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  • Bolt is capable of a 9.4

    The right tailwind and Gay pushing him, I dont see why not.It might not be in the worlds however,but I dont think it is far fetched.

  • #2
    Re: Bolt is capable of a 9.4

    Originally posted by williamwindhamjr
    The right tailwind and Gay pushing him, I dont see why not.It might not be in the worlds however,but I dont think it is far fetched.
    I am a Bolt fan but you crazy

    Comment


    • #3
      Last season, Bolt ran a race in Brussels that revealed a lot of what he is capable of:

      He ran a 9.77 into a 1.3m/s headwind. His reaction time in that race was 0.22 seconds.

      Here is what this means:

      1. If his reaction time had been 0.16 (the reaction time he had in Beijing) his race time would have been 9.71 instead of 9.77

      2. If he had a 0.16 reaction time AND 0 wind, his time drops all the way down to 9.63.

      3. If he had a 0.16 reaction time, and a 1.5m/s tailwind, his time drops all the way down to 9.56

      4. If he had a 0.10 reaction time and a 2.0m/s tailwind his time drops all the way down to 9.48


      So, in perfect conditions with a perfect reaction time he is capable of 9.48.

      In good, but not perfect conditions with a decent (for him) 0.16 reaction time he is capable of 9.56.

      Well, last season at least. Who knows what he will do this season or next season. We'll just have to see for ourselves.

      Comment


      • #4
        Note for The Atheist... by your figuring, Bolt could not run a legal 9.48 because:

        A start is regarded as false if the reaction time is less than 0.12 s with an appropriate pressure upon the starting block because it is assumed that this represents the natural time limit for information processing from the ears to the muscles.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by jhc68
          Note for The Atheist... by your figuring, Bolt could not run a legal 9.48 because:

          A start is regarded as false if the reaction time is less than 0.12 s with an appropriate pressure upon the starting block because it is assumed that this represents the natural time limit for information processing from the ears to the muscles.
          I thought 0.10 was the lowest allowed, not 0.12

          Comment


          • #6
            Atheist... actually, so did I until I just looked it up!
            One of the silliest rules in T&F, in my view. But then we've had endless threads on the matter back in the archives.

            Comment


            • #7
              But I've seen lots of people run 0.10 or 0.11 reaction times in major competitions and not get disqualified for it. Hell, the Tim Montgomery world record that Jerome and track_expert have been yelling at each other about had a reaction time of .104 and he didn't get dq'd on that run. What's the deal here? I'm pretty sure 0.100 is the minimum allowable.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Jerome Marrow
                The Atheist should change his name to The Idiot since he appears to have no involvement at any level beyond the keyboard in track and field and confuses reaction times as some arbitrary numbers that are not affected by the actual running of the race (how do you think they get the reaction times anyway?) and that the wind readings are somehow perfect. SWEEEEET.
                The sooner you start moving the sooner you finish the race. By the way, you numbskull, your sentence above doesn't actually say what you think it says because you're illiterate. Take the time to learn something before you start proselytising you inbred muppet. And wash your filthy mouth out. You're spreading germs.

                Comment


                • #9
                  C'mon guys there's no need to call each other names and act mean just because we disagree with each other.

                  For what it's worth, it is true, Jerome, that there can be some error in the wind measurements, and also true that the conversion calculator estimates aren't always going to be perfectly accurate, but, those readings and estimations can be off in EITHER DIRECTION. Sure, it's true that in perfect conditions with perfect reaction time Bolt might not have been capable of any faster than 9.52 last season, but it's also possible that with perfect conditions he would have been capable of 9.44 last season. The error in the wind gauges and calculators can go either way. It can overestimate OR underestimate. So, the best I can do is just take the middle ground, which is the most likely to be what it truly was. There's probably a 35% chance that it's dead on, a 25% chance that it's off by .01 in either direction, a 15% chance that it's off by .02 in either direction, a 7% chance that it's off by .03 in either direction, a 5% chance that it's off by .04 in either direction, a 3% chance that it's off by .05 in either directionand on and on like that. So I just go with what's most likely to be correct, which is the initial estimate itself.

                  I'm not saying that he literally WOULD have run exactly 9.48 in perfect conditions last season with a perfect reaction time. Maybe it would've been 9.52 maybe 9.45 I dunno, I just saying the most likely guess would be 9.48, according to the wind gauges and the calculators, though it obviously runs some margin of error in both directions.

