The USATF’s task force 30, a program attempt to produce 30 medals at the London Games, got me to thinking about how many holdovers (not necessarily medalists) from the 2008 US Olympic team could be expected to be on the 2012 team.
On the average, since 1996 (i.e. 2000, 2004, 2008), the men’s Olympic team has had about 24% repeaters and the women’s team has had about 20%. The men’s events most likely to have repeaters (excluding the walks and relays) are the shot put (Godina, Nelson 3 times and Hoffa), the 110 Hurdles (Trammell 3 times and Johnson), the 100m (Greene and Crawford), the pole vault (Miles, Hartwig), the Dec (Clay, Pappas), the discus (Waltz and Malone) and the 400H (Taylor, Carter). Other events with one repeater are the 200m, 400m, SC, 10K, LJ, TJ, Jav, HJ, and the hammer. The events with no repeaters are 800, 1500, 5K, Marathon.
The women’s events most likely are the 100m (Jones and Edwards), 200m (Jones, Felix and Lee), the 400m (Hannagan and Trottrer), the 800m (J-M Clark, H Clark, Teter), the HJ (Acuff 3 times, Howard), the PV (Dragila, Suttle), and the discus (Sua and Trafton). Other events with 1 repeater are the 5K, marathon, 100H, LJ, SP, Jav and the Hept. Events with no repeaters are 1500m, 10K, 400H, TJ, and the hammer (the women's steeplechase was not contested in 2000 or 2004).
Events with men’s medalists who repeated making an Olympic team over this period of time are 100m, 200m 400m, 110mH, 400mH, HJ, SP, Decathlon and the hammer. Events with women’s medalists who repeated making an Olympic team over this period of time are much fewer with only 5 athletes in 100m, 200m, 400mH and the PV .
Based on this history, the US can only expect about 22% of last years team returning for 2012 and only about 5% of the medalists (this applies only to individual events).
On the average, since 1996 (i.e. 2000, 2004, 2008), the men’s Olympic team has had about 24% repeaters and the women’s team has had about 20%. The men’s events most likely to have repeaters (excluding the walks and relays) are the shot put (Godina, Nelson 3 times and Hoffa), the 110 Hurdles (Trammell 3 times and Johnson), the 100m (Greene and Crawford), the pole vault (Miles, Hartwig), the Dec (Clay, Pappas), the discus (Waltz and Malone) and the 400H (Taylor, Carter). Other events with one repeater are the 200m, 400m, SC, 10K, LJ, TJ, Jav, HJ, and the hammer. The events with no repeaters are 800, 1500, 5K, Marathon.
The women’s events most likely are the 100m (Jones and Edwards), 200m (Jones, Felix and Lee), the 400m (Hannagan and Trottrer), the 800m (J-M Clark, H Clark, Teter), the HJ (Acuff 3 times, Howard), the PV (Dragila, Suttle), and the discus (Sua and Trafton). Other events with 1 repeater are the 5K, marathon, 100H, LJ, SP, Jav and the Hept. Events with no repeaters are 1500m, 10K, 400H, TJ, and the hammer (the women's steeplechase was not contested in 2000 or 2004).
Events with men’s medalists who repeated making an Olympic team over this period of time are 100m, 200m 400m, 110mH, 400mH, HJ, SP, Decathlon and the hammer. Events with women’s medalists who repeated making an Olympic team over this period of time are much fewer with only 5 athletes in 100m, 200m, 400mH and the PV .
Based on this history, the US can only expect about 22% of last years team returning for 2012 and only about 5% of the medalists (this applies only to individual events).
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