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  • #46
    I'd put them at 54/55 tbh as long as you're not completely sinking into lactic acid you can usually pull off a good sprint finish and the fast finishes at the end of a tactical 5k usually aren't too much slower than their actual potential over the distance.

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    • #47
      Originally posted by jazzcyclist
      Originally posted by Ned Ryerson
      Defar and Dibaba are worth about 55sec each.
      I don't think they're that slow.
      They surely are. They're best ever 400m finish was the 56-sec last 400m in Berlin, in a race that finished about a minute outside their capabilities. With the running start, that 56-sec last lap is worth about 57 in an open race, and then take off about two seconds for the 11.5 moderately paced laps they ran leading up to the bell.

      If they had much more fast twitch fiber, they would be able to run 14:10 or approach the 10000m world record.

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      • #48
        [quote=Ned Ryerson]
        Originally posted by jazzcyclist
        Originally posted by "Ned Ryerson":3i35u5rq
        Defar and Dibaba are worth about 55sec each.
        I don't think they're that slow.
        They surely are. They're best ever 400m finish was the 56-sec last 400m in Berlin, in a race that finished about a minute outside their capabilities. With the running start, that 56-sec last lap is worth about 57 in an open race, and then take off about two seconds for the 11.5 moderately paced laps they ran leading up to the bell.

        If they had much more fast twitch fiber, they would be able to run 14:10 or approach the 10000m world record.[/quote:3i35u5rq]
        I think you have to take off more than two seconds and that's where we disagree. Hicham El Guerrouj is reported to have 47s speed, but I've never heard of him closing out a race in under 51 seconds. When he won the 5000 gold in Athens, he closed out in 52.6.

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        • #49
          [quote=jazzcyclist]
          Originally posted by Ned Ryerson
          Originally posted by jazzcyclist
          Originally posted by "Ned Ryerson":3na90gl7
          Defar and Dibaba are worth about 55sec each.
          I don't think they're that slow.
          They surely are. They're best ever 400m finish was the 56-sec last 400m in Berlin, in a race that finished about a minute outside their capabilities. With the running start, that 56-sec last lap is worth about 57 in an open race, and then take off about two seconds for the 11.5 moderately paced laps they ran leading up to the bell.

          If they had much more fast twitch fiber, they would be able to run 14:10 or approach the 10000m world record.
          I think you have to take off more than two seconds and that's where we disagree. Hicham El Guerrouj is reported to have 47s speed, but I've never heard of him closing out a race in under 51 seconds. When he won the 5000 gold in Athens, he closed out in 52.6.[/quote:3na90gl7]

          Of course. El Guerrouj is more of a fast twitch runner than Dibaba or Defar and his stamina isn't as good as theirs, so he isn't able to run as close to his maximum 400m speed at the end of the race as are Defar, Dibaba and Bekele.

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Ned Ryerson
            Of course. El Guerrouj is more of a fast twitch runner than Dibaba or Defar and his stamina isn't as good as theirs, so he isn't able to run as close to his maximum 400m speed at the end of the race as are Defar, Dibaba and Bekele.
            Is that just a hunch, or do you have some facts on which to base this theory?

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            • #51
              It's based on what is known about fast and slow twitch fiber, as well as an extrapolation based on PBs. Check out the Hungarian Tables.

              El Guerrouj
              3:26.00 1930
              7:23.09 1910
              12:50.24 1907

              Just based on the fact that, as a human in the modern era, he can't hold world records from 1500m to 10000m, his peak ability is in the middle distances, and it goes down as the distance increases. I think it's reasonable to assume that El Guerrouj could have run between 26:45 and 27:00 for 10000m, which is obviousl 30-45sec slower than Bekele, despite the fact that Bekele is much slower than El Guerrouj at 1500m. So while El Guerrouj has better basic speed, Bekele's has much better stamina.

              El Guerrouj is a guy with 47-something 400m ability and 12:50 5000m stamina resulting in a 3:26 1500m runner. Bekele is probably a 49.9 runner, but with 26:17 endurance, he's able to run 3:32 and likely a bit faster. If Bekele were really faster in the 400m, you would likely see him approaching the 1500m world record.

              Bekele, Defar, Dibaba and Gebreselassie are all very high on the endurance end of the scale with modest footspeed. It's their unrivaled stamina and endurance that allows them to kick at a high percentage of their maximum footspeed. If you're a guy running close to the world record for 1500m, there's no way you're going to come close to the 10000m WR.

