Who thought 4:03.74 would win?

[rgjp]

That's my point. Even though a handful of the finalists have not YET broken 2 for 800m, doesn't mean they aren't capable. More than likely, in all of these cases, they simply haven't put forth the effort to tackle that event in earnest!

[tandfman]

Burka - 2:07 / 8:25 (one of the favorites with a 2:07 800 PR???)

She was 17 at the time she ran that 2:07. She hasn't run an 800 in competition in more than 5 years. That PR means nothing.

[rgjp]

Many people speculated that a sub 2 800 and steeplechase background would make Willard a favorite in Berlin.

It didn't happen. Just goes to show you that ANYTHING can happen at this level. Speculation aside, the results in Berlin prove my point.

ALL of these women are world class and capable of great things. They all have superior speed and they all have great strength. Perhaps they haven't focused and/or competed much at the shorter or longer distances so the times listed for their best performances at those distances aren't indicative of what they can do. But trust me, they would not be in the World Finals if they didn't have world class speed and strength.

By the way - below are the best marks for the finalists at 800 / 3000 in case you're interested.

Burka - 2:07 / 8:25 (one of the favorites with a 2:07 800 PR???)
Jamal - 1:57 / 8:28
Dobriskey - 2:02 / 8:47
Rowbury - 2:00 / 8:55
Fermandez - 2:00 / 8:46
Wurth - 1:59 / 8:54
Willard - 1:58 / 8:58
Chojecka - 1:59 / 8:31
Evdokimova - 1:58 / no 3k time noted (has run 3:57)
Gezahegne - no 800 time / 9:19
Rodriguez - 2:01 / 8:35
Selsouli - no 800 time / 8:29 (has run 4:00)

[eldrick]

I suspect that all of the women in that field are capable of sub 2:00 800's and I also suspect that they have a good strength background. Otherwise, they wouldn't be amongst the top 12 in the world toeing the line

that's a big stretch

jamal & willard are 1'57 & 1'58, but few of the others have <2'00pbs

obviously they may not race it much, but out of 12, i'd suspect not more than 5 or 6 are capable of <2'00 if they raced 800s all year

rough rule of thumb is 800 time is 0.5 of their 1500pb

you'd have to see how many have gone <4'00 & those are your likely candidates for <2'00 for those who haven't done it

Willard's performances to date really aren't that "special" with regard to her speed or strength background. Over racing, however, would definitely have an impact on how an athlete handles the rounds at worlds.

1'58 is damn special for a 3ksc gal !!!

it's also damn special for any elite 1500 gal in this day & age

[jeremyp]

Re: Who thought 4:03.74 would win?

Aside from the debaucle of a top runner being pushed and falling to the track in the stretch run, I thought the women's 1500m in Berlin was a bit surprising and frankly disappointing.....

Why (to use Marlow's phrasing) "marks snobs" are frequently disappointed.

Learn to appreciate head-to-head racing for what it is, ignoring the clock, and I think your enjoyment of the sport will be enhanced. (Took me years to come to grips with that concept, but ever since I did, my appreciation for the sport has increased manifold.)

Got to agree gh. Often I don't even know what the time was until I check back later. The last laps of these races are a thing of complexity, fever pitch excitement, high anxiety. I spend hours afterwards picking apart the races on Tivo. I used to be a stat freak, but now I just love to watch the strategy unfold.

[rasb]

Men and women's championships races from 1500 on up are usually the same, you can do something else more interesting llike taking the trash out until the last lap.

Wow ! What an ignorant attitude....please allow me to try and enlighten you.
In the distance events, there is this variable called "tactics". This does not apply in the other track/field events, so if that is your background, you can be excused for not understanding. Each athlete, who is good enough, and in some cases lucky enough, to make the Final, is trying to work out their strategy for finishing as highly as possible in the Final. How that plays out is a complex set of situations, that every athlete in the event is doing their best to react to. And the final results, regardless of time and place, are what each athlete was able to bring to the table on that day. If that is somehow less interesting to you than taking out the trash, well, it takes all kinds to make the world.

[rgjp]

I suspect that all of the women in that field are capable of sub 2:00 800's and I also suspect that they have a good strength background. Otherwise, they wouldn't be amongst the top 12 in the world toeing the line.

