Who will Bolt's challengers be in London 2012?

[Noon]

This may be early, but it's never too soon to get a jump on things.
Who will be Bolt's main competition 3 years from now?
Will he even have competition?
Will it be his current rivals still hanging in there?
Will the young hungry crop of teen sprinters that arrived this season develop into to heavyweights?
Will it be someone we have yet to hear of or have largely forgotten?
Let's discuss.

I'll state that of the big 4 teen sprinters this season (Guliyev, Blake, Eduard, Lemaitre) I like Lemaitre to be the most realistic challenge. This kid is loaded with speed and doesn't even have any clue yet what to do with it. His mechanics are awful, his start is a joke and he's built like a male Muna Lee from the belt up. (His levers are already powerfully built.)
If he has the right coaching and can bulk up and master some form he is going to be one dangerous cookie.

Can you imagine how big of a showdown it will be if this goofy caucasian kid comes along and puts up some 9.7's pre-London, becoming the only serious threat to Bolt's kingdom? He is also the only of the 19ers to have the height to match Bolt's stride length.
He definitely has a long way to go, but I'd say he has the best upside.

I don't think Powell and Gay will last that long. They will still be around, but not likely a threat.

[Haskell45]

Gulyiev and Alonso Edwards will also be ones to watch.
Lamaitre can do well with more muscle; definitely 19.7x runner but i don't see anybody including Blake running 9.7x in the 100m just yet.
Bolt and Powell may be the only men to have fully mastered 9.7x to a tee.
Some of these young guys tend to bloom early and stay there for a while, we just have to wait and see.

[RamGoat]

You forget Tyson Gay... I think he has mastered it.. even though he only has three legal 9.7x timings.

[bman]

When people talk about the next generation of sprinter I think of Lemaitre. He has the height that is all the rage now with Bolt. I agree that he has a ton of upside physically and it seems pretty obvious that he will be the first white under 10, perhaps 9.9 or even 9.8, in the same way Bolt was the first under 9.7 and 9.6 (and poised to go beyond).

Having said that Edward is looking the best out of all of them right now at 200. I don't know what his plans are regarding school but I really really hope he doesn't start getting hurt or otherwise mysteriously stop developing.

I like the mix of nations that are producing good young sprinters these days. France has always been in the mix, but Panama, Azerbaijan, and to a lesser extent Grenada producing these guys is great for the sport.

[Vault-emort]

LaShawn in the 400 and Mitch Watt in the LJ

[jpaule]

Who will Bolt's challengers be in London 2012?

The Clock and himself.

[Barry Allen]

Barring injuries and Bolt remains committed and focused (training wise) there will be no competition. I expect Bolt to be 9.45 basic for the 100m and 19.05 basic for the 200m come 2012.

I base my projections on the fact that I expect him to get more endurance and strength which will make him faster. I also expect him to work on his technical flaws. He will be more developed as a sprinter then.

No disrespect to all the young talents, Tyson and Asafa but they will be running for the silver and bronze medals as is current situation.

Bolt is just on another level period!!!!!!

[Noon]

Barring injuries and Bolt remains committed and focused (training wise) there will be no competition. I expect Bolt to be 9.45 basic for the 100m and 19.05 basic for the 200m come 2012.

I base my projections on the fact that I expect him to get more endurance and strength which will make him faster. I also expect him to work on his technical flaws. He will be more developed as a sprinter then.

No disrespect to all the young talents, Tyson and Asafa but they will be running for the silver and bronze medals as is current situation.

Bolt is just on another level period!!!!!!

So you think Bolt will be undefeated, barring injury in a race, between now and 2012? I guess another question I could have asked is who will be the next man to defeat Bolt? Is it someone we're aware or some jr. high school kid out there who will topple Usain after he's past 30...

[JRM]

There are two ways Bolt can be beaten:

(1) Someone rises to his level and surpasses him.

(2) Bolt wears out with age and the 2nd ranked-sprinter overtakes him.

The question is: how long will he maintain his dominance?

[Barry Allen]

I doubt he will be defeated in any of those one off races in the Diamond League but come show time (OG and WC) everyone else will be running for second and third until 2024. I expect Bolt to continue dominating all major championships until 2020 when he will be 30.

Again all of this is barring injuries and the hunger to stay on top.

[Haskell45]

Bolt can go past 30 with the same level of performances. I think he can go as far as 40 years of age and still be able to drop 9.8s day in day out.
As time progresses we have much better health and diet and we are also seeing older and older athletes and sportsmen still competitive at what they do.
Bolt can easily be another merlene ottey competeting into his 40s.

[Barry Allen]

Bolt can go past 30 with the same level of performances. I think he can go as far as 40 years of age and still be able to drop 9.8s day in day out.
As time progresses we have much better health and diet and we are also seeing older and older athletes and sportsmen still competitive at what they do.
Bolt can easily be another merlene ottey competeting into his 40s.

I agree but I was speaking from the perspective of his dominance.

[Noon]

I doubt he will be defeated in any of those one off races in the Diamond League but come show time (OG and WC) everyone else will be running for second and third until 2024. I expect Bolt to continue dominating all major championships until 2020 when he will be 30.

Again all of this is barring injuries and the hunger to stay on top.

He'll be 30 in 2016. Rio (likely). He was born in 1986.
It's not inconceivable that he can lose a race. He lost two heats to Daniel Bailey this year and tied with him in their 1st race of the season. Granted he was not at full steam, but all it takes is one lazy race in the 100 to lose. I don't see him losing a 200 for sometime.

If you have a Lemaitre steal a diamond league race from him and put up some times like Gay was there will be significant hype.

[Barry Allen]

Thanks for the corrrection.

[jazzcyclist]

Didn't Powell beat him on the European circuit last year?