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'09 London GP w400

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  • #16
    speedfirst - I hear what you're saying, but I think most people will be wondering if she can get to 49.low AFTER rounds, and having to run close to, or even under, 50 seconds in a semi

    In the US Trials, she didn't have to - but in Berlin, she will, particularly as the new Russian girl has shown she can run 49.low in a champs, and all of the others have run 49.6 in a champs. Sanya may have been able, if required - but we won't know until the final

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    • #17
      Originally posted by jjimbojames
      speedfirst - I hear what you're saying, but I think most people will be wondering if she can get to 49.low AFTER rounds, and having to run close to, or even under, 50 seconds in a semi

      In the US Trials, she didn't have to - but in Berlin, she will, particularly as the new Russian girl has shown she can run 49.low in a champs, and all of the others have run 49.6 in a champs. Sanya may have been able, if required - but we won't know until the final
      That is exactly what I was getting at. The Russian girl ran 49.2x and then came back the next day to run 49.7x! And am sure all the Russian girls are in the 49.x range, definitely Sherieka is there, Novlene can spit out 50.0x, Sanders is at least 50.low, Christine you never know.... For a good lane a 49.x seems like it will be required. And even if the weather is bad and they only run 50.x That 50.x would still be the same as a 49.x effort.

      So is Sanya going to do enough to qualify and risk getting a bad lane (and yes, lanes DOES matter, can completely destroy your race tactic running blind from lane 8 or having to run those steep turns from 1)?

      Or is she going to go for a preferred lane which might take it out of her for the final?

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      • #18
        Again I believe Sanya, for a few reasons will be prepared to run. Her experience in running rounds and also her experience of not performing up to her's and others expectations in other major meets, will help her, not hinder her.

        Being able to modify her race model if need be, the experience of running rounds. We don't know how effectively this new Russian will perform under a major meet setting.
        on the road

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Speedfirst
          Being able to modify her race model if need be, the experience of running rounds. We don't know how effectively this new Russian will perform under a major meet setting.
          Admittedly, not the same quality as we'll see in Berlin, but she did win the Euro Indoors as the favourite

          I think Sanya saying TBO was the favourite in that inerview was quite telling - she clearly is the best w400m in the world right now, and TBO is injured. The fact that she's trying to deflect pressure from that suggests to me she doesn't feel as confident as you might hope, IMO

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          • #20
            Originally posted by jjimbojames
            Originally posted by Speedfirst
            Being able to modify her race model if need be, the experience of running rounds. We don't know how effectively this new Russian will perform under a major meet setting.
            Admittedly, not the same quality as we'll see in Berlin, but she did win the Euro Indoors as the favourite

            I think Sanya saying TBO was the favourite in that inerview was quite telling - she clearly is the best w400m in the world right now, and TBO is injured. The fact that she's trying to deflect pressure from that suggests to me she doesn't feel as confident as you might hope, IMO
            I don't believe Sanya saying that, is in anyway a reflection of her confidence.
            Is it part of her mental preparation, sure I would say that. I'm sure you don't believe that when Sanya steps on the line, she is thinking to herself someone else is going win.
            on the road

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Speedfirst
              I don't believe Sanya saying that, is in anyway a reflection of her confidence. Is it part of her mental preparation, sure I would say that. I'm sure you don't believe that when Sanya steps on the line, she is thinking to herself someone else is going win.
              OK, call it 'mental preparation', if you prefer :wink: I believe Sanya believes she will win, but think because of this, she runs a bad race as she's desperate to assert herself. If she's going to win in Berlin, she needs to have what I call belief, or what some might call being mentally prepared for what is about to come

              As I say, she may well be ready for that - we will find out, soon enough

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              • #22
                Originally posted by jjimbojames
                Originally posted by Speedfirst
                I don't believe Sanya saying that, is in anyway a reflection of her confidence. Is it part of her mental preparation, sure I would say that. I'm sure you don't believe that when Sanya steps on the line, she is thinking to herself someone else is going win.
                OK, call it 'mental preparation', if you prefer :wink: I believe Sanya believes she will win, but think because of this, she runs a bad race as she's desperate to assert herself. If she's going to win in Berlin, she needs to have what I call belief, or what some might call being mentally prepared for what is about to come

