'09 Paris GL M 100

[Mikewats]

I think Bolt can break the WR on the track. If it's still conditions like Beijing i think he will be about 9.65.

A lot of people forget in Beijing Bolt had one of his best starts probably about equal with new york and then ran 9.69 on probably the fastest track in the world at the time. But then again he also celebrated a lot before the line and didnt have a taliwind.

Personally i think in Berlin he will have a not so good start, sprint through and run about 9.65 in still conditions, if taliwind or headwind adjust accordingly.

[steve]

Personally i think in Berlin he will have a not so good start, sprint through and run about 9.65 in still conditions, if taliwind or headwind adjust accordingly.

I agree mostly. I think he will accidently set up his blocks with the wrong foot forward, have a 0.5s reaction time and that combined with a 1.4 m/s headwind will give him a 9.66 basic (adjusted accordingly).

[rudeboy]

No one here seems to take into account how fast that track in Beijing was. Virtually everyone said that it was the fastest track they had ever run on. There were an unusual number fouls in the rounds of the jumps because the surface was so quick. Just keep that in mind when prognosticating.

If the track was faster than other tracks, why only a few people PRed on the track. It seemed the track is only fast for Usain Bolt. Walter only ran .02 faster. I don't think the track was any faster than any other track. Same thing in Atlanta. Track was supposed to be very fast, yet the women only ran 10.94. If these tracks are super fast, then more people should be running personal best times.

[track_expert]

Just for a point of reference, it was pointed out on another site that race 18 over the past few seasons (possibly as many as the last 3-4?) is where AP has traditionally run either right at or very near his peak. So based upon Stephen Francis' training plans for AP and assuming he has made no major changes, this is approximately where we are likely to see him peak again. Last year I believe his 18th race would have been at Beijing but his injury issues had him behind schedule as far as racing when he arrived in China. Therefore, he did not hit number 18 until some time after the games in Europe. Perhaps it was in Italy or Belgium-I don't recall exactly.

Again, this was a theory floated on another site (Charlie Francis himself, actually, at his site) and seems to be a very valid one with respect to Powell.

By the way, I do agree that Bolt was running slightly submaximally even at his top speed in the Beijing 100 or otherwise he was highly unlikely to have been able to repeat 2-3(?) consecutive .82 splits. If one was to execute a completely maximal effort, their would likely be a blow-up or refractory response/effect to ensuing splits. Again, just a theory, I'm not putting it up as fact but I do believe it to be so.

It is a good theory and all, but it is tough to prove and unless Powell shows up in PB form in race 18, the theory is mostly bunk.

I say it is mostly bunk for this reason: the only thing consistent about any of his races (other than this magical race 18, which may very well be a coincidence), is that if it is in a final, it isn't good. '04, '07, and '08, his finals weren't good. And trust me, I didn't want to call the guy a choke artist until after this past Olympics, but he doesn't handle the pressure well. Look at the guy's face from '07 and '08--he looks visibly exhausted and fatigued. It looks as-if he could barely sleep the night before and is just not ready to go. Do you think doing another race before the Olympics would change that? Also, why does he perform so incredibly below his abilities in these finals compared to any other race or heat? How can a man sprint 100% and run slower than what he would jog at any other point?

Funny too for the 18 race propagators, why was his best run in 2006 not in race number 18? It was close to his best in race 18, but it wasn't his best if you want to factor in conditions (which is what these propagators also like to do, so it should be suitable for them).

He wouldn't have won in 2004 but you dont agree running the rounds the way he did had an impact?

[track_expert]

No one here seems to take into account how fast that track in Beijing was. Virtually everyone said that it was the fastest track they had ever run on. There were an unusual number fouls in the rounds of the jumps because the surface was so quick. Just keep that in mind when prognosticating.

If the track was faster than other tracks, why only a few people PRed on the track. It seemed the track is only fast for Usain Bolt. Walter only ran .02 faster. I don't think the track was any faster than any other track. Same thing in Atlanta. Track was supposed to be very fast, yet the women only ran 10.94. If these tracks are super fast, then more people should be running personal best times.

In Beijing the wind was also practically 0 vs. some tailwind in other cases where they ran their PBs.

[J2thaD]

anyone who says that gay wont be a match for bolt is silly.. its not gonna be like olympics, when bolt blew away the field.

