Herculis Meeting

[2 cents]

http://www.herculis.com/_herculis/herculis.php?pg=2
Startlists are up for the Herculis Meeting on July 28.
Symmonds is facing Borzakovskiy in the 800.
Solinsky and Jager are in the 3000.
Merritt is in the 400.
Some good Kenyans in the 1500. This meet is close on the heels of the Kenyans Trials, I believe.

[26mi235]

Re: Herculis Meeting

http://www.herculis.com/_herculis/herculis.php?pg=2
Startlists are up for the Herculis Meeting on July 28.

Solinsky and Jager are in the 3000.

Jerry Schumacher likes to have his guys runner a quick, shorter race a couple of weeks before a major objective and this fits the bill. This is probably most useful to Jager because he needs European race experience (won his B heat of the 1500 in H-Z in a PR, although a slightly inferior to his mile time at Pre(?).

[gadlor]

I'm curious if Symmonds will show better form than in his previous race at Luzern. 1.46.04 will not get you into the final at Berlin, if Osaka is any indication (last qualifier on time was Mohammed Al Salhi with 1:45.23).

Hopefully he comes around. I'd really like to see what he'd be able to do in the final.

[26mi235]

I'm curious if Symmonds will show better form than in his previous race at Luzern. 1.46.04 will not get you into the final at Berlin, if Osaka is any indication (last qualifier on time was Mohammed Al Salhi with 1:45.23).

Hopefully he comes around. I'd really like to see what he'd be able to do in the final.

Is the sole judge of a race the time of the participant? Shouldn't you be commenting on the race and not an inadequate summary statistic? For instance, did he look out of place and un-competitive? Remember, a slower time than this won the WCs last time.

[justblaze1011]

Its time for Symmonds to hit that 1:43 now. he's like my favorite middle disatnce guys.

[gadlor]

Is the sole judge of a race the time of the participant? Shouldn't you be commenting on the race and not an inadequate summary statistic? For instance, did he look out of place and un-competitive? Remember, a slower time than this won the WCs last time.

I was omitting my conjectures about his fitness based on his finish. He did seem to ease up at the end of the race, which is pretty uncharacteristic of him (he was not the winner - I think 3rd, maybe 4th). It seemed a little bizarre to me. He wasn't uncompetitive but it makes me wonder why he would be hesitant at the end of a race in Europe (when not leading) - no reason NOT to run as hard as you can, unless you've got some sort of injury on the mend.

I find that my 'inadequate summary statistic' is a lot more meritorious than the paragraph I just wrote, however. He finished in 1:46 low and he was not the winner - that pretty much gives you all you need to know (that he needs to improve or else his shot at the final is low). Osaka may have been won in 1:47 but it took 1:45 low to get in - as I just said. Musings on fitness based on just 'how he looked' seem kind of useless to me. I'd much rather look at the picture of how he's raced over the season...which, so far, has been not much.

[2 cents]

I see there is a Yusuf Kamel entered in the 1500, but he is listed as representing Qatar. Wasn't Yusuf Kamel running for Bahrain and then he wanted to go back and run for his native Kenya? Then there was some sort of controversy. He was listed as representing Bahrain at Lausanne this year. Is this the same man, the former Gregory Konchellah, and is he now competing for Qatar? He is a splendid athlete, having run 1:42.79 last year, but he has not shown that kind of form this year.

[26mi235]

He finished in 1:46 low and he was not the winner - that pretty much gives you all you need to know (that he needs to improve or else his shot at the final is low).

A certain Canadian ran 1:46.x and did not win, and certainly that number is a TERRIBLE summary of the race.

[gadlor]

800M Race A
1 Fabiano Peçanha BRA 1:46.01
2 Tamás Kazi HUN 1:46.17
3 Moise Joseph HAI 1:46.56
4 Nick Symmonds USA1:46.60
5 Dave Campbell IRL 1:47.23
6 Rob Myers USA 1:47.55
7 Nick Bromley AUS 1:48.09
8 Ryosuke Awazu JPN 1:48.34
9 Mario Bächtiger SUI 1:48.94

This is Luzern, the 1:46 to which I am referring.

