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  • Hypothetically speaking...

    If Bill Gates randomly decided to transfer his entire net worth to me tomorrow morning, and i suddenly woke up with 50 billion dollars in my lap...

    And I decided to get creative with it, and see what Earth's human population was really capable of at track and field sprints...

    So I offered an open competition, open to Earth's entire human population, where the rules were, whichever person owned the fastest recorded IAAF-approved time in the 100m dash as of the day September 1, 2015, would be rewarded with one BILLION dollars (yes, billion, with a "b"), and same for the 200m and 400m, same rules/reward of 1 Billion dollars, and contest-end deadline being September 1, 2015, what do you think the world records would be in the 100m, 200m, and 400m by September 1, 2015?

    I assume that Track and Field sprinting would skyyyyyyyyyyyyyyrocket incredibly dramatically, with tons of random people all over the world who felt they were pretty fast, young dudes, and had no reason not to give it a go, all training to see how fast they could go. Even if 99.9% of them realized pretty quickly that they would never come close to being fast enough to win, 0.1% of them would probably notice that they were progressing to some pretty fast times, and stick with it to see how low they could go, and, when there's millions of fit dudes in their early 20's, even just 0.01% of them is still thousands of highly motivated up and comers coming out of the woodwork. It would amplify the current sprint talent pool at least a hundredfold, if not a thousandfold, so we'd really get to see a bunch of bran new supertalents who never would've realized how talented they were at sprinting had they not been motivated to try it when they gave it a try just for kix one day after the big news came up of the billion dollar prize, knowing they were always pretty fast growing up, and figuring, oh why not at least give it a try, see what their baseline was and if it was worth considering doing seriously.

    9.2x, 18.7x, and 41.x?

    I strongly doubt Bolt is anywhere near being the genuinely fastest human being on the planet. I strongly believe that he IS obviously the genuinely fastest of the current pool of high level track and field sprinters, but, given what a tiny fraction of earth's fit, fast, young adult male population the current mens sprint pool is, it would be statistically extremely unlikely that he is the best raw sprint talent currently in existence out of all the young men on the planet right now. That said, obviously whichever unknown dudes who don't run track (and never have in their life) who are faster raw talents than Bolt wouldn't already be faster him prior to training, they'd be way slower, but I mean like, if they discovered track sprinting and trained hard at it upon realizing they had a real talent for it via my Billion dollar challenge, there certainly have to be a handful of guys out there who would become considerably faster than even Bolt by that deadline.

  • #2
    Re: Hypothetically speaking...

    If there's somebody faster than Bolt, how has he possibly gone uncovered? Identifying raw speed isn't rocket science.

    If there's anybody out there even close to as fast as Bolt, I'm pretty sure he'd have already been discovered. That kind of speed, even if not in track, would very quickly become evident on a soccer pitch somewhere.

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    • #3
      Re: Hypothetically speaking...

      If you could get a lot more people into the sport it could push existing guys like Bolt faster just to win races. In those circumstance he'd be far more likely to get the right combination of tailwind, weather, reaction times etc. on a quality run as he'd be forced to run to the line much more often. Also, there really might be a bunch of Bolt calibre sprinters in places like Nigeria but we'd need some spectacular social changes there to find out (what good is a billion dollar incentive without the training and the facilities).

      If you really could engage vastly more of the potential sprinters in the world I think you might have roughly the following times for the men's sprints by 2015:

      100m: 9.51
      200m: 18.97
      400m: 42.56

      But then I think Bolt might be responsible for any or all of the above. :P

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      • #4
        Re: Hypothetically speaking...

        I think it is very possible that someone, or imo MULTIPLE men faster than Bolt could go undiscovered across Earth's entire male population.

        Just because you have superior raw talent for sprinting to Usain Bolt, doesn't mean you will be anywhere CLOSE to as fast as Bolt, nor any other top level world class sprinter, if you've never TRAINED. Training makes you become much much, not just in terms of the technical parts of the race (launch out of the blocks, acceleration/drive phase etc), but also in terms of actual top speed.

        Thus, there must be MILLIONS of guys out there who were never really any good at soccer, so, they never really played sports seriously, despite being very fast individuals, and never even THOUGHT about giving track and field a try, since I mean, let's face it, only like 0.00000000000001% of all people care/know about track and field (slight exaggeration, but you know what I mean, walk down a sidewalk in central los angeles, and start interviewing physically fit young African American men at random, and see how many of them have ever ran track or even thought about running track, and you'll come across a HUGE number of guys who could clearly go wayyyyyyyyyyy below sub-11 with any amount of training, but have never ran track nor considered running track when you ask them. Track just isn't very popular. I love it, passionately, and so do you, but on a grand scale, across earth's entire current population, you know this is essentially the case.