Quite frankly, he isn't a match for a top condition Bolt. And barring injury or some other mishap like Powell actually putting together a world class race in a final, the 100 will be a blow out just like last time. Don't forget that if Bolt had of ran all the way through the tape instead of celebrating that the record would be much lower than 9.69. Unless Tyson shows me something in his next couple races before the Championships, I don't think he can go sub 9.7 without the wind at his back.

[track_expert]

anyone who says that gay wont be a match for bolt is silly.. its not gonna be like olympics, when bolt blew away the field.

Quite frankly, he isn't a match for a top condition Bolt. And barring injury or some other mishap like Powell actually putting together a world class race in a final, the 100 will be a blow out just like last time. Don't forget that if Bolt had of ran all the way through the tape instead of celebrating that the record would be much lower than 9.69. Unless Tyson shows me something in his next couple races before the Championships, I don't think he can go sub 9.7 without the wind at his back.

I dont see the big hype about Tyson at this moment, he's ran a couple wind aided 9.7s BEFORE trials in 07, ran a 19.6 in bad conditions in 07, ran a 9.77 while easing up in the quarter finals last year, he hasnt shown anything new at all to this POINT. Whether or not my opinions will change after London/Stockholm all depends.

I will guarantee who the winner will be after the semi finals, 100% guarantee. And silver/bronze medallist.

[TrainerPhil]

Does this look like a man that wasn't running 100%?

Which man in that picture is the defending champ, has individual major gold, can handle round?

This is probably THE sport where being the defending champion is meaningless. What Tyson Gay did 2 years ago, especially with the emergence of Bolt, has absolutely nothing to do with right now. The only advantage a defending champion has in regards to the two championship meets is that they can skip the national trials as they have automatic bids to the event the next time it is contested.

[track_expert]

Does this look like a man that wasn't running 100%?

Which man in that picture is the defending champ, has individual major gold, can handle round?

This is probably THE sport where being the defending champion is meaningless. What Tyson Gay did 2 years ago, especially with the emergence of Bolt, has absolutely nothing to do with right now. The only advantage a defending champion has in regards to the two championship meets is that they can skip the national trials as they have automatic bids to the event the next time it is contested.

That benefit is also mainly to Gay considering level of comp. at trials, running the trials for Bolt wasnt bad at all in fact good for him considering he ran purely sub max. and good way to prepare himself for the rounds of world champs.

[Speedfirst]

Does this look like a man that wasn't running 100%?

Which man in that picture is the defending champ, has individual major gold, can handle round?

This is probably THE sport where being the defending champion is meaningless. What Tyson Gay did 2 years ago, especially with the emergence of Bolt, has absolutely nothing to do with right now. The only advantage a defending champion has in regards to the two championship meets is that they can skip the national trials as they have automatic bids to the event the next time it is contested.

You're missing my point with reference to my reply to Ramgoat, constant cry about what Asafa is gonna do to Tyson. Point being he is the defending champion, has individual major, not Asafa. Again this was in reply to his belly aching.

I am fully aware of the defending champion is meaningless, the times you ran in the semi's for a current, doesn't guarantee victory and in some meets that's the same day. So again in keeping things in perspective, that was for Ramgoat, in addition this has nothing to do with Bolt.

P.S. track expert this post is for your eyes also, since you chimed in :wink:

[cladthin]

Just for a point of reference, it was pointed out on another site that race 18 over the past few seasons (possibly as many as the last 3-4?) is where AP has traditionally run either right at or very near his peak. So based upon Stephen Francis' training plans for AP and assuming he has made no major changes, this is approximately where we are likely to see him peak again. Last year I believe his 18th race would have been at Beijing but his injury issues had him behind schedule as far as racing when he arrived in China. Therefore, he did not hit number 18 until some time after the games in Europe. Perhaps it was in Italy or Belgium-I don't recall exactly.

Again, this was a theory floated on another site (Charlie Francis himself, actually, at his site) and seems to be a very valid one with respect to Powell.

By the way, I do agree that Bolt was running slightly submaximally even at his top speed in the Beijing 100 or otherwise he was highly unlikely to have been able to repeat 2-3(?) consecutive .82 splits. If one was to execute a completely maximal effort, their would likely be a blow-up or refractory response/effect to ensuing splits. Again, just a theory, I'm not putting it up as fact but I do believe it to be so.

It is a good theory and all, but it is tough to prove and unless Powell shows up in PB form in race 18, the theory is mostly bunk.

