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09 GN Gala m400m: Warriner 44.83

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  • #46
    Originally posted by guruof track
    Kirani James just barely beat Tarvis Tate yesterday. And I'm not taking anything away from James because he is REALLY good for a Jr, but expecting him to shave over .5 off his PR is a bit much.
    Nothing wrong with that. Tate is a monster also.

    One love.

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by Powell
      My point is not that they cannot run faster. I'm just surprised everyone is talking as if it's a sure thing.
      Mr. Powell, it reads differently: *magically drop their times by a second in two weeks' time. They've never done it before.*

      This appears to read *that because Mr. Merritt and Mr. Wariner have not dropped their times before within two weeks of a championship, they shouldn't be expected to be able to do it now.*
      Fire Impossible.

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by frontrunner
        Originally posted by guruof track
        Kirani James just barely beat Tarvis Tate yesterday. And I'm not taking anything away from James because he is REALLY good for a Jr, but expecting him to shave over .5 off his PR is a bit much.
        Nothing wrong with that. Tate is a monster also.

        One love.
        I agree with that...........but neither of those guys are running sub 45 at this point, let alone sub 44.6.

        Hence the point of my post above.

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by 3
          Mr. Powell, it reads differently: *magically drop their times by a second in two weeks' time. They've never done it before.*

          This appears to read *that because Mr. Merritt and Mr. Wariner have not dropped their times before within two weeks of a championship, they shouldn't be expected to be able to do it now.*
          Well, that's exactly what I'm saying: I don't expect them to run sub-44. Not saying it's impossible, just unlikely. Not as unlikely as a guy improving from 79 to 85 meters with one throw (and as we saw today, even that does occasionally happen), but still unlikely.
          Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

          Comment


          • #50
            Mr. Powell is the *likelihood factor* based on their never having waited this long in a season to run under 44s in the 400m or is it based on this particular year's season best times as they approach Berlin?
            Fire Impossible.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by 3
              Mr. Powell is the *likelihood factor* based on their never having waited this long in a season to run under 44s in the 400m or is it based on this particular year's season best times as they approach Berlin?
              Isn't that just two ways of stating the same thing?

              Wariner's pre-major championship bests and major championship final performances in the past:
              2004 44.37/ 44.00 in OG final (improvement of 0.37)
              2005 44.20/ 43.93 in WCh final (improvement of 0.27)
              2007 43.50/ 43.45 in WCh final (improvement of 0.05)
              2008 43.86/ 44.74 in OG final (0.88 slower!)
              2009 44.66/ ?

              And for Merritt:
              2007 44.06/ 43.96 (improvement of 0.10)
              2008 43.98/ 43.75 (improvement of 0.23)
              2009 44.50/ ?

              They are both significantly slower than at the same stage of previous seasons. They managed to peak well in the past, but they never improved by the huge margins you're suggesting they're going to.
              Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

              Comment


              • #52
                Powell.....what times are you projecting they both will have and who do you see as the winner?
                on the road

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by Powell
                  They are both significantly slower than at the same stage of previous seasons. They managed to peak well in the past, but they never improved by the huge margins you're suggesting they're going to.
                  Mr. Powell, I have *not yet* disclosed my prediction for this event. I actually did ask two separate questions: A) is the likelihood that these two will *not* run under 44s based upon the fact that they have not yet run under 44s or B) is it based on the fact that their best times are extremely over the 44s barrier? The first selection would permit a 44'02" for example, whereas the second alternative would stop at 44'50".

                  An alternative which you appear to not take into consideration is that there may be a financial incentive to peak later this season, as one or both may chase the world record *after* the world championships and hope to have gas left in the tank to finish the GP season strongly.
                  Fire Impossible.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by frontrunner
                    Originally posted by OBUTRACKSTER
                    Originally posted by Powell
                    Originally posted by guruof track
                    For 2nd place, but I dont see Wariner running with Lashawn. Write it down.
                    Neither of them has looked remotely close to 2008 form so far this year. I'd pick Merritt for gold right now, but without all that much confidence.

                    Would it be sacrilege to suggest somebody else just might step up and beat them both this time?
                    Yes it would be sacrilege to say that. If he is running a 44.8 as easily as everyone says it is.. Then either him or LM will win. No one else in the world is going to run a sub 44.60 at worlds. Write that down :lol:
                    Kirani James will. Write that down.

                    One love.
                    I guess I didn't make myself clear. I meant at 2009 World Championships no one other than JW and LM will run sub 44.60. Guess you thought I meant 2011.. :roll: :roll:
                    http://i42.tinypic.com/wlqckx.jpg

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by bman
                      Originally posted by nbonaddio

                      DM?
                      ...
                      Drug Money.
                      This ends here and now.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Merritt wins with 44.15 over Wariner 44.50.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Mikewats
                          If Wariner comes out with a silver with a 43 I don't think the season will be a disaster, it's something to build on for next year. If Wariner hadn't ran those terrible 200's at the trials I'd be more positive.
                          According to Hart and Wariner, JW had rolled his ankle before Nats, so I doubt he or Clyde were expecting much other than testing the ankle and seeing where JW was condition-wise.

                          I still think it's going to be tough for JW to hit very fast - for him - times this year after getting together with Hart 'so late' (May). But I still believe he can medal. Merritt is running as fast as he has to. For the most part, both have been winning their races by decent margins, which shows they are still the top dogs. For now.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by 3
                            An alternative which you appear to not take into consideration is that there may be a financial incentive to peak later this season, as one or both may chase the world record *after* the world championships and hope to have gas left in the tank to finish the GP season strongly.
                            Why would have an incentive to peak late in the season this year, when they didn't have it in any of the last 5 years? What changed in 2009?
                            Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Where was Mr. Wariner's competition in the last five years?

                              Truly, his competition didn't start catching up to him until 2007, though Mr. Wariner was able to win another world title.

                              Mr. Wariner's supremacy and exclusive post at the top was supplanted in 2008 by Mr. Merritt during a change of the guard. However, Mr. Merritt was not able to keep a perfect record against Mr. Wariner, and lost against the previous Olympic Champion following Mr. Merritt's own gold medal haul in Beijing.

                              They've taken completely different routes in 2009, with nary a sight of each other at the same time on the same track in the 400m.

                              Mr. Merritt will attempt to win the World Championships against the competitors who qualify --- presumably also against Mr. Wariner --- and take another crown Mr. Wariner holds. Mr. Wariner is doing what he can to defend that title.

                              Berlin will cause one of the two athletes to absorb their first finals loss of the season. Then the tide rises and everything becomes interesting for them as it did last year when potential post-championship are offered for this rivalry to take place in Z├╝rich, Brussels and the World Athletics Final.

                              One of the two has to lose those 1, 2 or all 3 remaining challenges as well. I can make a safe assumption that neither wants to be defeated in any final this season.

                              Having a undefeated season and being crowned World Champion will have a financial incentive whether you choose to make this admission or not.
                              Fire Impossible.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Wariner had comp in 04 with Otis Harris whom he barely beat for a title. In O5 he had comp too, his REAL dominance came in the 06 and 07 seasons. In 08 it ended.

                                Comment

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