Will they still be around?

[nmzoo]

The USATF’s task force 30, a program attempt to produce 30 medals at the London Games, got me to thinking about how many holdovers (not necessarily medalists) from the 2008 US Olympic team could be expected to be on the 2012 team.

On the average, since 1996 (i.e. 2000, 2004, 2008), the men’s Olympic team has had about 24% repeaters and the women’s team has had about 20%. The men’s events most likely to have repeaters (excluding the walks and relays) are the shot put (Godina, Nelson 3 times and Hoffa), the 110 Hurdles (Trammell 3 times and Johnson), the 100m (Greene and Crawford), the pole vault (Miles, Hartwig), the Dec (Clay, Pappas), the discus (Waltz and Malone) and the 400H (Taylor, Carter). Other events with one repeater are the 200m, 400m, SC, 10K, LJ, TJ, Jav, HJ, and the hammer. The events with no repeaters are 800, 1500, 5K, Marathon.

The women’s events most likely are the 100m (Jones and Edwards), 200m (Jones, Felix and Lee), the 400m (Hannagan and Trottrer), the 800m (J-M Clark, H Clark, Teter), the HJ (Acuff 3 times, Howard), the PV (Dragila, Suttle), and the discus (Sua and Trafton). Other events with 1 repeater are the 5K, marathon, 100H, LJ, SP, Jav and the Hept. Events with no repeaters are 1500m, 10K, 400H, TJ, and the hammer (the women's steeplechase was not contested in 2000 or 2004).

Events with men’s medalists who repeated making an Olympic team over this period of time are 100m, 200m 400m, 110mH, 400mH, HJ, SP, Decathlon and the hammer. Events with women’s medalists who repeated making an Olympic team over this period of time are much fewer with only 5 athletes in 100m, 200m, 400mH and the PV .

Based on this history, the US can only expect about 22% of last years team returning for 2012 and only about 5% of the medalists (this applies only to individual events).

[Marlow]

Re: Will they still be around?

The USATF’s task force 30

was doomed to failure from the get-go, in the current environment. Now, if we had the resources, we could mount a dedicated program of recruitment (out of college) and support that COULD result in 30, but we have neither the resources nor the will-power to do that.

Instead of a pipe-dream with a number attached, how bouts Mr. Logan gets into the business of finding new sponsorships (like Home Depot used to have) that does something substantial in the support of post-grad athletes?

[unclezadok]

I don't think this evaluation means much unless you evaluate the individual athletes and events. For example, I think Gay will be back because of frustration at not having been able to run the 200m at the last two world meets, and he will not have lost much if anything. And I think it's likely that the 110h hurdlers will a different cast but much better in 2012. Hardee will certainly be back if healthy. Etc.

[dukehjsteve]

May I enter a comment here ?

Why is USATF and the Track Community ( that's us) and the Media so obsessed with all this ? Track is not an international team sport. Sure, I like to see my own country do well, but it seems like there is almost a mania about all this from the 3 parties mentioned above.

[Smoke]

May I enter a comment here ?

Why is USATF and the Track Community ( that's us) and the Media so obsessed with all this ? Track is not an international team sport. Sure, I like to see my own country do well, but it seems like there is almost a mania about all this from the 3 parties mentioned above.

duke this is called denial. The Games and Worlds is an international team sport. What you think all that money is being poured in because Michael Phelps is great? That money was in before Phelps became a name. Same goes for any US star you can name. So to your specific question the manic one would be you in this. There are jobs and dollars one the line behind these numbers. I kindly suggest you do some research, start wth the UK and their lottery system and see what Charles van C. is after and being graded on.
Now I will agree that the 30 is a dumb idea but I also understand the various reasons it was put out there.
By the way, track still remains the crown jewel of the Games, and the US is still the worlds number one track team. Those are not manic ravings but statements of truth.

[Halfmiler2]

Re: Will they still be around?

The USATF’s task force 30

was doomed to failure from the get-go, in the current environment. Now, if we had the resources, we could mount a dedicated program of recruitment (out of college) and support that COULD result in 30, but we have neither the resources nor the will-power to do that.

Instead of a pipe-dream with a number attached, how bouts Mr. Logan gets into the business of finding new sponsorships (like Home Depot used to have) that does something substantial in the support of post-grad athletes?

Well, he got Nike renewed over the summer at a substantial increase in a tough sponsorship environment. With Visa also locked up, he already has enough sponsorship to do the existing USATF stuff, and he has three more years to try to get to his thirty million dollar goal which would allow all sorts of programs to happen.

As to his goal of a thirty percent increase in memberships, USATF may go over 100,000 in 2009 for the first time since the marathon's required USATF membership. That is a good start.

The medals always depend on a lot of factors. But I am glad someone actually set a goal with a high bar. The fact that the USA had so many athletes qualify for finals in Berlin is a good sign. You got to be in it (i.e. the final), to win it.