I say it is mostly bunk for this reason: the only thing consistent about any of his races (other than this magical race 18, which may very well be a coincidence), is that if it is in a final, it isn't good. '04, '07, and '08, his finals weren't good. And trust me, I didn't want to call the guy a choke artist until after this past Olympics, but he doesn't handle the pressure well. Look at the guy's face from '07 and '08--he looks visibly exhausted and fatigued. It looks as-if he could barely sleep the night before and is just not ready to go. Do you think doing another race before the Olympics would change that? Also, why does he perform so incredibly below his abilities in these finals compared to any other race or heat? How can a man sprint 100% and run slower than what he would jog at any other point?

Funny too for the 18 race propagators, why was his best run in 2006 not in race number 18? It was close to his best in race 18, but it wasn't his best if you want to factor in conditions (which is what these propagators also like to do, so it should be suitable for them).

I think the likelihood of coincidence starts to fade away when we are talking about 3-4 of the last seasons, consecutively. I would propose that their training plans lead him to 18 even if unintentionally so. I am aware that S. Francis was provided this information-he was sent the graphs that illustrated this peak at 18 history in the event he did not already know this was the case.

I do know for a fact that some sprint groups use staying a bit under their top end to make more repeatable splits and reducing the rate of deceleration has been taught/coached. I know HSI did this and I've heard that S. Francis has as well. I've not heard that, specifically about Mills but would not be at all surprised if he employed such a method as it seems to be fairly common now. This was also taught at the USATF jr. elite camps for women-at least in the late 90's by Tony Wells and Tony Veney.

Again, with regards to the 18 races I did say at or very near his peak. I think with Powell and I don't know how many could argue against this, there are very likely psychological/confidence issues at play which almost assuredly had a part in his less than stellar big meet performances. I think it's pretty tough to dispute the fact that his peaks have all come right around number 18. I'm talking top times and not merely performances with adjustments for wind and conditions which will not show up in record books. His best times have come at or right around race 18. You can visit CF's site if you wish to look at the graphs yourself-I assume they are still available.

[Jerome Marrow]

I think the likelihood of coincidence starts to fade away when we are talking about 3-4 of the last seasons, consecutively. I would propose that their training plans lead him to 18 even if unintentionally so. I am aware that S. Francis was provided this information-he was sent the graphs that illustrated this peak at 18 history in the event he did not already know this was the case.

As I pointed out, the 18 races HASN'T held true. In his only injury free season to speak of (or least injury riddled) and arguably his best, his best race was well before race number 18 (in 2006). 2007 and 2008 are both ambiguous because the WR didn't come in race 18 unless you discount 1 or 2 relay legs that he ran. I don't think the 18 race thing is as solid as people are making it out to be. Just arbitrarily deciding which races to count isn't exactly objective and the only season where everything is pretty clear shows that his best race was NOT in race number 18!

I do know for a fact that some sprint groups use staying a bit under their top end to make more repeatable splits and reducing the rate of deceleration has been taught/coached. I know HSI did this and I've heard that S. Francis has as well. I've not heard that, specifically about Mills but would not be at all surprised if he employed such a method as it seems to be fairly common now. This was also taught at the USATF jr. elite camps for women-at least in the late 90's by Tony Wells and Tony Veney.

Whether or not this is actually happening or, much more likely, it is simply a way to promote relaxation to the finish is not clear. People try to use some splits at arbitrary distances to prove their point when many of these splits have been proven bunk. Example, everyone knows that speed is not constant step to step let alone through a period of 30m or so and even if a split is the same for 60-70 and 70-80 does not mean the speed was constant throughout. One could have a split up .83 for 60-70 and 70-80, but a .82 split for 65-75 if there were cameras set-up there.

Again, with regards to the 18 races I did say at or very near his peak. I think with Powell and I don't know how many could argue against this, there are very likely psychological/confidence issues at play which almost assuredly had a part in his less than stellar big meet performances. I think it's pretty tough to dispute the fact that his peaks have all come right around number 18. I'm talking top times and not merely performances with adjustments for wind and conditions which will not show up in record books. His best times have come at or right around race 18. You can visit CF's site if you wish to look at the graphs yourself-I assume they are still available.

The thing is that he has been around his peak from races 8-22 depending on his health. When he's been healthy, he has ran extremely fast well before--and well after--race 18. Like I said, the whole race 18 thing hasn't even held 100% true in his best years and healthiest years, so it really is nonsense. When you manipulate stats to prove your point (ie arbitrarily counting some relay legs and not others), then it takes away from the argument. Plus, if it is just "around" race 18, why would he run like shit in race 16?

[justblaze1011]

So what was this topic about again?? :?