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Medal count vs. projections

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    Moura
    Senior Member

  • Moura
    replied
    Kenya also did well and the wins in 5K/10K might be delicious.

    My Portugal was a little disapointing, altough we know that Naide and Silva were not at their best due to recent injuries ... we expected better from them.
    Good surprise come from 20KmW and mainly marathon both sex.

    Regarding USA versus Russia, after Beijing which pointed to a very close race, USA beat clearly Russia and is now so strong in female as Russia. US still face their "ghosts" in 4*100m relays and 100mh but overall things seems good for USA at short term altough BOLT and Jamaica sprinters should get majority of gold medals in sprint events in this OG cycle. Russia had big failures which I don´t know if they are circumstancial or predicting something not good for Russia. It seems me clear that we will not see countries with 30 or more medals. Carabean countries are "atacking" US in their strong events, we hace more countries to have success in field events on which mainly in female Russia dominated it. I won´t be surprised at all if in a next major Jamaica or Kenya will be the country with more golds.

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  • Pego
    Senior Member

  • Pego
    replied
    Originally posted by Powell
    Originally posted by Pego
    Tokyo was an outlier, as half of the medals was earned by the great sprint/LJ combo.
    But Polish T&F was very strong in that period. We also won 7 medals in Rome. And 7 in Moscow as well - yes, there was the boycott, but I honestly think all of the Polish medalists would have made the podium anyway had everyone been there.
    True.

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  • Powell
    Senior Member

  • Powell
    replied
    Originally posted by Pego
    Tokyo was an outlier, as half of the medals was earned by the great sprint/LJ combo.
    But Polish T&F was very strong in that period. We also won 7 medals in Rome. And 7 in Moscow as well - yes, there was the boycott, but I honestly think all of the Polish medalists would have made the podium anyway had everyone been there.

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  • Pego
    Senior Member

  • Pego
    replied
    Originally posted by Powell
    Former Soviet Union as a whole was definitely a huge disappointment, with a poor showing by the Russians (apart from the walks, they won just one gold!) and no medals at all for Ukraine and Belarus (they did the worst of all.

    Western Europe as a whole did poorly as well. If you exclude Germany and the UK, the other countries put together got just 9 medals - that's just 1 more than Poland alone!

    Poland is probably the biggest surprise in the medal count. We never won more than 4 medals at a WCh before, and the only global championship in history with 8 medals was Tokyo 1964 :shock:
    No doubt. Tokyo was an outlier, as half of the medals was earned by the great sprint/LJ combo.

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  • Powell
    Senior Member

  • Powell
    replied
    Former Soviet Union as a whole was definitely a huge disappointment, with a poor showing by the Russians (apart from the walks, they won just one gold!) and no medals at all for Ukraine and Belarus (they did the worst of all.

    Western Europe as a whole did poorly as well. If you exclude Germany and the UK, the other countries put together got just 9 medals - that's just 1 more than Poland alone!

    Poland is probably the biggest surprise in the medal count. We never won more than 4 medals at a WCh before, and the only global championship in history with 8 medals was Tokyo 1964 :shock:

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  • AS
    Senior Member

  • AS
    replied
    Originally posted by Powell
    Originally posted by Vault-emort
    3, China ???
    What makes you say that? They won their highest number of medals since the 1996 OG.
    And had a poor "placings" score at the home-town Games last year:

    http://mb.trackandfieldnews.com/discuss ... hp?t=37174

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  • Powell
    Senior Member

  • Powell
    replied
    Originally posted by Vault-emort
    3, China ???
    What makes you say that? They won their highest number of medals since the 1996 OG.

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  • Slowrunner
    Senior Member

  • Slowrunner
    replied
    Ukraine shut out also (four 4ths), Italy, Belarus & Morocco.

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  • rudawal
    replied
    Originally posted by tammi6
    I agree with you rudawal, the predictions by Universal Sports and TF was skewed towards the Americans.
    Universal pathetically predicted Tyson to beat Usain in the 200m, don't know what they were thinking.
    Jamaica demolished their predictions with Melaine demolishing Demus
    Bridgette and Delo surprising the Americans, not even one American receiving a medal.Jamaica winning the 4X100m women, though Americans had the misfortune of Muna's injury.

    But all in all they are predictions based on what the athlete season progression. So predictions may not predicate actual.
    I seem to recall that the first set of predictions had a US sweep of the w100h. I couldn't understand how women who were not appearing in any known meets could figure so prominently on a "formchart".

    By the way - Sweden got no medals at all!

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  • Vault-emort
    Senior Member

  • Vault-emort
    replied
    3, China ???

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  • AS
    Senior Member

  • AS
    replied
    I suspect there are other countries licking their wounds a little more than US.

    1. Russia
    2. Ethopia (serious failures on Women's side)

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  • dukehjsteve
    Senior Member

  • dukehjsteve
    replied
    Although USA fell down a bit vis a vis predictions, imho virtually all US losses were valiant ones. A much better overall effort than last year in China.

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  • tammi6
    replied
    I agree with you rudawal, the predictions by Universal Sports and TF was skewed towards the Americans.
    Universal pathetically predicted Tyson to beat Usain in the 200m, don't know what they were thinking.
    Jamaica demolished their predictions with Melaine demolishing Demus
    Bridgette and Delo surprising the Americans, not even one American receiving a medal.
    Jamaica winning the 4X100m women, though Americans had the misfortune of Muna's injury.

    But all in all they are predictions based on what the athlete season progression. So predictions may not predicate actual.

    Leave a comment:


  • rudawal
    replied
    Where USATF is concerned, the 30 was perhaps acceptable as a goal. That's their thing. However, T&FN predictions should be based on objective reality, not aspirations. Am I the only poster who felt all along that T&FN's predictions had a distinctly American bias?

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  • gh
    Administrator

  • gh
    replied
    Originally posted by jpaule
    Originally posted by gh
    We're using the same kind of math as USATF's Project 30: Hardee got 10 medals over last two days, the relays should be good for at least 8......
    Relays should be good for 16 medals (4 in each race).
    And this year's optimism award goes to.....

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