No Bolts Barred: the "how fast can he go?" thread

[JRM]

Someone on the 200m thread mentioned that there should be a separate thread on which to post predictions for the future of Usain Bolt. Considering that thread is also destined to be locked/removed, I'll start one here.

Will we see 9.4x? Will we see 18.9x? What about the 400m? This man can jog 20.0 -- can he put together back-to-back 21s and bring it home?

Also, how does it change your perspective of the events, knowing that when Bolt hangs up his spikes, the WRs will likely remain for a generation (as with the women's sprints)? Does it take away from the event to know a WR is a virtual impossibility?

Your thoughts?

[RamGoat]

As history goes on.. humans get stronger and faster.

Bolt is like 50 years ahead of his time. The person to break his record is soon to be developed in the nut sacks of some Jamaican 4 year old right now. You can count on it.

[SQUACKEE]

9.52, 18.99 and if he wants it bad enough 41.9.

[Per Andersen]

Re: No Bolts Barred: the "how fast can he go?" thr

Also, how does it change your perspective of the events, knowing that when Bolt hangs up his spikes, the WRs will likely remain for a generation (as with the women's sprints)? Does it take away from the event to know a WR is a virtual impossibility?

Your thoughts?

Sure the perspective changes. A new generation of sprinters will know that a 19.7 or 19,8 is not a terrific 200 time. The landscape has shifted with Bolt and the mindset of future athletes will change because of it.
Of course his records might last a very long time but our ideas of what is possible in the sprints have changed.

[3]

In theory Mr. Bolt can run 9"39s, based on the following assumptions:

* 0"02s for a perfect reaction time
* 0"06s for a better start and drive phase, like Beijing
* 0"05s for a maximum, positive wind
* 0"06s for altitude

Total savings: 0"19s, or a cumulative total of * 9"39s * before wind and altitude adjustments run their course. Most guys on my block just want to know how fast the clock stops. Here's one answer.

[Marlow]

9.52, 18.99 and if he wants it bad enough 41.9.

I'll say
9.49
18.99

That would have been totally ridiculous 3 years ago, but now? Who knows.

[TrackDaddy]

As history goes on.. humans get stronger and faster.

Bolt is like 50 years ahead of his time. The person to break his record is soon to be developed in the nut sacks of some Jamaican 4 year old right now. You can count on it.

Imma go with 2,500,000 years if you dont mind.

I think he may run 7.5 and 14.2 if he stays healthy.

I mean if he continues to improve at the same rate he has over the last 18 months.

[eldrick]

the last 40m rarely lies

few, if any improve on it, ever, if initial 60m is poorer ( his is, fractionally )

he went 3.27 with slight wind

call it 3.27 basic anyways ->

9.54 , 19.08

basic

[expat]

Since I do not believe that Bolt will always run into headwinds ... how would you adjust 9.54/19.08 to reflect a maximum legal tailwind and maximum altitude? A nice day in Zurich, let us say ...

[eldrick]

have to punch them into jrm's calc

remembering his usual conversions, max wind + 0.01s for 100 & double that for 200 ( the altitude factor of ~ 300m )

9.43 / 18.96

( but put them into his calc )

[ATK]

I don't see why people keep predicting bolt can run the 400m record. That's a whole different ball game. If he were to go out in 21, he would probably end up going home in about 23 or so. Hes just not strong enough for that race. If he concentrated solely on the race for the next 2 or 3 years, possibly he would be in contention for the record, but he would have to be extremely focused on it. Just cause of how one looks in the 200 doesn't determine how they would run double the distance.

And bolt can probably do 19.10 in the 200 by next year with 0.0 wind.

[MDelano]

Training for the 400m will make him lose a bit of 100m form. Can't see why he would give up his lucrative no.1 spot in the premier event just to have a chance (no certainty) at becoming no.1 at 400m.

[Stafanitus]

In my humble opinion, you "just" need someone to struggle Bolt to go sub 19. I think the curve was a little too fast (just by impression) cause he only wanted to break the record. With the next michael johnson behind him and a real duell he will go to break 19.

On 100 we have this situation. I was even more impressed by tyson gay, cause i never suggested him to go for (still not optimum) 9,71. so with gay and powell in 9,6x shape there are some real oponents. you just need a poor race to loose. Sad that powell maybe will never get over his final complex. But there are two more guys in fantastic speed. now we have to wait 2 years for the next big one. But view from here im not surpried if it is won by 9,49-9,54.

greetings.