Heat 1
31 August 2007 - 20:05
Position Lane Bib Athlete Country Mark .
1 8 780 Alfred Kirwa Yego KEN 1:44.54 Q (SB)
2 5 938 Mbulaeni Mulaudzi RSA 1:44.71 Q .
3 9 1063 Abraham Chepkirwok UGA 1:44.84 q .
4 7 1134 Khadevis Robinson USA 1:45.45 .
5 6 401 Fabiano Peçanha BRA 1:45.95 .
6 4 798 Dmitrijs Milkevics LAT 1:46.27 .
7 2 986 Abdoulaye Wagne SEN 1:46.49 .
8 3 814 Mouhssin Chehibi MAR 1:51.31 .
Heat 2
31 August 2007 - 20:12
Position Lane Bib Athlete Country Mark .
1 6 428 Gary Reed CAN 1:44.92 Q .
2 5 820 Amine Laalou MAR 1:45.11 Q .
3 3 949 Dmitriy Bogdanov RUS 1:45.36 (SB)
4 7 309 Nabil Madi ALG 1:45.59 .
5 8 514 Manuel Olmedo ESP 1:45.61 .
6 4 1140 Nick Symmonds USA 1:46.41 .
7 9 771 Justus Koech KEN 1:46.86 .
8 2 408 Rashid Ramzi BRN 1:47.76 .
Heat 3
31 August 2007 - 20:19
Position Lane Bib Athlete Country Mark .
1 7 950 Yuriy Borzakovskiy RUS 1:45.12 Q .
2 5 765 Wilfred Bungei KEN 1:45.20 Q .
3 9 785 Mohammed Al-Salhi KSA 1:45.23 q .
4 6 405 Yusuf Saad Kamel BRN 1:45.31 .
5 8 394 Kleberson Davide BRA 1:46.45 .
6 3 605 Michael Rimmer GBR 1:47.39 .
7 2 811 Yassine Bensghir MAR 1:48.04 .
8 4 794 Mohammad Al-Azemi KUW 1:50.28 .

And these are the semis in Osaka.

Sure, Reed ran 1:47 to get a silver. He also won his semi with a 1:44.92.
1:46 will not get you to the final. You can't be in medal contention -
no matter how slow the freakin' race is - without being in the final. And it will, most likely, take faster than 1:46 to be there.

If you have something else that you thought was important - from the Luzern race, mind you - then say it.

[26mi235]

And, of courses, Symmonds has never run 1:44 or beaten a WC/OG medalist.

[3]

1:46 will not get you to the final. You can't be in medal contention - no matter how slow the freakin' race is - without being in the final. And it will, most likely, take faster than 1:46 to be there.

Mr. gadlor, you've unfortunately misapplied the copying and pasting of those results as they only pertain to a minor point of proof.

Certainly one must not *assume* that 146 will make a final at the world championships, but to make a statement that it *will not* has a greater tendency of proving you to be false rather than of supporting the intended outcome you had hope to achieve when you stated it.

I've been able to locate the results of previous world championships with the great help of the IAAF archives. The results provide facts which submit that on several occasions, there were finals qualifiers who ran 146 or slower in their semifinals.

2003
2 men ran 146 in the 1st semifinal and q
2 men ran 146 in the 2nd semifinal and Q
2 men ran 146 in the 3rd semifinal and Q

1999
2 men ran 147 in the 3rd semifinal and Q

1997
4 men ran 146 in the 2nd semifinal and Q

1995
2 men ran 148 in the 1st semifinal and Q
2 men ran 149 in the 1st semifinal and Q
2 men ran 147 in the 2nd semifinal and Q
2 men ran 148 in the 2nd semifinal and Q

1991
2 men ran 146 in the 1st semifinal and Q
2 men ran 147 in the 1st semifinal and Q

1987
Every man in the 2nd semifinal ran 146 or slower

1983
14 out of the first 15 in semi1 and semi2 were run at 146 or slower

With 2005 and 2007 not permitting a 146 to enter the final, it would be *wiser* for an 800 guy to not attempt to enter Berlin and *assume* he will qualify to the final with a 146. But, history shows he may be safer than believed in that time zone.

[gadlor]

I certainly agree that running a 1:46 in a semi does not preclude you from getting in to the final - it just seems highly unlikely.

And I would actually argue that it makes more sense to pay attention to what happened at Osaka than to look at the history of the 800m at the World Championships - after all, it is not the 800m runners of 1983-2003 who Symmonds will be running against.

With the re-emergence of 1:42.xx talent in the past two years, the 800m has been on an competitive uptick globally. Admittedly, with Kaki's absence, this will quite probably hurt the competitiveness of the field - and the times, as he would certainly be the one to push the pace.

(And yes, certainly, there have been 1:42 runners at these other World Championships, but if the trend the last two Champs has been to faster semi's - with faster times run in 2008 than in those past two years - then I feel okay about my odds that this trend will continue)

We obviously cannot 'prove' anything about how the semi's will behave. That's why I hedge my bets by saying 'most likely' - if I meant definitively, I would have said it.

[gh]

Important distinction to be made, methinks. The semifinals of '91, '95, '97, & '01 were done w/ 2+2 format from three semis. All the other years were two semis, 4+0 (except '87, which was 3+2).

[3]

We obviously cannot 'prove' anything about how the semi's will behave. That's why I hedge my bets by saying 'most likely' - if I meant definitively, I would have said it.

Actually, you did: *1:46 will not get you to the final.*

[gadlor]

Sorry if I wasn't clear - I was referring to Osaka there (and I say "most likely" two sentences later!)

gh, to what do you refer with your 'important distinction' - your point about the semi's being a different format, or something previous?

I'm not sure what difference the format necessarily makes. No quals on time seems to suggest that races will go slower, as there is exactly no reason to run a fast time then.

It also looks like Symmonds will be competing in London, if the startlists do not lie - we'll get a better idea of what his fitness is. After all, the fun of the sport is in the watching and participating, not in the punching of numbers into a calculator.