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  • Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

    It's a "record": nobody has run faster before April in the US or in the north hemisphere (previous best: 48.60 Angelo Taylor, Florida Relays, March 27, 1999).
    Too fast quite early, or Mr Felix Sanchez has something to worry about?

  • #2
    Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

    Good time for especially for an opener at this time of year (March!)

    I don't think Felix Sanchez will challenged this year though, he just appears too strong for everyone at the moment. Maybe someone will challenge him before the OG, then we will have a close race to look forward to...

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

      Bershawn has always shown the talent - does he have the discipline? I say yes. He'll be at mid-47's at USATF and then the fun begins. He may have tipped his hand too early. Sanchez now has five months to readjust his risk management in order to acccomodate the threat.

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      • #4
        Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

        >Sanchez now has five months to readjust his risk management in
        >order to acccomodate the threat.

        i'm not sure what this means

        how do you "readajust your risk management in
        order to acccomodate the threat" in a sprint ?

        you can't control the other guys in a sprint

        if jackson is in 47.00 shape by OG,the only risk management/accommodation felix is going to have available is begging jackson, " hey buddy,slow down,you're going too fast for me !!!"

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        • #5
          Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

          'Risk Management' in athletics, is deciding how far you're going to push yourself. The down-side is, of course, injury. A marathoner decides to push from 100 to 140 mile weeks. The benefit may be there, but the 'risk' is greater too. In the 400H there is a breaking point that Sanchez need not push past in order to win. He could go 47.0 with his current plans, but if he felt someone else were capable of a 46.7, that would necessitate a new plan, involving more risk.

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          • #6
            Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

            >In the 400H there is a breaking point that Sanchez need not push past in
            >order to win. He could go 47.0 with his current plans, but if he felt someone
            >else were capable of a 46.7, that would necessitate a new plan, involving more
            >risk.

            it still sounds like psychobabble/options trader speel to me

            new plan + more risk ?

            you seem not to put a limit on his ability - whatever the opposition runs,felix will find a way to better it:

            if someone goes 46.5, then will felix have a "newer plan + even more risk"


            & if someone goes 46.0, felix will have "even newer plan + even greater risk"...

            i'm afraid i don't buy this

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

              >i'm afraid i don't buy this

              Actually I thought it was kind of an interesting way to describe the conundrum facing athletes-especially distance runners. When you and your coach make a decision about increasing your training to get a desired result, you may not realize it but you are actually doing sensitivity analysis where you are assigning probabilities to the possibility of an injury vs the potential performance gain.

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              • #8
                Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                Sorry you don't buy it, I really needed the sale (I'm on commission, y'know). In any case Risk Management is a very real issue in most businesses, athletics included. When I turned 40 I wanted to do a master's decathlon. I was nicely training towards a 6000 mark (master's scoring), when I heard a 6500 guy was going to be there. So up went the training time. I ended up getting tendinitis and had to postpone the decathlon a year, when I ratcheted down the training, scored 5800 and was happy with myself.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                  You guys are focusing on the training asepct of things, but there certainly is some "risk management" involved in the 400H when it comes to deciding what stride pattern to use.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                    I think that it's obvious that Felix is probably training to run the fastest time he possibly can at the Olympics. With that in mind the concept of risk management meaning that he will suddenly alter his course of training to shoot for a faster time makes no sense because he already planned to train to run the fastest time possible.

                    That said, I agree with tafnut in the sense that we can be affected by our opponents performances. This early fast time could provide motivation to train harder, focus more, and fine-tune/ re-evaluate his training. Those abilities are part of the nature of great athletes responding to other athletes. If Bershawn had posted a fast time two weeks before the olympics, Felix might feel unable to respond or unprepared to make a legitimate challenge, which could erode his confidence in his ability to comete and lead him to a poorer performance.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                      My thoughts are the rounds of an Olympic Games won't affect Felix. He's such a stong hurdler through the rounds.

                      Jackson spectacular early season time projects well towards the future.

                      I think the question will become his ability to maintain the FAST time through the rounds.

                      I think most is us feel Felix can maintain FAST times.

                      Bershawn will need to prove so.

                      Over 400 meters Bershawn would get my edge over Felix.

                      Should be fascinating to follow as the season unfolds.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                        Steve - I was thinking the same thing when I initially thought about it, but even you said that two weeks would be too little time to 'respond,' but if he's already training as hard as he could, there would be 'no' response. I think athletes constantly reevaluate their training methods in response to known opponents. Training 'harder' is ALWAYS possible, but at what cost. If you don't want to settle for 2nd, then it's all or nothing. Pole vaulters are famous for starting too close to their PR, risking a nh for the win.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                          >I think that it's obvious that Felix is probably training to run the fastest
                          >time he possibly can at the Olympics. With that in mind the concept of risk
                          >management meaning that he will suddenly alter his course of training to shoot
                          >for a faster time makes no sense because he already planned to train to run the
                          >fastest time possible.

                          That said, I agree with tafnut in the sense that we
                          >can be affected by our opponents performances. This early fast time could
                          >provide motivation to train harder, focus more, and fine-tune/ re-evaluate his
                          >training. Those abilities are part of the nature of great athletes responding
                          >to other athletes. If Bershawn had posted a fast time two weeks before the
                          >olympics, Felix might feel unable to respond or unprepared to make a legitimate
                          >challenge, which could erode his confidence in his ability to comete and lead
                          >him to a poorer performance.

                          this was my point exactly:

                          felix is training as goddamn hard as he possibly can with that OG in mind

                          what more/different training can he do that would make him even quicker ? if he knew such a method, he would already be doing it

                          the only thing that can change is that if he feels there is stiff competition out there,he may have a slight extra psycholigical motivation to run quicker ("scared rabitt" scenario)

                          anyhows,i always like to think of ballpark figures that you would take in a Major - shoot a score & go retire to the clubhouse & feel i've got one arm into the sleeve of that Green Jacket or one hand on the Claret Jug

                          for this years OG if i got 47.10 for this - i'd take it to the clubhouse & start opening that champagne

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                            Speaking of 400 hurdlers can we say Happy Birthday to Kim Batten seems like she gave herself an early gift the other wknd at the FSU Relays..............Happy Birhtday Kim.....KLang

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Bershawn Jackson 48.48 at Raleigh Relays

                              If some one popped a spectacularly fast time 2 weeks before the OG, it seems to me, there's very little additional training anyone could possibly do to counter it.

                              I'm curious what the mentality of the elitest athlete is, some one who's the clear favorite for Gold.

                              Doesn't he/she just focus on their specific training, focusing on max performance the end of August.

                              You can only be concerned about yourself, and if you start being overly concerned about others times, isn't the psychological affect more damaging than the reality of the other time.

                              You need to have the supremest of confidence in your ability and your training regimen.

                              Tinkering with that regimen, to me, seems to reflect an element of doubt about that regimen.

                              I do see the arguement in the risk analysis benefit of incrementally more difficult training balenced against the increased possibility of injury.

                              But isn't the calculus already addressed by Sanchez?/

                              And isn't changing that calculus, a sign of weakness?

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