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09' Cottbus w4x100 - USA 41.58

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  • Megas15
    replied
    Footspeed Really isn't all

    I find it interesting that some folks have gone as far as predicting specific times for the women 4x100m relay. I remember in 1988 when Flo Jo was running 10.5's and Evelyn low 10.8's and still came up with a time of 41.97 for the win; in addition, Evelyn had to run down Gohr for a close finish...

    Leave a comment:


  • justblaze1011
    replied
    Originally posted by TrainerPhil
    Originally posted by justblaze1011

    SIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! did any of you watch the 2004 men's 4x100m finals or was it just me???

    When will you people learn that footspeed isn't the key factor in winning this event??? I mean damn!!!
    Correct. Footspeed isn't everything. BUT, the JAMS have enough of it where if they get the stick around they should win. But lemme address each point you bring up.

    Where is point 1?

    2. Veronica isn't running like the Veronica of last season...are we blind here??
    True. She is behind in her readiness for Beijing because of the various injuries she has had to deal with. But this season she has still run faster than everyone on the US relay team not named Jeter. And if you are going to bank on Lee to be ready, I'd say that in the same breath you better expect VCB to be killer on that anchor.

    [quote:376ojcyc]3. Kerron has ran ONE fast time. She has shown nothing else...mainly because of her injury. No one knows if she's been able to train full speed or if she's been training with caution.
    This is where you are wrong and your making me go to the iaaf website to look up all of her times.

    All of her legal times this season as follows:

    10.75 (+0.4)
    10.92 (+1.2)
    10.93 (-1.5)
    10.93 (+1,3)
    10.99 (+0.1)
    10.99 (+0.2)

    That's 6 times under 11 this season. Jeter has done it 3 times, with her fastest being 10.92.

    Any one that think that this race is going to be a blowout needs to take step back and hop off the joint, becausee it clouding your "insight" and I use that word very loose!!!
    Granted if Kerron's foot is an issue, this will come right down to the anchor. But, if Kerron is healthy.......the Jams will begin to pull away on that 3rd leg and Jeter is NOT catching VCB.

    Not a blowout, but I'm confortable predicting that Jamaica will win in record time.[/quote:376ojcyc]

    AFTER she ran that 10.75 what has she don't??? Her running 10.9 isn't nothing new because she's done it in previous years.

    Leave a comment:


  • texas_speed
    replied
    Originally posted by TrainerPhil
    Originally posted by Speedfirst
    Allyson will more than hold her own against Stewart, granted Stewart runs 2nd leg. Allyson has been working on speed, things are falling into place just nicely for her. Her running start, 200m work which helps sustain her speed in this relay is a plus for her. I truly love the rest of the runners abilities as well and U.S. chances in this event and again that world record will be threaten
    Speedfirst, wouldn't you think the more likely lineup is :

    SAF-Brooks/Facey/Simpson-Kerron-VCB ?

    I think Lauryn has little shot at getting the stick to Felix before the Jams make their 2nd exhange, but I expect Felix to run down whoever is on the 2nd leg for JA. From there I think it is all Jamaican unless Kerron is still not 100%,
    I'm still curious about all these suggested lineups I've seen with Kerron or VCB running 3rd.

    History has not shown this IMO.

    The most probable lineup I can see for the JAM squad is:
    SAF-Kerron-Brooks/Facey/Simpson/Bailey-VCB

    Despite "the changing of the guard" for lack of a better phrase I'd be hard pressed to figure out who will convince VCB to give up her anchor leg position. It just isn't going to happen from what I can tell.

    Do I think that is the best lineup? No. But that seems to be what they've shown a penchant to run. Despite her amazing start in the open 100 SAF is not the game changer some make her out to be on the 1st leg of the 4x1.

    Kerron and Allyson is a wash if both healthy....if Kerron is not 100% that puts them at a huge disadvantage IMO. Kerron's health status (her foot) is yet another reason why I don't see her running 3rd. Running the curve couldn't be good for her foot.