Willard's performances to date really aren't that "special" with regard to her speed or strength background. Over racing, however, would definitely have an impact on how an athlete handles the rounds at worlds.

[lovetorun]

Just to clarify...I agree with gh and all the others who chimed in that the competition, the race itself, regardless of time, is the most interesting aspect of the race. I think what I was really expressing (and obviously didn't do it very well) is that I thought Anna Willard would have placed high and been more competitive in the race, such as it was. She has the 800m speed, and presumably the steeple strength...so the race, in my view ,was made perfect for her success...and I surmised that her long season fatigue may have been the main reason she wasn't a factor in the race.

[jpaule]

Men and women's championships races from 1500 on up are usually the same, you can do something else more interesting llike taking the trash out until the last lap.

[Alan Shank]

I thought the W 5000 was a disappointing race, not because they barely broke 15, but because nobody showed an iota of initiative. As each lap went by, I thought somebody would do something to change the pace, as Abeylegesse probably would have done, had she been in the race, but everyone just waited for the last lap. In 2007, the race was similar, and Defar won easily, but Defar is not the 2007 version, as we saw in the 10K. Still, it looked like her race with 200 to go, but, as with Linet Masai in the 10K, Cheruyiot has been working on her finishing speed.

BTW, I rarely make predictions, but before the W 1500 final I told Peter Rule that there would be at least one Spanish medal, as I was impressed with both Rodriguez and Fernandez in the rounds, and the Spanish runners have a way of coming right for the majors and finishing well. I was right for about 1/2 hour, until the DQ came up. Of course, the DQ was correct, but I wonder where she would have finished had she waited for a gap to open up instead of creating one out of Burka.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

[DJ_Expanium]

I always love these distance finals. In my opinion they are far better than faster races with rabbits. They are tactical and even if they are a bit slower, the drama and finishes are far more entertaining!!!!!

Every race for men & women in the WC was fantastic to watch 1,500; 5,000; 10,000. I would far rather watch races like that when you have no idea what is going to happen until the last lap.

It is the racing that should be fun, not looking at the clock wondering if what I saw was worthy enough to get excited from a time standpoint.

I agree with you there along with the women's 3000m SC and how it unfolded in the 150m. The 1500, I thought that Wurth-Thomas was going to push the pace from last 600-700m but she got pushed to the back. That would have spread it out more and may have prevented the elbow incident as well.

[STL_Runner]

Re: Who thought 4:03.74 would win?

Why (to use Marlow's phrasing) "marks snobs" are frequently disappointed.

They must have been awfully disappointed with the 10K finish in Sydney. Geb finished almost a minute behind his PR!

[odelltrclan]

We have to hope that people get out of these statistical analyses in order to enjoy races or our sport will die. What will happen when Bolt is gone and his marks are out of touch?

I loved the final. I always love these distance finals. In my opinion they are far better than faster races with rabbits. They are tactical and even if they are a bit slower, the drama and finishes are far more entertaining!!!!!

Every race for men & women in the WC was fantastic to watch 1,500; 5,000; 10,000. I would far rather watch races like that when you have no idea what is going to happen until the last lap.

It is the racing that should be fun, not looking at the clock wondering if what I saw was worthy enough to get excited from a time standpoint.

[rasb]

Well said, gh. I am always astounded when some choose to measure a race, particularly a mid. or distance race, by the finishing times. Leading in these situations, without a rabbit of course, is a risk. And leading hard, unless you are clearly the superior runner in the field is a bigger risk. Thus it becomes tactics "uber alles". Personally, I find this style of racing much more interesting that just another rabbited race on the circuit.

[gh]

Re: Who thought 4:03.74 would win?

Aside from the debaucle of a top runner being pushed and falling to the track in the stretch run, I thought the women's 1500m in Berlin was a bit surprising and frankly disappointing.....

Why (to use Marlow's phrasing) "marks snobs" are frequently disappointed.

Learn to appreciate head-to-head racing for what it is, ignoring the clock, and I think your enjoyment of the sport will be enhanced. (Took me years to come to grips with that concept, but ever since I did, my appreciation for the sport has increased manifold.)