                As I say, she may well be ready for that - we will find out, soon enough
                Part of the mental preparation is deflection, if your competitors have a sense of you being vulnerable leading to the race, this could alter their race model. But beyond that, you do what you need to mentally with regards to preparation. Because Sanya has been running well as well as training well, she'll have a sense of how she wants to run. If the race is at a point she'll have to exert, than that will simply have to be the case, I don't see that being a scenario this year.
                on the road

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                • #23
                  Good win, i still think it's too late for Sanders to be a threat to the gold. I so wish she didn't get loads of injuries because she would win gold with a low 49 at least.

                  Hopefully i'm wrong and she just needs sharpening up and is ready to go mid 49 and get the gold. If she can get a mid 50 in her next race I'll be happy and then maybe low 50 going into the champs. Then who knows.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Mikewats
                    Good win, i still think it's too late for Sanders to be a threat to the gold. I so wish she didn't get loads of injuries because she would win gold with a low 49 at least.

                    Hopefully i'm wrong and she just needs sharpening up and is ready to go mid 49 and get the gold. If she can get a mid 50 in her next race I'll be happy and then maybe low 50 going into the champs. Then who knows.
                    The season seems like it will require a 49.low at least to win and 49.mids to medal.

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                    • #25
                      By a threat, i mean a threat to medal.

                      Sanya is clearly the favourite, and she fully well knows it, being polite no doubt in post race interviews etc.

                      However behind that it is not clear cut. The Russians ability to reproduce their form outside is Russia is debateable, but Krivoshapka does look dangerous, not a whole lot of expperience at World and Olympic level though.

                      The other Americans don't look sub 50 runners, The Jamaicans can go sub 50 but by no means better than Nicola.

                      For me its fairly wide open, who knows for Ohurougu. I don't think she will even go to Berlin if she doesn't feel in at least medal shape.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by t_monk

                        The season seems like it will require a 49.low at least to win and 49.mids to medal.
                        I don't know Sanya is a choker, the russians rarely perform as well as they do at their champs. So i think a mid 49 could win it in a close race.

                        sanya choked in 05 she ran 49.7 and her SB was sub 49 thats a lot off

                        07 she choked at the trials in the 400 and then choked at the world champs in the 200

                        08 she choked

                        Saying that, her race plan is better this year because i've always felt she's gone out way too quick to try and get a PB in the final like she's michael Johnson or something when in reality she can cruise it and secure the victory.

                        If she decides to go off quickly again this year due to nerves or wanting to run a super fast time, she will choke again and be beaten. Lots of woman behind her to capitalize. 2 brits, id say 2 russians and a jamaican i think could all run mid 49 at least.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Mikewats
                          Originally posted by t_monk

                          The season seems like it will require a 49.low at least to win and 49.mids to medal.
                          I don't know Sanya is a choker, the russians rarely perform as well as they do at their champs. So i think a mid 49 could win it in a close race.

                          sanya choked in 05 she ran 49.7 and her SB was sub 49 thats a lot off

                          07 she choked at the trials in the 400 and then choked at the world champs in the 200

                          08 she choked

                          Saying that, her race plan is better this year because i've always felt she's gone out way too quick to try and get a PB in the final like she's michael Johnson or something when in reality she can cruise it and secure the victory.

                          If she decides to go off quickly again this year due to nerves or wanting to run a super fast time, she will choke again and be beaten. Lots of woman behind her to capitalize. 2 brits, id say 2 russians and a jamaican i think could all run mid 49 at least.
                          I'm pretty sure in 05 she ran that sub 49 AFTER WCs.

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                          • #28
                            yeah about a week after, clearly showed she was in great form and choked.

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