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What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

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  • #16
    Re: What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

    Originally posted by imaginative
    Originally posted by The Atheist

    I think he will run a 9.70-basic because I think he'll have a slow reaction time [...]

    If he snaps off a 0.15 reaction time I think he will run a 9.65-basic time for this race. [...]
    Do I even need to write a comment to these quotes?

    (Yes, it could theoretically happen; however, it would be proof
    of greater ability than even he has yet demonstrated. Considering
    that he has yet to run a serious 100m this year, being that fast
    now would imply a Berlin time that is otherworldly---even when
    compared to Beijing.)
    well look at it this way,

    comparing to last year 200m he is ahead 19.59 to the 19.67 and his 19.59 was actually a few days earlier, and easier than his 19.67 so he's in very good form, and look at his last 100 at the trials, he was on cruise control, 9.70 is very possible for his next race, just depends how he runs

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    • #17
      Originally posted by The Atheist
      Wait a minute...

      I've fucked this up, haven't I...
      Not at all. Not everyone knows that Athens is now in France. :twisted:

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      • #18
        In Paris, Bolt will....

        Injury DNF.

        Like I said in that other thread about Gay's Rome 9.77, Bolt has never gone 2 full consecutive injury-free seasons since he was young teen. He's now at 1.5 years and counting so the odds and history are against him. It's only a matter of when; this week, this month...?? OR can he go into unprecedented territory for his own body??

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

          Originally posted by The Atheist
          What time do you think Usain will run in the 100 meters in his Athens race next week?

          For simplicity's sake, say what you think his basic time will be. Basic time refers to what the time would be in zero wind at zero elevation.

          I think he will run a 9.70-basic because I think he'll have a slow reaction time since he hasn't run many 100's yet this season. I think his reaction time will be about a 0.2 in this race.

          If he snaps off a 0.15 reaction time I think he will run a 9.65-basic time for this race. I do not think he will be in 100% perfect 100 meter shape yet in Athens, I think he'll still have a little 100m training left before Berlin, where he'll go even faster.

          What do you think he will run?
          While I do sort of tend to agree that his reaction time could be slower given the lack of recent racing, I am not totally certain that it will be as slow as 0.2 in this race, nor am I convinced he can drop down as low as 0.15, so I think I will predict right in the middle at 0.175.

          As for basic time, I sort of tend to agree a little bit that 9.70 is realistic, it is not set in stone, even given the lack of variables when computing basic time. I think it could be a smidge slower at 9.7124985, but of course, that is just a rough guess, so bear with me on that.
          "Who's Kidding Who?"

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          • #20
            Originally posted by The Atheist
            Wind is forecast as 20mph NNW.

            So if the track is facing NNW then that's an 8.9m/s headwind, or if the track is facing SSW then it's a 8.9m/s tailwind, and if it's not facing in either of those directions, then who knows.
            The wind speed in forecasts and in actual readings are taken at 10m above ground level (and unobstructed). Thus, the effect at ground level is about 2/3rds that value. It was this factor (and a couple of others) that led to the substantial reduction in the 'wind chill' adjustments (and so that NFL champ game in Green Bay was not so cold as is cited).

            Then, of course, there is the stadium effect that you mention.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by richxx87
              In Paris, Bolt will....

              Injury DNF.

              Like I said in that other thread about Gay's Rome 9.77, Bolt has never gone 2 full consecutive injury-free seasons since he was young teen. He's now at 1.5 years and counting so the odds and history are against him. It's only a matter of when; this week, this month...?? OR can he go into unprecedented territory for his own body??
              Do you know why Bolt was so injury prone?

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

                Originally posted by Gordon18
                well look at it this way,

                comparing to last year 200m he is ahead 19.59 to the 19.67 and his 19.59 was actually a few days earlier, and easier than his 19.67 so he's in very good form, and look at his last 100 at the trials, he was on cruise control, 9.70 is very possible for his next race, just depends how he runs
                9.70, no strings attached: Possibly. (I doubt it, but never say never.)
                9.70, basic, with a poor start: Very different matter.
                9.65, basic: The chances of a long jump WR this season is better.