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              • #52
                Originally posted by tm71
                let me know when the have a race with the zebra and shawn crawford again. or how about the tortoise and the hare ?
                The origins of the classic "Sesame Street News Flash" segments was Kermit the Frog's coverage of the tortoise v. hare race. He did pre-race interviews at the start, then high-tailed it to the finish to see who won...and thus was declared the winner.

                If this race actually happens, I'm taking the day off work and hosting a pre-race tailgate party. I'll make a Bolt v. Bekele "advent" calendar and count down the days. I'll fly to Vegas just to wager everything I own. I'll go berserk.

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                • #53
                  I agree that Bekele probably can't match El G's 47s speed, but that doesn't mean he can't run 48 or 49. And did you know that Gebrselassie was a world 1500 indoor champion?

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by jazzcyclist
                    I agree that Bekele probably can't match El G's 47s speed, but that doesn't mean he can't run 48 or 49. And did you know that Gebrselassie was a world 1500 indoor champion?
                    Of course, Maebashi 1999. Geb's the second fastest 1500m runner indoors in history. And he'd be lucky to break 50 flat in the 400m.

                    How would you suppose that Bekele has the same 400m speed as Steve Scott, while also possessing vastly superior endurance, and yet he'd be neck and neck with Scott in a 1500m?

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Ned Ryerson
                      Originally posted by jazzcyclist
                      I agree that Bekele probably can't match El G's 47s speed, but that doesn't mean he can't run 48 or 49. And did you know that Gebrselassie was a world 1500 indoor champion?
                      Of course, Maebashi 1999. Geb's the second fastest 1500m runner indoors in history. And he'd be lucky to break 50 flat in the 400m.

                      How would you suppose that Bekele has the same 400m speed as Steve Scott, while also possessing vastly superior endurance, and yet he'd be neck and neck with Scott in a 1500m?
                      With all due respect to Scott, Bekele is a better athlete than him. Athletes of his caliber have greater range than mear mortals. Usain Bolt is superior to Jeremy Wariner in 100 and 200, but that doesn't mean he can't also match him the 400. Said Aouita had range from the 800 to the 5000. If El G's 47s speed doesn't prevent him from running 12:50, why do you assume that Bekele's 12:37 speed prevents him from running 48s? How can the WR holder in the marathon, and the man with the greatest endurance of all times using your logic, have also been a world champ at the 1500? As for the stats you've provided on El G, I do think that it's somewhat disingenuous, since there is no doubt that he ran many more 1500's in his career than 3000's and 5000's. And of the 3000's and 5000's, how many were rabbited races like the many rabbited 1500's that he ran? And even if there was some way to prove that his 5000 ability was less than his 1500 ability, it's not by much, so why split hairs?

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                      • #56
                        There's a huge difference between winning a world title in a discipline (especially indoors) and breaking a world record in this era. Tamsyn Lewis is the World Indoor Champion in the 800m, so does that mean she's of similar calibre as Jelimo and Jepkosgei?


                        And there's a huge difference between 12:50 and 12:37, and even more between 12:58 and 12:37. You didn't see Said Aouita and his 1:43.86 PB run sub12:40 or sub26:30.

                        It's just like you can't expect Michael Johnson, with 43.1 400m speed to be superior or even on par with the best 800m and 1500m runners in the world because of all the fast twitch fibers he has running throughout his body.

                        Geb did what he did and does what he does because he's a 49.9/3:31/26:22 runner. And he wasn't racing El Guerrouj. Watch when he raced El Guerrouj over 1500m in Stuttgart in 1997. El Guerrouj dropped the hammer on him and got the world record which still stands today.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Ned Ryerson
                          Geb did what he did and does what he does because he's a 49.9/3:31/26:22 runner.
                          Where did you get this 49.9 figure from? Is that speculation and conjecture?

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                          • #58
                            Pretty sure it was a time trial.

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by pachip
                              I heard that Usain ran once 800 in HS, and his PB is 1.53.xx if my memory don't fail(said by glen Mills)

                              Now, i assume he could improve to 1.49,xx
                              After the 200m (Brussels09) he said in an interview with belgian tv that his best was 2.06/2.07for 800m.

                              For a race against Bekele, if the race is 600m he wants to give it a shot.

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                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Ned Ryerson
                                Pretty sure it was a time trial.
                                Pretty sure? :? Come on, let's deal in facts. And any time that's come in the last couple of years since he's gotten older and started running marathons will be a lot slower than when he was younger and still able to compete in 1500's. I would really like to see this Bolt and Bekele thing happen, if for no other reason, we would no longer have to guess what kind of speed Bekele has if given a few weeks to sharpen up his sprinting legs.

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