A weak year for men's HJ? [split]

[gh]

Unlikely it will happen, and I wouldn't remotely predict it, but if the Russians went 1-2-3 I wouldn't fall over dead. Not a vintage year at all to this point.

[Dietmar239]

Unlikely it will happen, and I wouldn't remotely predict it, but if the Russians went 1-2-3 I wouldn't fall over dead. Not a vintage year at all to this point.

I don't know gh. I could see Ukhov scaling in the 7'9" (2.37 or 2.38). He seems to have really found his rhythm. By all reports he was very cleanly over 2.35m and on his first attempt. Tereshin is the one that disappoints me. He consistently qualifies for the big meets and then tanks out. Oh, if only Silnov was healthy there would be some good pushing of Ukhov there. For now the only other hot jumper out there is Baba.

You are right about the year though. A seasonal best of 2.35 going into the WC's is paltry at best.

[imaginative]

Still, the probability of a russian triple is low: High jump is
so fickle an event that it is highly unlikely that there will
be neither a surprise from another country nor a flopping
(in the other sense) Russian.

In fact, the chances of 2.38 or better for the winner are likely
greater.

[Dietmar239]

Still, the probability of a russian triple is low: High jump is
so fickle an event that it is highly unlikely that there will
be neither a surprise from another country nor a flopping
(in the other sense) Russian.

In fact, the chances of 2.38 or better for the winner are likely
greater.

That's my point. They won't go 1-2-3, but Ukhov could go 2.38+. I can almost guarantee you that Tereshin will bust in Berlin.

[marknhj]

Unlikely it will happen, and I wouldn't remotely predict it, but if the Russians went 1-2-3 I wouldn't fall over dead. Not a vintage year at all to this point.

The world lead going into Berlin is the same as it was going into the Moscow Games.....29 years ago :cry:

[gh]

Yeah, as Dietmar noted, Bába is "hot" right now. But his outdoor season consists of this (4 meets over 2.30):

2.15 1)Ostrava 05/23
2.17 1)Danek-Turnov 05/26
2.22 =2)Pfingst-Rehlingen 06/01 1. Riedel.
2.31 2)Thessaloníki 06/10 1. Dmitrik.
2.31 2)Euro Teams 06/20 1. Krymarenko.
2.26 1)Lausanne GP 07/07
2.31 2)Athens GP 07/13 1. Ukhov.
2.33 1)London GP 07/25

Somewhere along the line, somebody repealed the Law of Gravity. No wait, I got that backwards; they rewrote it, and doubled it!

[gh]

In a quick peek at the IAAF lists, all of 17 men have combined to jump 2.30 or better 30 times this year.

Throw out an American and two Russians who won't be in Berlin and there are only 14 guys at 2.30 or better to consider for a formchart. Indeed weak.

[Powell]

It has a lot to do with the WCh A and B qualifiers. They were raised by a cm this year, and most top meets have height progression which matches them.

Last year, 31 men cleared 2.30 outdoors, but only 14 did 2.31 or higher. There was only one with a SB of 2.29 and one with 2.28, but 22 at 2.27 (which was the Olympic B qualifier).

This year, 14 men cleared 2.31, so if you use that, rather than 2.30, as the benchmark, 2008 has already been matched. The difference is that there are only 3 men at 2.30 this season. Likewise, 34 men have already cleared 2.28 - that's one more than in 2008, but if you use 2.27 as the limit, the number is only 36 this year compared to 53 last year.

[gh]

OK, so you've proved that '08 sucked too! :-)

[Powell]

If 2008 did, so did all other years in the last decade.

[lapsus]

OK, so you've proved that '08 sucked too! :-)

So did '07 if you consider the outdoor world best that year! And still it feels to me like there are more jumpers capable of 2.40 heights these days that in the early 2000s.

Well, this year it is more like "jumper" than "jumpers".

[mikli]

In terms of top20 averages, 2008 was not a bad year, and 2009 is likely not becoming bad either, if one makes comparisons to the 2000s:

top20 averages outdoor:

2000: 2.330
2001: 2.323
2002: 2.320
2003: 2.318
2004: 2.320
2005: 2.326
2006: 2.322
2007: 2.321
2008: 2.325
2009 (so far): 2.316

1988 is still the best year with 2.356

more throughout data here: http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... hp?t=31194

[Powell]

Also, 2008 had the most jumpers at 2.30 or above of all years since 2000 (31, compared to 30 in 2007 and not more than 25 in any other year), as well the most at 2.27 or above (2.26 and 2.25, too).

[Dietmar239]

Weak is a relative term. Statistically, it may have been pretty good. However, when you you're used to your Sjoberg, Sotomayor, Thranhardt, Paklin, these current results kind of pale. How many times has 2.40m been cleared since Soto? Voronin, Holm, Ukhov. That's it. It's just not exciting anymore.

[Powell]

I agree - at the very top it's much weaker than it used to be. But gh, in his initial post, talked about depth.