    Muna or Marshevet will eat Brooks/Facey/Simpson/Bailey alive on 3rd and then it's a mad dash for the finish between Jeter and VCB.

    I'll take the U.S. squad...for the win and the WR.

    Leave a comment:


  • 26mi235
    replied
    Phil, are you sure about Jeter? I thought that she had some good 10.9s plus wind-aided 10.7s. Certainly those would yield a similar number of sub-11s (don't know how many it adds to Kerron).

    Leave a comment:


  • TrainerPhil
    replied
    Originally posted by justblaze1011

    SIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! did any of you watch the 2004 men's 4x100m finals or was it just me???

    When will you people learn that footspeed isn't the key factor in winning this event??? I mean damn!!!
    Correct. Footspeed isn't everything. BUT, the JAMS have enough of it where if they get the stick around they should win. But lemme address each point you bring up.

    Where is point 1?

    2. Veronica isn't running like the Veronica of last season...are we blind here??
    True. She is behind in her readiness for Beijing because of the various injuries she has had to deal with. But this season she has still run faster than everyone on the US relay team not named Jeter. And if you are going to bank on Lee to be ready, I'd say that in the same breath you better expect VCB to be killer on that anchor.

    3. Kerron has ran ONE fast time. She has shown nothing else...mainly because of her injury. No one knows if she's been able to train full speed or if she's been training with caution.
    This is where you are wrong and your making me go to the iaaf website to look up all of her times.

    All of her legal times this season as follows:

    10.75 (+0.4)
    10.92 (+1.2)
    10.93 (-1.5)
    10.93 (+1,3)
    10.99 (+0.1)
    10.99 (+0.2)

    That's 6 times under 11 this season. Jeter has done it 3 times, with her fastest being 10.92.

    Any one that think that this race is going to be a blowout needs to take step back and hop off the joint, becausee it clouding your "insight" and I use that word very loose!!!
    Granted if Kerron's foot is an issue, this will come right down to the anchor. But, if Kerron is healthy.......the Jams will begin to pull away on that 3rd leg and Jeter is NOT catching VCB.

    Not a blowout, but I'm confortable predicting that Jamaica will win in record time.

    Leave a comment:


  • justblaze1011
    replied
    Originally posted by TrainerPhil
    Originally posted by TrackDaddy
    When I said a week or so ago that the US women CAN WIN guruoftrack and few others balked based on open 100m times.

    I was told that the US women don't have the foospeed to compete with JA.

    Jokers quiet now.
    Not quiet at all. They still don't have the footspeed to win IMO. I was thoroughly impressed with their recent time and it certainly shows me that USA will not lay down. In fact if they get the stick around they could very well go under the curent world record. I just can't see Lee running with Kerron on that 3rd leg and I can't see Jeter running with VCB on the anchor. I think SAF+Simpson/Brooks/Facey and Lauryn+Felix is a wash.......
    SIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! did any of you watch the 2004 men's 4x100m finals or was it just me???

    When will you people learn that footspeed isn't the key factor in winning this event??? I mean damn!!!

    2. Veronica isn't running like the Veronica of last season...are we blind here??

    3. Kerron has ran ONE fast time. She has shown nothing else...mainly because of her injury. No one knows if she's been able to train full speed or if she's been training with caution.

    Any one that think that this race is going to be a blowout needs to take step back and hop off the joint, becausee it clouding your "insight" and I use that word very loose!!!

    Leave a comment:


  • rasb
    replied
    There are always lots of ifs, whatevers, and whereases, associated with the relays, particularly the 4 x 100 m.
    But here is my best guess-timate, and the "if" is spelled Muna Lee.
    Other things being equal, and assuming reasonable passing by all,
    I say that if Muna is back to top speed and health, and runs the corner as she did in the 200 final in Eugene, then the USA will be very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet the farm, but I see them as a slight favourite, going in. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.... (for now)...

