Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

[misterp]

Several postings in a recent thread suggested that US women milers may do well in Athens, if Toomey continues to run strongly and Hamilton can "shake the cobwebs." When she's running well, Hamilton is a joy to watch - not afraid to take it out fast, with a strong kick at the end, and competitive as heck. But when she's not running well, she's a disaster. I don't know if it's cobwebs or what, but she is not a big race runner. So here's the poll - who do we think is more likely to make the finals in Athens - Mo Greene or Suzy? Who's more likely to make the US team?

And here's a legal question. Is it illegal for Regina Jacobs to race, or is she just ducking the media and the controversy? Admittedly, she's over 40, but last year she was peaking at about this time.

[Bob Duncan]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Unless SFH completely falls apart, she should make the team. And I believe that if she does, that she will make the final in Athens.

Greene is more of a question mark, given his injuries. I get the impression that he is really gun shy about getting reinjured and consequently will not train and race with his usual intensity. He gets a lot of flak for his words, but he knows that he has to maintain his mental edge, too. I won't fault him for believing in himself. I'm pulling for the guy to make a comeback and at least make the team. But if he is really this fragile, it will be difficult for him to even make the final in the Olympic Trials.

All of the drug questions this year may make the Butch Reynolds affair of 1992 in New Orleans look like a warmup lap. The likely absence of Regina Jacobs means that domestically, SFH will need more competition to reach the sub 4:00 times once again. Hopefully, Teter will come back to give both Toomey and SFH runs for their money.

[hj197steve]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Suzi is a much greater probable than is Mo to make the team. I'll make her 70 %, and him 35%. She then has about a 65 % probability of making the final IMHO.

[go pre]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

I don't know if it's cobwebs or
>what, but she is not a big race runner.


you must remember that suzy finished second many times to jacobs, who likely was cheating, in some big races.

[jhc68]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Suzy is a way bigger problem for Suzy than Jacobs has ever been. To say she has had "trouble" in big races is a major understatement. Still, barring injury, she ought to be a lock to make the US team and she has the talent to make the finals. I'll bet the deed to the farm she doesn't win, though. As for Mo. He won't make the team, probably won't even run in the trials, IMHO.

[CookyMonzta]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Quite right. Without Regina at Sydney, and a 3:57.40 in her back pocket, the gold was practically around Suzy's neck. She had it won until the last 120, and she blew up, in what turned out to be a race that was won in 4:05.10.

As for Mo, he has not been the same since he ripped his hamstring after 85m of that 2001 World Championship final. People today say he probably ran the fastest 100y ever in that race.

If I had to make a raw prediction right now, I'd say there's a 50% chance that Jearl might move up once more, to the 1,500, if not attempt an 800/1,500 double of her own. Her days of running a fast 400 (certainly fast enough to contend for a medal) are slowly coming to an end, and consider that she ran 1:58 in the 800 last year.

[az2]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

My take on the matter is Suzy kept losing to Regina, and it became a MASSIVE psychological problem for Suzy.

The interesting past will be, whether the revelation that regina was more than likely cheating in a certain number of those encounter RELIEVE the psychological barrier Suzy had encountered...

..OR whether the nature of her woes are deeper.

I do suspect Suzy can make the FINALS...but to medal will be very difficult.

Be interesting to see if any UNKNOWN other 1500 female cheaters get off the juice....

..szabo anyone??

[CookyMonzta]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Psychological or not, it made Suzy run much faster than she probably thought she could have run. When she ran 3:57.40 in Oslo in 2000 (following a 5-second improvement to 3:58.43 in Monaco in 1998), she had to know that she had an outstanding chance for a medal in Sydney.

[Brian]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Racing Jacobs was as close as Hamilton could have gotten to international competition and still been in the US (Like Salazar & Virgin racing the Kenyans in NCAA competition). This would help, not hurt, no matter what the finish results.

Hamilton has had BIG problems internationally because of Hamilton, period. It will be interesting to see if this changes.

With Toomey, Tollefson, the Mississippi State gal, and who knows whomever proverbially comes out of the woodwork in the Olympic year, I wouldn't put money on Hamilton to even make the team. Who knows?

[CookyMonzta]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

<<<With Toomey, Tollefson, the Mississippi State gal, and who knows whomever proverbially comes out of the woodwork in the Olympic year, I wouldn't put money on Hamilton to even make the team. Who knows?>>>

Ooooh, dem's fightin' words! But you know something? You're probably right. If Mississippi State's Tiffany McWilliams improves another 5 seconds (I believe she ran 4:06 twice last year), and Jearl Miles-Clark moves up to the 1,500 (or attempts an 8/15 double), and Meredith Valmon joins Edwin Moses in coming out of retirement, and chooses to run the 1,500, Suzy's in BIG trouble at the OTs in Sacramento.

Speaking of Olympic-year comebacks, who else is coming out of retirement?

[az2]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

carl lewis is back in training!!

[CookyMonzta]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

<<carl lewis is back in training!!>>

'Tain't funny, McGee!

[jhc68]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Mike Powell is supposed to be training seriously with an eye toward Athens... if King Carl were serious, too, what would be the odds of either or both of them long jumping into contention for the team? Any 27 foot plus jump could concievably place them in another Olympics. Is a jump two feet off their pr's impossible at this point in time? Fun to speculate, but imagine how disheartening it would be for our current elite jumpers to be bumped by a couple of has beens!!!

[Brian]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

>Jearl Miles-Clark moves up to the 1,500 (or >attempts an 8/15
>double), and Meredith Valmon joins Edwin Moses in coming out of retirement, and
>chooses to run the 1,500, Suzy's in BIG trouble at the OTs in
>Sacramento.

I would worry less about 400/800 people moving up in a rounds competition. They can always bust a fast race on talent, but most don't have the stamina to successfully do rounds and have a great final at the highest level. (Miles-Clark has had trouble doing so even in the 800, much less twice the distance.)

I agree on McWilliams and others like her (strength types). Find a well-coached, good national-class female with an 800/1500 range who has run some steadily-improving times during April and May and then spends 4-6 weeks at altitude until two weeks before the Trials, and there's the darkhorse ready for a breakthrough to make the team.

I think the women's 1500 has the potential to be one of the most exciting of the Trials this time.

[dl]

Re: Poll - Hamilton or Greene? (plus legal question)

Personally, I don't think either will make the Athens final. I don't think Greene will make the U.S. team, but he still has a better chance of making the Athens final than Hamilton. Toomey would have a chance, but I think she'll concentrate on the 800.