Berlin Marathon 2009

[croflash]

This Sunday at 9am CET (3am EST)

Official Site

Story on Duncan Kibet

IAAF Preview


WR looming ? Can Kibet beat Gebrselassie ? Will someone else steal the show ?

[SQUACKEE]

Re: Berlin Marathon 2009

WR looming ? Can Kibet beat Gebrselassie ? Will someone else steal the show ?

Yes, Kibet can win but so can Sammy. For the first time in history, IMO, we have 3 runners capable of running under 2:04!

Universal will also be showing a delayed broadcast on TV Sunday night @ 9.

[The Captain]

Sammy's running Chicago ...
Weather forecast suggests it will be hot.

[Frans Rutten]

The Southafrican sportsscientists Ross Tucker and Jonathon Dugas return to their core business: analyzing marathons. See www.sportscientists.com
In text links to lot's of marathon analysis.

[DecFan]

Correct link: http://www.sportsscientists.com/. Really worth looking at. They predict a Kibet victory, with some trepidation.

[Noon]

Geb will break the 30K and Marathon world record in one swallow. Giving him 28 career world records.

[26mi235]

Geb will break the 30K and Marathon world record in one swallow. Giving him 28 career world records.

Unless the 30K mark is within relatively close proximity to the start, it will not be eligible for the record. Also, it has been demonstrated that breaking the record requires a very good last 10km and breaking the 30km enroute might be tough.

[joeltetreault]

projected Berlin weather conditions

weatherunderground.com lists the following weather conditions for Berlin tomorrow morning:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... day=Sunday

8am (start really is at 9:00):
Temp: 55F
Dew Point: 50F
Humidity: 82%

11am (finish):
Temp: 68F
Dew Point: 57F
Humidity: 68%

The following is a list of the weather conditions for the top fastest marathons ever. The first column lists the fastest time for that marathon (that year), the marathon and year, the start time weather conditions, and then the end time weather conditions.

2:03:59 - Berlin 2008 - 44.6F / 44.6F / 100% / 8.1mph - 55.4F / 50.0F / 82% / 8.1mph
2:04:26 - Berlin 2007 - 53.6F / 48.2F / 82% / 10.4mph - 57.2F / 50.0F / 77% / 15.0mph
2:04:27 - Rotterdam 2009 - 42.8F / 41.0F / 93% / 3.5mph - 44.6F / 42.8F / 87% / 3.5mph
2:04:53 - Dubai 2008 - 51.8F / 44.6F / 76% / 5.8mph - 60.8F /42.8F / 52% / 5.8mph
2:04:55 - Berlin 2003 - 39.2F / 37.4F / 93% /3.5mph - 55.4F / 42.8F / 63% / 4.6mph
2:05:15 - London 2008 - 39.2F / 39.2F / 100% / 6.9mph - 50.0F / 42.8F / 76% / 6.9mph
2:05:29 - Dubai 2009 - 55.4F / 46.4F / 72% / 9.2mph - 62.6F / 46.4F / 55% / 6.9mph
2:05:38 - London 2002 - 37.4F / 32.0F / 81% / calm - 44.6F / 37.4F / 76% / 2.3mph
2:05:42 - Chicago 1999 - 48.0F / 18.0F / 30% / 3.5mph - 41.0F / 21.9F / 47% / 4.6mph
2:05:47 - Paris 2009 - 44.6F / 42.8F / 93% / calm - 50.0F / 42.8F / 76% / 4.6mph
2:05:49 - Rotterdam 2008 - 44.6F / 41.0F / 87% / 6.9mph - 48.2F / 42.8F / 82% / 11.5mph

So compared to the above conditions, Berlin 2009 is shaping up to be a bit on the warm side, making it less conducive for a fast time. None of the ten marathons above have a hotter end time temperature or dew point.

[DecFan]

Joel:
Thanks - this is helpful. I agree that this looks on the warm side.

But I'm not understanding your table. Why the two temperature columns for both start time and finish time?

(edit) . . . OK, that must be dewpoint.

[joeltetreault]

Joel:

(edit) . . . OK, that must be dewpoint.

Sorry for the confusion, I should have annotated a little better, yep it's dew point.

[measurer]

"Unless the 30K mark is within relatively close proximity to the start, it will not be eligible for the record. "

The 30k point needs to be within 15k of the start with a net drop of not greater then 1 meter/km.
I quick comparison of the course map and google earth shows the approximate distance from start to finish to be around 7km + the elevation at the 30k appears to be much higher then the start.

[Frans Rutten]

Geb will break the 30K and Marathon world record in one swallow. Giving him 28 career world records.

Unless the 30K mark is within relatively close proximity to the start, it will not be eligible for the record. Also, it has been demonstrated that breaking the record requires a very good last 10km and breaking the 30km enroute might be tough.

Gebr already came very close (1s) in Dubai 2008 with 1:28.01.
After that he faded. Last year in Berlin Gebr came close to 25s.

Gebr might perhaps wind up with a 30K WR by deliberately dismissing his WR-attempt at the marathon due to less favourable circumstances.

[LopenUupunut]

The split table...

km - Tergat - Lel        - Geb07  - Geb08  - Rot09   - Wanjiru - Berlin09
05 - 0:15:01 - 0:14:22 - 0:14:44 - 0:14:34 - 0:14:41 - 0:14:08 - 0:14:30
10 - 0:29:58 - 0:29:10 - 0:29:27 - 0:29:12 - 0:29:18 - 0:28:30 - 0:29:16
15 - 0:44:46 - 0:44:00 - 0:44:16 - 0:44:02 - 0:44:15 - 0:43:12 - 0:43:58
20 - 0:59:45 - 0:58:58 - 0:59:10 - 0:58:49 - 0:59:05 - 0:58:14 - 0:58:34
½ - 1:03:03 - 1:02:13 - 1:02:29 - 1:02:03 - 1:02:35 - 1:01:35 - 1:01:45
25 - 1:14:43 - 1:13:47 - 1:14:05 - 1:13:39 - 1:14:07 - 1:13:35 - 1:13:09
30 - 1:29:25 - 1:28:29 - 1:28:56 - 1:28:27 - 1:28:52 - 1:28:35 - 1:27:44
35 - 1:44:00 - 1:43:54 - 1:43:38 - 1:43:05 - 1:43:15 - 1:43:18 - 1:42:37
40 - 1:58:38 - 1:58:53 - 1:58:08 - 1:57:34 - 1:57:54 - 1:58:32 - 1:58:34
Fin - 2:04:55 - 2:05:15 - 2:04:26 - 2:03:59 - 2:04:27 - 2:05:10 - 2:06:0x

(I won't bother checking the accurate final time to the second, since Geb really ran a 30k today, not a marathon. He won't make the next edition of this split table...)

[CookyMonzta]

Where are you getting your footage and your splits from?? Universal Sports just started televising the race, and they're at the 7K mark.

[Hano]

Where are you getting your splits from?? Universal Sports just started televising the race, and they're at the 7K mark.

http://berlin.mikatiming.de/2009/index. ... eaderboard