    Leave a comment:


  • TrackDaddy
    replied
    Originally posted by TrainerPhil
    Originally posted by TrackDaddy
    Hooker looked good.

    Muna got the stick first on 3rd leg but the exchange to anchor was simultaneous.

    After watching the video I see the real difference in the result being first leg and anchor, IMO. Lauryn chewed up first and Jeter crushed the anchor.

    If Muna by chance isnt health, we may not miss a beat with Hooker based on what I saw here.
    That's where you are right. The American girls have depth. Tremendous depth. If they lose any runner to injury, they can be replaced without a significant fall off. The the Jams lose SAF, Kerron or VCB, they will have a hard time filling that gap. Brooks/Facey/Simpson aren't "slouches" :wink: , but the Jams don't have the depth team USA has.
    Agreed, TP.

    Felix looked good on second, but Alex the Great was effective too.

    The real difference in the two US teams that ran came when Jeter separated on anchor.

    Leave a comment:


  • TrainerPhil
    replied
    Originally posted by TrackDaddy
    Hooker looked good.

    Muna got the stick first on 3rd leg but the exchange to anchor was simultaneous.

    After watching the video I see the real difference in the result being first leg and anchor, IMO. Lauryn chewed up first and Jeter crushed the anchor.

    If Muna by chance isnt health, we may not miss a beat with Hooker based on what I saw here.
    That's where you are right. The American girls have depth. Tremendous depth. If they lose any runner to injury, they can be replaced without a significant fall off. The the Jams lose SAF, Kerron or VCB, they will have a hard time filling that gap. Brooks/Facey/Simpson aren't "slouches" :wink: , but the Jams don't have the depth team USA has.

    Leave a comment:


  • TrackDaddy
    replied
    Hooker looked good.

    Muna got the stick first on 3rd leg but the exchange to anchor was simultaneous.

    After watching the video I see the real difference in the result being first leg and anchor, IMO. Lauryn chewed up first and Jeter crushed the anchor.

    If Muna by chance isnt health, we may not miss a beat with Hooker based on what I saw here.

    Leave a comment:


  • Speedfirst
    replied
    Originally posted by TrainerPhil
    Originally posted by Speedfirst
    Allyson will more than hold her own against Stewart, granted Stewart runs 2nd leg. Allyson has been working on speed, things are falling into place just nicely for her. Her running start, 200m work which helps sustain her speed in this relay is a plus for her. I truly love the rest of the runners abilities as well and U.S. chances in this event and again that world record will be threaten
    Speedfirst, wouldn't you think the more likely lineup is :

    SAF-Brooks/Facey/Simpson-Kerron-VCB ?

    I think Lauryn has little shot at getting the stick to Felix before the Jams make their 2nd exhange, but I expect Felix to run down whoever is on the 2nd leg for JA. From there I think it is all Jamaican unless Kerron is still not 100%,
    That lineup maybe the one or ones, however Lauryn will be up to the challenge on the scratch leg, Allyson gives Muna the lead, Muna not losing that. Carmelita is ready, has been running very well this year, which is an understatement, I don't see her failing to continue to do while in Berlin.

    Leave a comment:


  • TrainerPhil
    replied
    Originally posted by Speedfirst
    Allyson will more than hold her own against Stewart, granted Stewart runs 2nd leg. Allyson has been working on speed, things are falling into place just nicely for her. Her running start, 200m work which helps sustain her speed in this relay is a plus for her. I truly love the rest of the runners abilities as well and U.S. chances in this event and again that world record will be threaten
    Speedfirst, wouldn't you think the more likely lineup is :

    SAF-Brooks/Facey/Simpson-Kerron-VCB ?

    I think Lauryn has little shot at getting the stick to Felix before the Jams make their 2nd exhange, but I expect Felix to run down whoever is on the 2nd leg for JA. From there I think it is all Jamaican unless Kerron is still not 100%,

    Leave a comment:


  • Speedfirst
    replied
    Originally posted by jamstar
    Originally posted by Drewsun
    Originally posted by Speedfirst
    Originally posted by Drewsun
    I don't know why this performance is such a surprise to some folks, with reasonable passes it's in line with what I'd expect given the current form of the American sprinters. Take for example the 2004 Jamaican team which had at the time.

