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I've had a theory that's been buzzing around between my ears for a little while now. Is it possible during the even years that are not Olympic years that we'll see a marked uptick in fast performances?
I've not taken a look historically at 2006 and 2002 (I have a vague recollection of 2006 being a pretty exciting year, but...vague recollection means nothing against some of the mighty numerical forces that preside over this board. Meaning, eldrick
) but here are my baseless presumptions.
1) There's no need to have a very sharp peak for one race that athletes may or may not qualify for. By allowing athletes to have a peak performance any time during the summer, there's no emphasis on not being blown out by Worlds / the Olympics and there is no emphasis on being all that ready at the national championship meets.
2) Pent-up fitness from 2007, 2008, and 2009 from athletes who flubbed out of championships, bagged it after having a poor showing at those meets, or trained specifically for those meets might finally show. It's very rare that we'll see peak performances at championship meets (I'm talking specifically mid-distance and distance here) just because doing so is almost always suicidal.
3) Really reaching on this one, but it might be easier to get into large meets on non-championship years...and the quality of the competition definitely will be better. Why not race all the time? Why not rake in the $$? These off-years also seem to be when people try changing up training and events...they've got two years to the next championship meet from this point, and 3 till the next Olympics. If you're going to do something drastic, there's no better time than now!
Now I'm going to go actually look at numbers and be embarassed at how badly they correlate to my broad, baseless generalizations.
edit: I forgot to mention - we do, of course, have to take into account that new athletes - in every sort of event - have been discovered and may be entirely game changing for an event. the 800m, for example, has seen a rash of 1:42-esque times in the past two years and I recall nothing of the sort in 2006. I guess it will be more telling to see what those 1:42 performers run in this coming year! (and, by extrapolation, all other extraordinary performers in other events)
I've not taken a look historically at 2006 and 2002 (I have a vague recollection of 2006 being a pretty exciting year, but...vague recollection means nothing against some of the mighty numerical forces that preside over this board. Meaning, eldrick
) but here are my baseless presumptions.1) There's no need to have a very sharp peak for one race that athletes may or may not qualify for. By allowing athletes to have a peak performance any time during the summer, there's no emphasis on not being blown out by Worlds / the Olympics and there is no emphasis on being all that ready at the national championship meets.
2) Pent-up fitness from 2007, 2008, and 2009 from athletes who flubbed out of championships, bagged it after having a poor showing at those meets, or trained specifically for those meets might finally show. It's very rare that we'll see peak performances at championship meets (I'm talking specifically mid-distance and distance here) just because doing so is almost always suicidal.
3) Really reaching on this one, but it might be easier to get into large meets on non-championship years...and the quality of the competition definitely will be better. Why not race all the time? Why not rake in the $$? These off-years also seem to be when people try changing up training and events...they've got two years to the next championship meet from this point, and 3 till the next Olympics. If you're going to do something drastic, there's no better time than now!
Now I'm going to go actually look at numbers and be embarassed at how badly they correlate to my broad, baseless generalizations.
edit: I forgot to mention - we do, of course, have to take into account that new athletes - in every sort of event - have been discovered and may be entirely game changing for an event. the 800m, for example, has seen a rash of 1:42-esque times in the past two years and I recall nothing of the sort in 2006. I guess it will be more telling to see what those 1:42 performers run in this coming year! (and, by extrapolation, all other extraordinary performers in other events)
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