09 GN Gala m400m: Warriner 44.83

[OBUTRACKSTER]

For 2nd place, but I dont see Wariner running with Lashawn. Write it down.

Neither of them has looked remotely close to 2008 form so far this year. I'd pick Merritt for gold right now, but without all that much confidence.

Would it be sacrilege to suggest somebody else just might step up and beat them both this time?

Yes it would be sacrilege to say that. If he is running a 44.8 as easily as everyone says it is.. Then either him or LM will win. No one else in the world is going to run a sub 44.60 at worlds. Write that down :lol:

Kirani James will. Write that down.

One love.

I guess I didn't make myself clear. I meant at 2009 World Championships no one other than JW and LM will run sub 44.60. Guess you thought I meant 2011.. :roll: :roll:

[3]

They are both significantly slower than at the same stage of previous seasons. They managed to peak well in the past, but they never improved by the huge margins you're suggesting they're going to.

Mr. Powell, I have *not yet* disclosed my prediction for this event. I actually did ask two separate questions: A) is the likelihood that these two will *not* run under 44s based upon the fact that they have not yet run under 44s or B) is it based on the fact that their best times are extremely over the 44s barrier? The first selection would permit a 44'02" for example, whereas the second alternative would stop at 44'50".

An alternative which you appear to not take into consideration is that there may be a financial incentive to peak later this season, as one or both may chase the world record *after* the world championships and hope to have gas left in the tank to finish the GP season strongly.

[Speedfirst]

Powell.....what times are you projecting they both will have and who do you see as the winner?

[Powell]

Mr. Powell is the *likelihood factor* based on their never having waited this long in a season to run under 44s in the 400m or is it based on this particular year's season best times as they approach Berlin?

Isn't that just two ways of stating the same thing?

Wariner's pre-major championship bests and major championship final performances in the past:
2004 44.37/ 44.00 in OG final (improvement of 0.37)
2005 44.20/ 43.93 in WCh final (improvement of 0.27)
2007 43.50/ 43.45 in WCh final (improvement of 0.05)
2008 43.86/ 44.74 in OG final (0.88 slower!)
2009 44.66/ ?

And for Merritt:
2007 44.06/ 43.96 (improvement of 0.10)
2008 43.98/ 43.75 (improvement of 0.23)
2009 44.50/ ?

They are both significantly slower than at the same stage of previous seasons. They managed to peak well in the past, but they never improved by the huge margins you're suggesting they're going to.

[3]

Mr. Powell is the *likelihood factor* based on their never having waited this long in a season to run under 44s in the 400m or is it based on this particular year's season best times as they approach Berlin?

[Powell]

Mr. Powell, it reads differently: *magically drop their times by a second in two weeks' time. They've never done it before.*

This appears to read *that because Mr. Merritt and Mr. Wariner have not dropped their times before within two weeks of a championship, they shouldn't be expected to be able to do it now.*

Well, that's exactly what I'm saying: I don't expect them to run sub-44. Not saying it's impossible, just unlikely. Not as unlikely as a guy improving from 79 to 85 meters with one throw (and as we saw today, even that does occasionally happen), but still unlikely.

[guruof track]

Kirani James just barely beat Tarvis Tate yesterday. And I'm not taking anything away from James because he is REALLY good for a Jr, but expecting him to shave over .5 off his PR is a bit much.

Nothing wrong with that. Tate is a monster also.

One love.

I agree with that...........but neither of those guys are running sub 45 at this point, let alone sub 44.6.

Hence the point of my post above.

[3]

My point is not that they cannot run faster. I'm just surprised everyone is talking as if it's a sure thing.

Mr. Powell, it reads differently: *magically drop their times by a second in two weeks' time. They've never done it before.*

This appears to read *that because Mr. Merritt and Mr. Wariner have not dropped their times before within two weeks of a championship, they shouldn't be expected to be able to do it now.*

[frontrunner]

Kirani James just barely beat Tarvis Tate yesterday. And I'm not taking anything away from James because he is REALLY good for a Jr, but expecting him to shave over .5 off his PR is a bit much.

Nothing wrong with that. Tate is a monster also.

One love.

[guruof track]

Kirani James just barely beat Tarvis Tate yesterday. And I'm not taking anything away from James because he is REALLY good for a Jr, but expecting him to shave over .5 off his PR is a bit much.

[frontrunner]

For 2nd place, but I dont see Wariner running with Lashawn. Write it down.

Neither of them has looked remotely close to 2008 form so far this year. I'd pick Merritt for gold right now, but without all that much confidence.

Would it be sacrilege to suggest somebody else just might step up and beat them both this time?

Yes it would be sacrilege to say that. If he is running a 44.8 as easily as everyone says it is.. Then either him or LM will win. No one else in the world is going to run a sub 44.60 at worlds. Write that down :lol:

Kirani James will. Write that down.

One love.

[Powell]

The Polish guy never threw 85m before today.

So you're saying it could have been expected he would do it?

My point is not that they cannot run faster. I'm just surprised everyone is talking as if it's a sure thing.

[3]

I don't know why everyone seems to be sure they will magically drop their times by a second in two weeks' time. They've never done it before.

The Polish guy never threw 85m before today.

[Speedfirst]

why would JW wait until the WCs to see what time he can run? That doesn't make any sense to me. He certainly never used that strategy before.
Athletes need to get out and compete and test themselves. To train and train and train, and not get on the track and push oneself and get some measure of how the training is paying off, seems counter-intuitive to me.

That's what I say, too. Last year, both LM and JW were regularly running around 44 flat. This year, their fastest times of the season so far are around the same level as their slowest last year. I don't know why everyone seems to be sure they will magically drop their times by a second in two weeks' time. They've never done it before.

I don't think anyone is saying for sure about what the times will be, but I assure you with both LM & JW, the times will be faster than what we've seen so far this year. Really i won't be the least bit surprised of a mid 43 by either one.

[Powell]

why would JW wait until the WCs to see what time he can run? That doesn't make any sense to me. He certainly never used that strategy before.
Athletes need to get out and compete and test themselves. To train and train and train, and not get on the track and push oneself and get some measure of how the training is paying off, seems counter-intuitive to me.

That's what I say, too. Last year, both LM and JW were regularly running around 44 flat. This year, their fastest times of the season so far are around the same level as their slowest last year. I don't know why everyone seems to be sure they will magically drop their times by a second in two weeks' time. They've never done it before.