    VCB in 10.9 form
    Simpson in just under 11.1 form
    Bailey in just under 11.1 form
    Lawrence in just under 11.2 form (generous perhaps)

    That team, with mediocre passes ran about 2 tenths slower than the Americans did today with what sounds like slightly better passes, today's Jamaican team will look like (barring injury etc): -

    VCB in 10.9 or around 11.00 shape
    Stewart in 10.7 or maybe 10.8 or even 10.9 shape
    SAF likely in 10.7 but maybe 10.8 shape
    and Books lets say sub 11.2

    Seems to me 41.5 won't be that big of a deal for them, probably more like 41.4 or 41.3 to be honest. The key is, can they get the stick around fairly efficiently?
    All in all, nobody should be surprised by the excellent performancte of the Americans but if the script holds, this won't be nearly enough.

    Just my 2 cents
    The U.S. will run faster as well, the exchange from Allyson to Muna will be better, they ran away with the race today. So of course with JA in the race, a faster time is in order.
    I agree, the Americans will likely step up their game, but let's look at the matchups given current form.

    1. I expect Brooks vs Williams on start, given current form not much between them but advantage Americans I say.

    2. On second, Stewart vs Felix, clear advantage to the Jamaicans if Stewart is ok, she has blinding speed and is accustomed to the left hand carry on backstretch so the Jamaican's reach the 3rd leg first (but only just).

    3. Third leg VCB vs Lee, even in less the stellar form VCB's work on the turn is legendary (2 Olympic Golds) not much of a contest here, the Jamaicans begin to pull away.

    4. Anchor sees SAF vs Jeter, it hardly seems fair especially since the Jamaican already has a lead. So the Jamaican's put it away, world record perhaps? The American's run faster than they did today but the Jamaicans have the speed to get the job done.

    My 2 cents, any takers?

    P.S. I really love this American team, definitley the best lineup possible I think.[/quote

    Sorry but u got the match ups wrong shelly ann fraser will not be anchoring the jamaican team she will be starting no question asked.. brooks if they have her run would be on the second leg ..... 3rd and 4th leg haven't been cemented yet but it would make sense to put veronica on the third leg cuz she is a curve runner and have kerron take it home. Its the same result just a different order tho
    Allyson will more than hold her own against Stewart, granted Stewart runs 2nd leg. Allyson has been working on speed, things are falling into place just nicely for her. Her running start, 200m work which helps sustain her speed in this relay is a plus for her. I truly love the rest of the runners abilities as well and U.S. chances in this event and again that world record will be threaten

    Leave a comment:


  • TrainerPhil
    replied
    Originally posted by TrackDaddy
    When I said a week or so ago that the US women CAN WIN guruoftrack and few others balked based on open 100m times.

    I was told that the US women don't have the foospeed to compete with JA.

    Jokers quiet now.
    Not quiet at all. They still don't have the footspeed to win IMO. I was thoroughly impressed with their recent time and it certainly shows me that USA will not lay down. In fact if they get the stick around they could very well go under the curent world record. I just can't see Lee running with Kerron on that 3rd leg and I can't see Jeter running with VCB on the anchor. I think SAF+Simpson/Brooks/Facey and Lauryn+Felix is a wash.......

    Leave a comment:


  • lexvid
    replied
    This thread was quite entertaining until the name calling became too personal. I was enjoying the banter early on by Blaze, Speed, Blur and others until someone couldn't handle it (Blur).... Oh well off to another thread.

    PS. I think the race will close if the Amercans can produce great hand-offs and the Jamaicans don't run out of their zones. I expect a fast time assuming they observe rule 101 and don't drop the baton.

    prediction:

    1st 41.24 JAM
    2nd 41.39 USA

    Leave a comment:

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