Can Tyson Gay get the 200 m AR?

[The Norwegian]

Like many, I'm a bit sad that we didn't get to see more of Tyson Gay's potential in the the 200 this year. Don't get me wrong, I'm really impressed by his 19,58. He had top times in the event and still PRed. But that was his first 200 of the season and he did wonders in the 100 since then. I think it's he could've gone a lot faster this season if not for the injury. I'm just wondering how much faster? If he continues to improve, is 19.32 really out of reach? I know it's a long way from 19.58 to 19.32, but it was a long way from 19.66 and 19.67 as well.
What do you guys think? Can you see Tyson getting the AR some time during the rest of his career?

[Marlow]

Bolt has screwed with our perceptions of what's possible. Before him, my answer would have been no - the MJ record was the one weird outlier we get for several more decades (ala Beamon). But now . . . yeah, it's possible.

[unclezadok]

If he gets completely healthy, I'd say 19.30-19.40 is certainly possible.

[toyracer]

Even though their two 9.69's were different in nature (conditions, effort), the first showed that the runner was capable of sub-19.32 as well. It is no big leap to think that Gay's 9.69 is indicative of sub-19.32 potential. Using his 9.69 as a benchmark it appears that he would need next-to-ideal conditions, but it is certainly possible.

[Ned Ryerson]

He missed six weeks of winter training last year and opened up with a 19.58 in May, before any shorter races. No one has ever done that before. I have no doubt that he has the capability to break 19.32.

[Marlow]

Actually, I do NOT think the Gay of 2008/2009 is capable of it, but I do think the Gay of 2010-2012 will be. I think the light came on this year (mostly because of Bolt's accomplishments) and now he knows what it takes to get to be a consistent 9.7/19.5 sprinter. Performing at that level will ensure that when the time is right, he can break both the 100 (again) and 200 American records.

[TrackDaddy]

I think Gay has the potential but he seems to have really struggled with injuries the last couple of years. Hopefully it isnt an indication of breaking down and he can stay healthy. He's dropping nice 100m times with suspect health, but that aint possible in the deuce.

[TrainerPhil]

I can't see Gay running under 19.32. His body will fall a part (like it supposedly has the last couple of years) while chasing fast times. You can't ignore the injury factor and so far Gay has yet to prove that he can stay healthy enough to push Bolt. Make no mistake about it, if Gay runs under 19.32 he will be pushing Bolt hard.

9.69 was/is a tease. I doubt he will be able to consistently run low times without something (some muscle) giving on him. Just my take.

[Mikewats]

The way I see it if he runs under 19.32 he'll have a big legal tail wind and Bolt would of probably improved more by next year plus with finally a great wind behind him Bolt would be running close to 19 flat if not under, still a considerable gap.

[dj]

William Safire is spinning in his grave!

[tandfman]

Safire never read these Message Boards, If he had, he would have died of a conniption fit long ago. :-)

[SQUACKEE]

Bolt 9.58 & 19.19

Gay 9.69 & ? I'll say mid to high 1930's but not 19.31.

[Top_end_speed]

He has the ability to run those kind of times performance wise but in terms of longevity it will just do him harm in the future. Everytime he rans fast times he has a injury awaiting him at the finish line

[MostKnownUnknown]

he didnt get injured when he ran 9.69 :roll:

[7-sided]

He missed six weeks of winter training last year and opened up with a 19.58 in May, before any shorter races. No one has ever done that before. I have no doubt that he has the capability to break 19.32.

6 weeks of fall/winter training is different than 6 weeks of winter/spring training. Tyson had plenty of time to build his base, and sharpen his race. Also, Gay had a plan to build his strength by running relays and open 400's deep into the competitive season (for a top spriinter) while sharpening his race in practice.

Also, May 30 is "more" June than April. The 19.58 also happened to be less than 30 days away from start of the USATF trials. Tyson was as fit and as sharp as he was going to get. FWIW, 19.32 is not out of reach, but it is becoming less and less relevant as a 'world standard'.