some philosophy on the Rankings [split]

[Mighty Favog]

Geez, you people don't read...

Right at the intro to the World Rankings, every year, it says that while head-to-head records are second in importance after "honors won", one win in a major competition can be more important than multiple losses in less important ones.

Now, whether this protocol is actually followed is a separate argument. But the official policy is right there.

In terms of an example, I didn't have to go far. The first rankings issue I grabbed out of my closet was the 2005 one, and in the men's 400 Tyler Christopher was ranked #2 ahead of Andrew Rock. No surprise if you look only at head to head; Christopher was 2-1 versus Rock. Rock beat him at the Worlds, though, so it was pretty much a wash. But the text at the header didn't even bring it up. Rock won no races all year, while Christopher won four GP races. Head-to-head didn't matter in light of that.

Scanning through the Rankings issue, the thing that gets mentioned more often than anything else is how many times an athlete won GP meets, especially the bigger ones (Golden League, Super GP). The Worlds count a whole lot, but you can trump that with a lot of other major victories. Jeter won seven times on the GP circuit (including the WAF) to Fraser's three. If Jeter comes out #1, that will be how she did it.

[donley2]

My biggest beef with the rankings has never been the close calls, it has been ranking people who rarely compete. The first example that comes to mind is Ramzi's 2 race season in the 1500 that earned him 2nd. That was one the of the few redeeming qualities of the old IAAF rankings; If you don't compete enough you don't rank.

[gh]

defining "enough" is the problem: I remember back (4-5 years ago) when we decided that Radcliffe hadn't competed enough (despite a marathon WR) to be nominated for the AOY ballot and we almost had WWIII on our hands.

Lots of judgment calls involved.

[26mi235]

Geez, you people don't read...

Right at the intro to the World Rankings, every year, it says that while head-to-head records are second in importance after "honors won", one win in a major competition can be more important than multiple losses in less important ones.

This amounts to double counting. The honors won already includes, by implication, the victory in the major competition. The won-loss record stands on its own, not weighted by the honors.

[toyracer]

Scanning through the Rankings issue, the thing that gets mentioned more often than anything else is how many times an athlete won GP meets, especially the bigger ones (Golden League, Super GP). The Worlds count a whole lot, but you can trump that with a lot of other major victories. Jeter won seven times on the GP circuit (including the WAF) to Fraser's three. If Jeter comes out #1, that will be how she did it.

However, that was not the case for Asafa in '07. And that is where some of my confusion is rooted. From memory, (emphasis on memory, I may be wrong) Asafa had more circuit wins that Gay, at bigger events. He topped one event with a new world record, and also won the WAF. gh has explained that looking at past years will drive a person crazy, now I see why.

If I have the time today I'll look at the stats for Asafa and Gay from '07, versus the stats for SAF and Jeter from '09, so that a better comparison can be made. I have a lot of work on my plate today so please forgive if I do not follow through, today. I do want a better understanding of this subject (it is certainly intriguing) so I will ensure to make some time for this, most likely tomorrow. I will also look at the '07 season and try ranking it using the old method, that may be interesting, or may not. Fun stuff.

[26mi235]

toyracer, going on memory, Gay never lost to Asafa or anyone else. For the women, SAF lost numerous times, whereas Jeter only had the one string of losses to the top one or two and that was after an injury. She also won the bigger non-WC events and ended up dominating SAF and everyone else at the end.

[toyracer]

toyracer, going on memory, Gay never lost to Asafa or anyone else.

Gay lost to Spearman at the Golden Gran Prix, Shanghai. Spearman ran his PB 9.96, Gay finished second in 10.02. I may have some time to work on the full comparison.

[26mi235]

toyracer, going on memory, Gay never lost to Asafa or anyone else.

Gay lost to Spearman at the Golden Gran Prix, Shanghai. Spearman ran his PB 9.96, Gay finished second in 10.02. I may have some time to work on the full comparison.

Races run as fall begins are a bit less telling, although it is a loss.

[Mighty Favog]

Geez, you people don't read...