                (Come Berlin, all bets are off.)

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                • #23
                  Re: What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

                  Originally posted by Gordon18
                  well look at it this way,

                  comparing to last year 200m he is ahead 19.59 to the 19.67 and his 19.59 was actually a few days earlier, and easier than his 19.67 so he's in very good form, and look at his last 100 at the trials, he was on cruise control, 9.70 is very possible for his next race, just depends how he runs
                  What basis do you have for saying the 19.59 was "easier" than the 19.67? He ran the former pretty hard, from what was shown on TV.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by richxx87
                    In Paris, Bolt will....

                    Injury DNF.

                    Like I said in that other thread about Gay's Rome 9.77, Bolt has never gone 2 full consecutive injury-free seasons since he was young teen. He's now at 1.5 years and counting so the odds and history are against him. It's only a matter of when; this week, this month...?? OR can he go into unprecedented territory for his own body??
                    Bossman, You keep talking about he hasn't run 2 consecutive injury free seasons. Has it ever occurred to you that maybe those days he was not the athlete he is today i.e. he actually trains hard now and take better care of his body.

                    Not to say he won't get injured, just saying stop harping on it, it almost seems that you want that to happen. We all want to see sometime special in Berlin from all the top athletes so stop talking bout di man likely to get injured.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

                      Originally posted by JRM
                      Originally posted by Gordon18
                      well look at it this way,

                      comparing to last year 200m he is ahead 19.59 to the 19.67 and his 19.59 was actually a few days earlier, and easier than his 19.67 so he's in very good form, and look at his last 100 at the trials, he was on cruise control, 9.70 is very possible for his next race, just depends how he runs
                      What basis do you have for saying the 19.59 was "easier" than the 19.67? He ran the former pretty hard, from what was shown on TV.
                      he ran the 19.59 very hard, no doubt, but in the 19.67 he kinda lost form near the end and dipped, whereas he just ran through, also considering the conditions. i probably should have said it was a better race, but you get what im trying to say

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                      • #26
                        Re: What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

                        Originally posted by Gordon18
                        he ran the 19.59 very hard, no doubt, but in the 19.67 he kinda lost form near the end and dipped, whereas he just ran through, also considering the conditions. i probably should have said it was a better race, but you get what im trying to say
                        No, I actually didn't get that impression from your post. There's a difference between an "easy" race and a "hard" one. There seems to be a growing attitude on these boards that every one of Bolt's races is "easy", or a "jog", etc... The faster he goes, the less effort he puts out. That's rather disingenuous.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: What will Usain Bolt's 100m time be in France next week?

                          Originally posted by JRM
                          Originally posted by Gordon18
                          he ran the 19.59 very hard, no doubt, but in the 19.67 he kinda lost form near the end and dipped, whereas he just ran through, also considering the conditions. i probably should have said it was a better race, but you get what im trying to say
                          No, I actually didn't get that impression from your post. There's a difference between an "easy" race and a "hard" one. There seems to be a growing attitude on these boards that every one of Bolt's races is "easy", or a "jog", etc... The faster he goes, the less effort he puts out. That's rather disingenuous.
                          nope sorry i said EASIER so that doesn't mean easy, just man not as hard as something else

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                          • #28
                            As y'all know, I picked his Lausanne time EXACTLY, a day in advance. When the muses strike again, I'll give you the word...

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                            • #29
                              Where ever it is he'll run a 9.74

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by richxx87
                                In Paris, Bolt will....

                                Injury DNF.

                                Like I said in that other thread about Gay's Rome 9.77, Bolt has never gone 2 full consecutive injury-free seasons since he was young teen. He's now at 1.5 years and counting so the odds and history are against him. It's only a matter of when; this week, this month...?? OR can he go into unprecedented territory for his own body??
                                Whatever you do, stay far away from kids with cancer in remission.

                                Comment

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