                  I mean, historically you can see that when athletes have truly horrible reaction times like 0.25-0.35 they generally run considerably slower race times than they were "expecting" to run in the race given where they were in the season and performing in races before/after, and that when people have really big headwinds or really big tailwinds the same type of things happen with them running wayyyyyyyy way way faster than normal any time they get a huge tailwind or wayyyyyyyyy way way slower than normal any time they get a huge headwind (by huge I mean like at least 4 m/s).

                  So is it that the wind and reaction times don't have ANY effect when the values are smaller? Does a 1m/s headwind or tailwind really have NO EFFECT and no difference from a 0 wind? No. Just because you can't really blatantly see/know the effect is happening the way you can with a giant 6m/s wind where you can see them go 0.2 seconds faster than tehir lifetime PR and never do that again till their next 6m/s tailwind, or the opposite when its a headwind, doesn't mean there is ZERO effect from a 1m/s headwind or tailwind. The effect is still there, even though it is considerably smaller, it's just harder to notice it cuz it's smaller. Same with reaction times.

                  I think it is safe to say Bolt could have gone DEEP beyond the 9.60 mark if he had had perfect conditions, but EXACTLY how much deeper, there is no way to know for sure. My guess is at least a 10th of a second deeper. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. So to me I don't consider it "totally ridiculous and impossible" for him to ever run 9.49. I think he will either need to get absolutely perfect conditions and reaction time or become a genuinely even FASTER sprinter than he already is in terms of pure actual acceleration and top speed, just like he became a faster sprinter than he was before, but either of those two things COULD happen and if they do I think he COULD run sub 9.50.

                  I don't know if he WILL but I think he possibly COULD if he trains well and has a little luck on his side both as far as injuries and as far as race conditions when he's peaking.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by The Atheist
                    1. If his reaction time had been 0.16 (the reaction time he had in Beijing) his race time would have been 9.71 instead of 9.77

                    2. If he had a 0.16 reaction time AND 0 wind, his time drops all the way down to 9.63.

                    3. If he had a 0.16 reaction time, and a 1.5m/s tailwind, his time drops all the way down to 9.56

                    In good, but not perfect conditions with a decent (for him) 0.16 reaction time he is capable of 9.56.
                    These are interesting times to contemplate. One minor correction must be made: Mr. Bolt's reaction time in Beijing was 0.165, not 0.16. This will change the hypothetical values slightly (9.72 9.64 9.57).
                    Fire Impossible.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Ha ha ha.

                      I expect big things from Bolt, but he is going to need a 4+ tailwind to break 9.5. That's just waaaaaaay too much to ask for/ expect.

                      But if it happened.............................

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Wow...another Bolt thread.....what next, Bolt is capable of dribbling a basketball, while ice skating and doing flips :roll:
                        on the road

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Speedfirst
                          Wow...another Bolt thread.....what next, Bolt is capable of dribbling a basketball, while ice skating and doing flips :roll:
                          Speedfirst is sooo predictable. Always polluting the Bolt threads.
                          Dude the guy is the flavour of the year, once someone does what he did this is going to happen. Lots of people are going to be as you so succinctly put it "on his nut(s)" Get over it
                          why don't people pronounce vowels anymore

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Speedfirst
                            Wow...another Bolt thread.....what next, Bolt is capable of dribbling a basketball, while ice skating and doing flips :roll:
                            It hurts doesn't it :lol:

                            As for the 9.4? Can he first run 9.6 on regular basis? Does he has your permission to run 9.6 first shhiiiitttt

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by DentyCracker
                              Originally posted by Speedfirst
                              Wow...another Bolt thread.....what next, Bolt is capable of dribbling a basketball, while ice skating and doing flips :roll:
                              Speedfirst is sooo predictable. Always polluting the Bolt threads.
                              Dude the guy is the flavour of the year, once someone does what he did this is going to happen. Lots of people are going to be as you so succinctly put it "on his nut(s)" Get over it
                              You ever heard of over kill, how bout cramming down your throat, how bout suffocating? Believe me, ain't no room left on his nuts, some folks have both of their hands and both feet wrapped around em, I think you might be one.
                              on the road

                              Comment

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