Will any USA women medal in any event 800 or over??

[jpaule]

There are some that have great chance but no givens.

[lovetorun]

I wouldn't be surprised if there were no medals...but, on the other hand I wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple...with Barringer in the steeple the most likely IMO.

[huntinwr]

Will any USA women in any event over 800m

I think we have an excellent chance in both the 800 & 1500. We have the best depth ever in the 1,500 with Wurth-Thomas, Rowbury and Willard. One of them could definitely win a medal. Vessey, although inexperienced, has the #2 time in the 800. 5000 and 10,000 were not as strong, although if Flanagan ran like she did last year she could be in there.

In the marathon, Goucher can definitely medal on a good day.

[jpaule]

US has great talent in 800, 1500, 10K, Marathon, and SC but it is still going to be tough to get a medal.

[jeremyp]

US has great talent in every 800, 1500, 10K, Marathon, and SC but it is still going to be tough to get a medal.

Best crop by depth yet! I think we'll get a couple of medals. Best bets: Barringer, Goucher, with Vessey a long shot, if she makes the final, and stays with the pace, and doesn't get blocked.

[dj]

Looking at each event by itself, I don't think you can predict a U.S. medal in any one of them.

On the other hand, we're close enough in so many events and so many things can happen that I think it's reasonable to project one medal from among all these events.

[mump boy]

i think you'll get one i don't know which one but there are too many chances for you not to. your distance women are on a roll and will deffo go home with something to show for all the hard work

[tandfman]

I agree with dj and mump boy.

[Megas15]

I think for the women...Maggie Vessey may make the podium in the 800m

[Omega4ul]

How do you say NO in German?
NO

[SantaCruz]

How do you say NO in German?

Nein. (pronounced like the number nine).

[Alan Shank]

Looking at each event by itself, I don't think you can predict a U.S. medal in any one of them.

On the other hand, we're close enough in so many events and so many things can happen that I think it's reasonable to project one medal from among all these events.

Another probability lesson, folks. Although the probability of ALL independent events occurring is the PRODUCT of all their individual probability, and hence smaller than any one of them (assuming they are less than 1.0, of course), the probability of ONE OR MORE of a series of independent events occurring is the complement (difference from 1.0) of the probability of them ALL NOT OCCURRING.

So, suppose we are talking about the 800, 1500 and St., and we posit that, in each event, the probability is .2 (odds of 4-1 against) of the US (or any other country) winning a medal.

The probability of the US medalling in ALL THREE is:

.2 * .2 *.2 = .008, or odds of 124-1 against.

The probability of the US medalling in ONE or MORE is:

((.8 * .8 * .8) * -1) + 1.0 = .488

The probability of the US NOT medalling in all three is .8^3 = .512, whose complement is .488.

This, presumably, is the basis for dj's statement.

If we add a couple more events, the probability will go up. Of course, no one really knows any of the individual probabilities, so this is really just pointless (but fun) speculation.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

[gh]

Thank you Eldrick junior.

the T&FN formchart will show Goucher (thanks to Mikitenko's withdrawal) as the only American woman charted for a medal.