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  • How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years?...

    I imagine a genetic freak running the distance
    in 8"94 for the New Chinese Empire...
    (Is that a wise utopia?...)

  • #2
    Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

    Only if they immigrated there from elsewhere.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

      shouldn't it be how low?

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      • #4
        Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

        Yes, I'm sorry, this should be "How low..."
        I always think in French...

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        • #5
          Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

          This is a web-page worth reading:

          http://desert.jsd.claremont.edu/~newt/t ... imate.html

          And one which I'd tend to agree with. No matter how much training facilities and methods progress, I just can't imagine seeing a sub-9.00 100m run (or at least not in the next 100 years... that's if I live to 119!)

          It's taken 70-80 years to take 0.7-0.8 off the WR. I know that this averages out as a tenth per decade, but if you look at the progression (especially over the past 20-30 years) and WR breaking has already started to plateau.

          For example, between 1958 and 1968, the WR went from 10.32 to 9.95!!! If we compare that decade to the 1992-2002 period, the record has only gone from 9.86 to 9.78. Now, there are many reasons as to why the progressional WR-breaking is slowing down, but I feel a major factor is maybe the coaches are getting close to knowing pretty much all there is to know about coaching athletics (a stark contrast to how much/little athletics coaches in general knew back in the 50's and 60's).

          I very much doubt (with technology at it's current state) that we'll see many big jumps in progression over the next hundred years. If it follows the same progress as the last decade (0.08 per decade), then a sub-9.00 is possible, but remember the progression is slowing down, and so it's unlikely that there'll be a regular 0.08 progression each decade.

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          • #6
            Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

            >
            I imagine a genetic freak running the distance
            in 8"94 for the New
            >Chinese Empire...
            (Is that a wise utopia?...)


            Well the World Record 100 years ago (1904) was 10.8s (hand-timed) which was run by approximately 8 men!
            So from 1904-2004 (currently) the record has dropped form 10.8s to 9.78s (1.02s). So if we humans are to improve by the same amount (which is unlikely because it is proven that we are close to reaching our limits) the world record in 2104 should be 8.76s (8.8s rounded to 1 decimal place)
            To run 8.76s for the 100m sprint is obscene!

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            • #7
              Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

              I also believe that genetics will be the key of
              the next 100m revolution.
              And consequently, unimaginable new borders will
              be crossed, making the spendid sprinters from
              nowadays look like primitive pieces of museum.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                >To run 8.76s for the 100m sprint is obscene!


                I know! It'd be like having an imaginary runner being 11m+ ahead of Monty in his WR run!!!!

                Looking at the progression each decade over the past 100 years, shows that athletes are definitely closing in on the 'ultimate' WR...

                1904 - 1914: 0.20 progression
                1914 - 1924: 0.20
                1924 - 1934: 0.10
                1934 - 1944: 0.10
                1944 - 1954: 0.00
                1954 - 1964: 0.20
                1964 - 1974: 0.05
                1974 - 1984: 0.02
                1984 - 1994: 0.08
                1994 - 2004: 0.07

                For the past ~40 years (from the inclusion of electric timing), athletes have reached a stage whereby they are just chipping away a few hundredths here and there each time the WR is broken. Before electronic timing was used, then each WR-breaking performances were obviously by 0.10, but these stats have to be taken with a pinch of salt, because we all know how accurate hand-timing can be!!

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                • #9
                  Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                  ..

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                    As you said 79 in you opening statement, Utopia. Speed has limits. Light is very fast, the sound is roughly 1000X slower, the moving human has that limit too, plus it is from the zero speed start. I think the limit could be calculated (I am far from that kind of math). My guess is that the human will not run faster than 9.5 sec. There may be a little more leeway still in the women's records, but even that I don't think can go beyond 10 sec. To be honest, I think that I am already too generous.
                    "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
                    by Thomas Henry Huxley

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                      Pego,
                      Speed has no limits if you believe that if
                      someone ran 9"78, another one can set a 9"77,
                      and if anyone can run a 9"77, sooner or later
                      someone will be able to set a 9"76...
                      So, trying to imagine limits, is to my opinion
                      like trying to square the circle.
                      The real hidden subject would be rather to
                      imagine how, someday a "human being" will be
                      capable of running a 9" or why not a 5" 100m...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                        The human body can only handle a certain amount of stress placed on it. If you sent your normal 12 sec 100m runner(just say you could)down a track at 9.78s/ 100m, most probably they would pull everything and shatter their femur etc. Tim Montgomery's body would not be able to handle 9.5s in MHO unless he was drugged seriously. Sub 9 would therefore only come by genetic modification at birth. I have no doubt man could run sub 9, but only if the skeletal and muscular structure could handle the massive forces involved. Someone did say that Ben Johnson would of pulled every muscle in is body at Seoul while running 9.79 unless he was drugged up. So thats the limiting factor I believe.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                          79, your argument reminds me of the story (I forgot the origin), where a farmer carries a calf on his shoulders up the hill every morning. He does it daily, so eventually he is seen carrying a growm bull. You know it is a logical impossibility. It is possible to calculate the limits. These running records do have to come to a stop eventually, just like the weight-lifting limits.
                          BTW, I made a huge blunder in my post. The speed of sound is not 1/1000th of the speed of light, but 1/10,000,000th.
                          "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
                          by Thomas Henry Huxley

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                            Y'all are forgeting the brave new world of genetic engineering that we are just about to enter. The feats of genenged humans will boggle our minds and take feats of strength, speed and endurance off our charts.

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                            • #15
                              Re: How high do you imagine the 100m WR within 100 years

                              >Y'all are forgeting the brave new world of genetic engineering that we are just about to enter. The feats of genenged humans will boggle our minds and take feats of strength, speed and endurance off our charts.

                              Amen Tafnut, and it's going to happen. However it will take a while to get right, but when they do find ways around genetic engineerings inevitable shortcomings, then athletic feats impossible to imagine now will take place. Be very afraid...

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