09 GN Gala m400m: Warriner 44.83

[3]

*Why would have an incentive to peak late in the season this year, when they didn't have it in any of the last 5 years?*

Mr. Powell, are you truly asking why Mr. Wariner didn't peak later in 2004 when he already had to run NCAA indoor, NCAA outdoor, and the Olympic Trials prior to that Olympic 400m final in Athens?

Before setting in on that path of dominance in 2006-2007, Mr. Wariner only approached his best 2x in 2005, though he didn't have *competition* the way he did in 2004. Mr. Rock was a well-beaten 2nd in Helsinki. Mr. Wariner was unable to approach anywhere near his best in his closing 2 meets.

That brings you back up to 2006-2007, of which only 1 was an important year. He never broke 44s again following Osaka.

I believe that Mr. Wariner would like to end this year on a huge upswing.

[Powell]

Mr. Powell, are you truly asking why Mr. Wariner didn't peak later in 2004 when he already had to run NCAA indoor, NCAA outdoor, and the Olympic Trials prior to that Olympic 400m final in Athens?

Well, no, 2004 was clearly different to all his later seasons.

Before setting in on that path of dominance in 2006-2007, Mr. Wariner only approached his best 2x in 2005, though he didn't have *competition* the way he did in 2004. Mr. Rock was a well-beaten 2nd in Helsinki. Mr. Wariner was unable to approach anywhere near his best in his closing 2 meets.

He ran 44.53 as early as May that year, and 44.20 at the US Trials.

That brings you back up to 2006-2007, of which only 1 was an important year. He never broke 44s again following Osaka.

44 seconds is an arbitrary limit. As it happened, he ran 44.05 and 44.02 in 2 of his last 3 races.

[3]

Mr. Powell, I'll drop the *arbritary* 44"00. In his last 3 races, exactly how far from 43"45 were those times? Is it possible that in 2009 he'll want to be as close to his best later in the season that he was then? By virtue of using the marks example that you did, you've successfully defended the notion that Mr. Wariner has the ability to run fast later in the season again --- which appears to have been your point of contention.

If 2004 was *clearly different* to his later seasons, why did you ask what had occured the last 5 years when 2004 is clearly part of that time frame?

Mr. Wariner's 44"53 in early May was exactly how far from 44"00 his Pr? Was it not closer to 45"00 than 44"00?

[Powell]

Is it possible that in 2009 he'll want to be as close to his best later in the season that he was then?

Anything is possible, but this is just a hypothesis with nothing to support it other than 'I think it's so'.

If 2004 was *clearly different* to his later seasons, why did you ask what had occured the last 5 years when 2004 is clearly part of that time frame?

Because my point was about how much he was able to improve in major championship finals compared to his SB in the earlier part of the season. 2004 was relevant to that argument.

Mr. Wariner's 44'53" in early May was exactly how far from 44'00" his Pr? Was it not closer to 45'00" than 44'00"?

Exactly 0.53. The point is he progressed to 44.20 in June. In the past he was gradually progressing throughout the season. This year he seems to be getting slower, not faster, as the WCh draw near.

[3]

This year he seems to be getting slower, not faster, as the WCh draw near.

Mr. Powell, that is a very fair and accurate assessment, as you have a clearly defined set of data to back that up. I believe it is an appearance which is deceiving, but none of us will quite know until Mr. Wariner steps up to run in Berlin.

[Jacksf]

When you say that it is an appearance which is deceiving, you mean that Wariner is running slower on purpose, in order to lull Merritt into a false sense of security, right?
Although that may be a good strategy - I believe JW's feeling of invincibility is what lead to his changing coaches, changing training, and ultimately his defeat in Beijing - I doubt it is the case.

[3]

Mr. Jacksf, the deception is that Mr. Wariner isn't running all-out, that's it. However, neither is Mr. Merritt, so however deceptive the appearance may be, it won't fool either athlete.

[knite]

Wariner changed his rac epattern though, as far as this last race is concerned.

Is he capable of being at the same level/speed as in previous yrs? Since he wasn't out to the 250/300m mark by himself. He awaited for the final straight to kick....

Will Merritt leave himself back with the rest of the field at that far into the race to use his kick? Doubt it.

Its funny though because it appears both are not showing their full hand, or at least to our eyes we don't know their capabilities this yr.

Merritt has clearly only ran fast enough as he needed, and with Wariner's last 2 races, it appears to be the same.

[Madd Marine]

Wariner had comp in 04 with Otis Harris whom he barely beat for a title. In O5 he had comp too, his REAL dominance came in the 06 and 07 seasons. In 08 it ended.

That's true. JW was not overpowering fields until 06. I agree that he became too full of himself, and that led to him changing coaches and cost him Gold in Beijing. While I think this year it would be tough to climb back to the top spot on the podium with a coaching change in May, next season will show if he's going to remain one of the top 1 lappers or just fade. It's possible JW is not showing his hand right now, maybe that's Hart's idea. But you would think both guys would want to work on their 'best' tactics in at least one real race before Berlin. The flip side is that if either runs under 44 it wouldn't be a total surprise, not like performances from others in the past who suddenly dropped bombs and then disappeared. We know what these guys are capable of. It's just that no one is quite sure of JW's condition at all, while LM has burned a fast 200 and has looked very relaxed in his races.