Wariner winning the worlds and probably a PB.

Glad Wariner is back with Hart, still got another 3 years or so to get that WR.

Not me. I don't see anything in their current form to make me believe JW has more than a lucky shot to beat Merritt. However, in his defense, that goes for everyone else in the 400m as well.

[Mikewats]

he's got a better PB, he still ran 43.8 last year and i think he just choked in the final because he ran 44.1 cruising in the semi. He hasn't been injured this winter i don't think and Hart will get about 4 months solid training to prepare him and he will already be in good condition. The only problem i have is his 200 at US trials which were awful, but Hart said in an interview it was down to gamesmanship, maybe he meant doing 200 or just not showing any cards at all and not going all out in the 200. Either way Wariner got 1 peak this year and thats world champs. He normally has to peak for trial's on top of the global event.

He's always PB'd in major finals under Hart.

[rainy.here]

But leaving Hart for 2008 and getting worse that year is a setback that might not be correctable in one year.

[jamaicantrackfan]

Veronica should be running as well.

[Speedfirst]

But leaving Hart for 2008 and getting worse that year is a setback that might not be correctable in one year.

Well it either will or won't, and how things have looked form wise, it appears it has already started to be corrected. Of course Jeremy standards are higher than just about every other 400m, with maybe the exception of LaShawn.

[justblaze1011]

Veronica should be running as well.

Aww, thats so sweet!!! But this is a thread about Wariner and Merritt, so can we not get derailed please???

If these two run against each other, it will be a good race. I pick Merritt to win this one seeing that he's ran more 400's this season so far.

[nbonaddio]

he's got a better PB, he still ran 43.8 last year and i think he just choked in the final because he ran 44.1 cruising in the semi. He hasn't been injured this winter i don't think and Hart will get about 4 months solid training to prepare him and he will already be in good condition. The only problem i have is his 200 at US trials which were awful, but Hart said in an interview it was down to gamesmanship, maybe he meant doing 200 or just not showing any cards at all and not going all out in the 200. Either way Wariner got 1 peak this year and thats world champs. He normally has to peak for trial's on top of the global event.

He's always PB'd in major finals under Hart.

Don't get it twisted, JW is still an all-time performer in the event and is certainly still capable of amazing performances. HOWEVA, just because is capable of a performance doesn't mean that it's predictable, especially given the form LM has had as of late. He simply hasn't shown me anything that leads me to believe that what he is in theory capable of will happen while LM simultaneously has an off-form race. This isn't 2005. Merritt has run more and has looked better doing it - seems like a solid recipe to me.

[502CD]

It's a nice test for the both of them to see where they are with a month to go. And with both in it its an actual race and not a time trial. I don't believe for a second though that the winner of this will definately be the winner in Berlin.

[EPelle]

he's got a better PB, he still ran 43.8 last year and i think he just choked in the final because he ran 44.1 cruising in the semi.

I actually believe this is what caused his failure in the final. At no other time in his championship history has he had to run 44,15 or faster in a semifinal and return two days later to attempt to run even faster; he's been able to run 44,02-43,99 with two off days as rest. His 43,45 PB was followed by a one-day rest period - in a championship, but his semi was 44,34 against a 43,50 SB ahead of that.

Finally, Wariner has never even broken 44,00 in a championship (or ej) when he's had to run this fast (44,15) two days before.

[nbonaddio]

he's got a better PB, he still ran 43.8 last year and i think he just choked in the final because he ran 44.1 cruising in the semi.

I actually believe this is what caused his failure in the final. At no other time in his championship history has he had to run 44,15 or faster in a semifinal and return two days later to attempt to run even faster; he's been able to run 44,02-43,99 with two off days as rest. His 43,45 PB was followed by a one-day rest period - in a championship, but his semi was 44,34 against a 43,50 SB ahead of that.

Finally, Wariner has never even broken 44,00 in a championship (or ej) when he's had to run this fast (44,15) two days before.

I think you're personally reading too much into it. The numbers are of course irrefutable in a lot of ways, but I think it's just as plausible that he simply had a best race, wasn't mentally focused, or any number of intangible things like that. Numbers may explain the effect, but they don't always explain the cause.

[EPelle]

Again, one of the causes was that he, in a semi, ran too close to his SB with another race to go; he ran his fourth-fastest time of the season (to-date) two days before he was supposed to line up and give even more. No amount of slicing and dicing takes away from how quick a 44,15 is over one lap.

[trackhead]

Again, one of the causes was that he, in a semi, ran too close to his SB with another race to go; he ran his fourth-fastest time of the season (to-date) two days before he was supposed to line up and give even more. No amount of slicing and dicing takes away from how quick a 44,15 is over one lap.

Merritt went to Beijing with a SB of 44.00 and ran 44.12 in his semi-final.