Right at the intro to the World Rankings, every year, it says that while head-to-head records are second in importance after "honors won", one win in a major competition can be more important than multiple losses in less important ones.

This amounts to double counting. The honors won already includes, by implication, the victory in the major competition. The won-loss record stands on its own, not weighted by the honors.

You're misreading that. Defeating a specific competitor in a major competition is what's meant, not defeating all competitors.

[26mi235]

[quote=Mighty Favog]

Geez, you people don't read...

Right at the intro to the World Rankings, every year, it says that while head-to-head records are second in importance after "honors won", one win in a major competition can be more important than multiple losses in less important ones.

This amounts to double counting. The honors won already includes, by implication, the victory in the major competition. The won-loss record stands on its own, not weighted by the honors.

You're misreading that. Defeating a specific competitor in a major competition is what's meant, not defeating all competitors.[/quote:2iz538xk]

If we were talking number 3 or 4 or 8, yes. However, when we are talking number 1 and gold medals, which we were, the two are essentially identical. In fact, when comparing W/L records, you can almost take the W for the gold out, as it is already included in the calculus with a higher factor. Put another way, outside of the WCs Jeter was 4-2 on SAF.

[Non Potest]

toyracer, going on memory, Gay never lost to Asafa or anyone else.

Gay lost to Spearman at the Golden Gran Prix, Shanghai. Spearman ran his PB 9.96, Gay finished second in 10.02. I may have some time to work on the full comparison.

Races run as fall begins are a bit less telling, although it is a loss.

SAF said almost the same thing in a recent interview. Cited chronic fatigue to make her argument.

[Marlow]

Many times, in explanation of a ranking, it has been written (passive voice, obfuscating the culprit) that Mr. X beat Mr. Y 4-3, HEAD-TO-HEAD, therefore, ipso facto, e pluribus unum, X MUST rank higher.

wrong

OK, so I got out my binder that holds this decade's Annuals and starting counting how many times I saw the win-loss record listed in the write-ups as to why so-and-so was ranked where s/he was. NO mention of the importance of those match-ups, just the win-loss record. I stopped at 10.

I say again, the win-loss record is worthless without an evaluation of the importance of EACH match-up. If you are down 3-5, but if your 3 are more 'important' than the other guy's 5, you should still win.

[toyracer]

Overview, 2007 season, Gay and Asafa. 100m races only.

Tyson Gay. Ranked #1.

Five fastest times.
9.76 +2.2m/s New York
9.79 +2.5m/s Carson
9.84 -0.5m/s Indianapolis
9.85 -0.5m/s Osaka
9.97 -1.1m/s Indianapolis

Wins.
Addidas Track Classic, Carson 20/5/2007. Area Permit Meeting. 9.79 +2.5m/s
Reebok Grand Prix, New York 2/6/2007. IAAF Grand Prix. 9.76 +2.2m/s
National Championships, Indianapolis 22/6/2007. USATF Championships. 9.84 -0.5m/s
British Grand Prix, Sheffield 15/7/2007. IAAF Grand Prix. 10.13 -0.4m/s
Norwich Union, London 3/8/2007 IAAF Super Grand Prix. 10.02 -0.8m/s
World Championships, Osaka 26/8/2007 IAAF World Championships 9.85 -0.5m/s
Yokohama Super Meet, Yokohama 30/9/2009. Area Permit Meeting. 10.23 -1.4m/s

Losses.
Shanghai Golden Grand Prix, Shanghai 28/9/2007. 10.02 0.0m/s (2nd place)

Reported injuries
Knee 30/9/2007.

Asafa Powell. Ranked #2.