        Thus, yes, there is most likely a HUGE pool of undiscovered major sprint talent out there, which would be forced out of the woodwork by something drastic like a billion dollar challenge, hypothetically. At least, that's what I think. You can agree to disagree if you want, obviously.

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        • #5
          Re: Hypothetically speaking...

          Originally posted by EZSum
          If you could get a lot more people into the sport it could push existing guys like Bolt faster just to win races. In those circumstance he'd be far more likely to get the right combination of tailwind, weather, reaction times etc. on a quality run as he'd be forced to run to the line much more often. Also, there really might be a bunch of Bolt calibre sprinters in places like Nigeria but we'd need some spectacular social changes there to find out (what good is a billion dollar incentive without the training and the facilities).

          If you really could engage vastly more of the potential sprinters in the world I think you might have roughly the following times for the men's sprints by 2015:

          100m: 9.51
          200m: 18.97
          400m: 42.56

          But then I think Bolt might be responsible for any or all of the above. :P
          Dude, I'd say there's probly around a 30% chance Bolt will run those 100 and 200 meter marks THIS SEASON.

          I mean, Hell, Bolt's time in the 200 in Berlin would've been 19.05 with a 2m/s tailwind. If he lucks out with a good tailwind, he would barely have to be any faster at running than he was last year to go sub 19, if we take that into consideration.

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          • #6
            Re: Hypothetically speaking...

            If nothing else, you'd end up with hundreds and hundreds of 9.80 and 19.70 guys!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Hypothetically speaking...

              It's impossible that Bolt is the fastest human who has ever lived, imo. He has the fastest recorded time and that is all. If we had 2 or 3 billion to choose from maybe, but we got 6.8 billion, so no way Jose'. I would say Bolt is in the final and may get a medal.
              phsstt!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                Well, technically it's not "impossible" for that to be the case, rather, just extremely unlikely.

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                • #9
                  Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                  Originally posted by nicest person ever
                  Well, technically it's not "impossible" for that to be the case, rather, just extremely unlikely.
                  Correct, its not technically impossible that Woody Allen is faster the Bolt,just very unlikely.
                  phsstt!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                    Originally posted by gh
                    If there's somebody faster than Bolt, how has he possibly gone uncovered? Identifying raw speed isn't rocket science. If there's anybody out there even close to as fast as Bolt, I'm pretty sure he'd have already been discovered. That kind of speed, even if not in track, would very quickly become evident on a soccer pitch somewhere.
                    I think you're overestimating the cultural sophistication of vast areas of Africa, Asia, or even S. America where talent (even soccer talent) COULD go completely unnoticed.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                      I don't know if Bolt is the fastest man on Earth but I do know if there is a billion pot at the end of the 100m rainbow, there will be a lot of young men trying and inevitable increased interest in T&F.
                      Go ahead. Do it. I mean, with 50 bill in the till you could make the offer for every standard event and still have half your stash left.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                        Not to even mention the sprint talents that HAVE BEEN/will be discovered who will never go anywhere near their full potential due to not taking training seriously enough/focusing properly/getting distracted/not motivated enough/whatever (Xavier Carter, for example). For all we know, with a billion dollars worth of motivation, there might be a few sprinters already in the sprinting pool that have as much raw talent/ability as Bolt, but never went anywhere near Bolt-level performances due to just not wanting it badly enough or something. You'd be surprised. Put a billion bucks on the table, and they'd get down to business! Who knows what Xavier would've theoretically been able to run in the 200 if he stayed completely focused on track 24/7. His 19.6 was clearly nowhere CLOSE to what he was capable of, considering his horrid running form, and the fact that his average 200m times were wayyyyy way way up high compared to the 19.63, and he just sorta brute force willpowered his way too that time, getting cranky in the outside lane or whatever the fuck happened there, to this day I'm still not sure, lol, but all I know is, with a couple injury free seasons in a row, and a billion bucks of motivation, that dude would be MANY tenths of a second below 19.63. How far below, who knows. Pretty unlikely it would be all the way down to Bolt's level, but you can never really know for sure...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                          In terms of genetics, the genetically perfect sprinter will never be born (unless genetic engineering reaches a level which is far beyond what most of the human population considers ethical). How far bolt is from what is likely to appear natural selection is, as far as I know, impossible to tell at this point.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                            The 100 is a very basic event. There have been too many people running it for too long for someone that is faster than Bolt to be unrecognized. They have been holding this event since there were only 1 Billion people and since that time, 90% or more of all the people that have ever lived have been on earth. Now it is possible that someone that was pretty fast in the past might have been able to train with today's techniques etc and get close to Bolt's speed, but I think that there is almost zero chance (as in an epsilon) that anyone before Bolt has run 100m (unaided) as fast as 9.60

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                            • #15
                              Re: Hypothetically speaking...

                              Originally posted by 26mi235
                              ...and since that time, 90% or more of all the people that have ever lived have been on earth.
                              Where have the other 10% been?

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