Five fastest times.
9.74 +1.7m/s Rieti
9.78 0.0m/s Rieti
9.83 -0.3m/s Stuttgart
9.84 -0.3m/s Bruxelles
9.90 +0.5m/s Rome

Wins.
Bislet Games, Oslo 15/6/2007. Golden League. 9.94 +0.9m/s
National Championships, Kingston 23/6/2007. JAAA National Championships. 10.04 +1.0m/s
Golden Gala, Rome 13/7/2007. Golden League. 9.90 +0.5m/s
DN Galan, Stockholm 7/8/2007. Grand Prix. 10.04 -0.3m/s
Rieti 2007, Rieti 9/9/2007. Grand Prix. 9.78 0.0m/s
Memorial Van Damme, Bruxelles 14/9/2007. Golden League. 9.84 -0.3m/s
World Athletic final, Stuttgart 22/9/2009. IAAF World Athletic final. 9.83 -0.3m/s

Losses.
World Championships, Osaka 26/8/2007 (third place)

Reported injuries.
Groin 23/6/2007
Hamstring 30/9/2007

Summary.
Gay wins 7 events.2 Area Permit. 1 National Championship. 2 Grand Prix. 1 Super Grand Prix. 1 World Championship.
Gay lost 1 event, a Grand Prix.
Asafa wins 7 events. 1 National Championship. 2 Grand Prix. 3 Golden League. 1 World Athletic Final.
Asafa lost 1 event, the World Championship.
Asafa sets new world record.

Head-to-head Gay versus Asafa; 1-0.

I'll write a post comparing SAF and Jeter later, then an overall summary. I'll also include scoring using the All-Athletics scoring system, which is the same system previously used by the IAAF.

[Smoke]

toyracer I thank you for reminding to me look at the rankings elsewhere and subsequently the history of the season.
There is no question that CJ will be number one. Once the rankers look at the body of work of the three medalist they will discover clear evidence of who was the best woman on the season.
From beginning to end CJ has produced the goods all the way. The other ladies have been in and out, peaking at Worlds (as it should be) but actually lacking the background performances to support being ranked over CJ. At least that is how I see this season.
I do look forward to your breakdown and scoring results, should be interesting.

[toyracer]

Overview, 2009 season, Jeter and SAF. 100m races only.

Carmelita Jeter. Ranked # ?

Five fastest times.
10.64 +1.2m/s Shanghai 20/9/2009
10.67 -0.1m/s Thessaloniki 13/9/2009
10.78 +3.3m/s Eugene 26/6/2009
10.83 -0.1m/s Berlin 17/8/2009
10.83 -0.4 Daegu 25/9/2009

Wins.
Mt. SAC Relays, Walnut 18/4/2009. USATF/NCAA. 10.96 +0.9m/s
Addidas Track Classic, Carson 16/5/2009. Area Permit Meeting. 11.09 -0.9m/s
Reebok Grand Prix, New York 30/5/2009. Grand Prix. 10.85 +2.8m/s
Prefontaine Classic, Eugene 7/6/2009. Grand Prix. 10.85 +3.2m/s
National Championships, Eugene 26/6/2009. USATF.Championships 10.78 +3.3m/s
25th Vardinoyiannia, Rethimno 20/7/2009. Area Permit Meeting. 10.97 +1.3m/s
Aviva London GP, London 24/7/2009. Super Grand Prix. 10.92 -0.1m/s
Weltklasse, Zurich 28/8/2009. Golden League.10.86 +0.7m/s
Aviva British GP, Gateshead 31/8/2009. Grand Prix 11.07 -0.9m/s
Memorial Van Damme, Bruxelles. Golden League 4/9/2009 10.88 +0.5m/s
WAF, Thessaloniki 13/9/2009. World Athletic Final. 13/9/2009 10.67 -0.1m/s

Losses.
Althessima, Lausanne 7/7/2009. Super Grand Prix. 11.06 0.0m/s (2nd place)
Golden Gala, Rome 10/7/2009. Golden League. 11.10 +0.6m/s (4th place, heat)
Golden Gala, Rome 10/7/2009. Golden League. 11.01 +0.4m/s (4th place, final)
Athens GP, Athina 13/7/2009. Grand Prix. 11.02 +0.4m/s (2nd place)
World Championships, Berlin 17/8/2009. World Championships. 10.90 +0.1m/s (3rd place)

Reported injuries.
None.

I'll do the breakdown for SAF tomorrow, time does not permit me to do it now.