Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

Collapse

Unconfigured Ad Widget

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

    Four sub-13 5k in one year after 11 years? 25 seconds faster than PRE? Probably one or two more soon to go under 13:00. Not impossible to see sub 12:50. There was a time two years ago when 13:10 brought awe.

    Can anyone at the Bible of T&F explain how a country can drop such times in such a short period?

  • #2
    Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

    I'm been following running since the early 1980s and I've read a lot about past running eras. It seems that there has been a running renaissance among high school running in the 2000's ever since Alan Webb. Just look at the top running high school talent since Webb became a big name. There was not the shear number of great high school runners in the 1980's or 1990's that were great in high school and continued to to get better in college and eventually the professional ranks. I graduated from high school in 1986. I ran a 4 x 1,600m relay race one time against Charmichael High School with had the Mastalir twins (Eric/Mark). These two guys were monster runners with incredible talent. I think both ran 4:04 for 1600m and 8:45ish for 3200 m. Yet, after high school they really didn't do anything really. I think I saw one of them run one of the Dream Miles as a rabbit one year. That seems to be the MO for many great high school runners in the 1980's and 1990's. But the 2000's have been a different story with Webb, Rupp, Ritzenhein, Hall, Fernandez, Solinksy, Tegenkamp, and several more as well. I can't remember when the US had so many great runners in their primes or entering their prime all at the same time. And there are several top talents in high school right now like Lukas Verzbicas coming up as well. With all this great running talent continuing to develop into college and professionally it's no surprise that more and more American runners would run fast times.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

      Originally posted by 4:24-miler
      I'm been following running since the early 1980s and I've read a lot about past running eras. It seems that there has been a running renaissance among high school running in the 2000's ever since Alan Webb. Just look at the top running high school talent since Webb became a big name. There was not the shear number of great high school runners in the 1980's or 1990's that were great in high school and continued to to get better in college and eventually the professional ranks. I graduated from high school in 1986. I ran a 4 x 1,600m relay race one time against Charmichael High School with had the Mastalir twins (Eric/Mark). These two guys were monster runners with incredible talent. I think both ran 4:04 for 1600m and 8:45ish for 3200 m. Yet, after high school they really didn't do anything really. I think I saw one of them run one of the Dream Miles as a rabbit one year. That seems to be the MO for many great high school runners in the 1980's and 1990's. But the 2000's have been a different story with Webb, Rupp, Ritzenhein, Hall, Fernandez, Solinksy, Tegenkamp, and several more as well. I can't remember when the US had so many great runners in their primes or entering their prime all at the same time. And there are several top talents in high school right now like Lukas Verzbicas come up as well. With all this great running talent continuing to develop into college and professionally it's no surprised that more and more American runners would run fast times.

      I agree with everything you said. Does anyone have a reason why? There are only a few options:

      1. They are all on drugs.
      2. There was a complete lack of coaching and there was a complete lack of culture that understood that work means success.
      3. There were a lot of runners from the 70's that failed to develop runners other than themselves.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

        I have no idea why the 2000's has seen so many great high school runners blossom. Just last week at the CA State track & field meet eight boys ran under 9:00 for 3,200m (including a sophomore). And 30 high school boys went under 9:00 nation-wide this year! THIRTY! And three more ran under 9:01. That has to be a record. I wonder how much great coaching has played a part in this?

        http://www.milesplit.us/rankings/2010/o ... hs/m/3200m

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

          Some stats

          Number of sub 13:00/year
          • 2006 33
            2003 24
            2005 22
            1999 22*
            2009 20
            2000 17
            1997 17*
            1996 15
            1998 14*
            2010 12 (ongoing)
            2004 12*
            2008 10
            2002 10
            2007 8
            2001 8
            1995 5
            1994 1
            1987 1


          * is with 1 performance indoors

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

            Is this the number of performers or performances?

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

              The reasons probably aren't all that different than that of why a bunch of guys went from running low 13:20's to low 13:10's in the '80s.

              The reason it sticks out in the minds of track fans is because of the 13:00 barrier which is just another number.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                Originally posted by pela2
                Some stats

                Number of sub 13:00/year
                • 2006 33
                  2003 24
                  2005 22
                  1999 22*
                  2009 20
                  2000 17
                  1997 17*
                  1996 15
                  1998 14*
                  2010 12 (ongoing)
                  2004 12*
                  2008 10
                  2002 10
                  2007 8
                  2001 8
                  1995 5
                  1994 1
                  1987 1


                * is with 1 performance indoors
                40 years ago, the average height for white American 18 year old males was about 5'9.

                Right now, the average height for white American 18 year old males is about 6'0, and climbing.

                Now, what on earth does this have to do with distance running, you might ask?

                Well, at first glance, nothing. As you know, there are tons of smaller distance runners who are just as good, if not superior to taller distance runners. In fact, if anything, it's better to be short than to be tall in the distance events.

                Okay, so then why did I mention the thing about the increase in average height of white american 18 year olds, you ask?

                Simple:

                What's important isn't THAT white american 18 year old males average height has increased 3 inches over the past couple generations, what's important is WHY white american 18 year old males average height has increased 3 inches over the past couple generations.

                The increase in average height thing is a sort of measuring stick for the quality of life environment, physiologically speaking, of the population, and can be by far the most dramatically observed in the case of South Korea's population versus North Korea's population:

                The most recent adult male generation of North Korea is now 2.5 inches shorter than the most recent adult generation of South Korea.

                Prior to 50 years ago, the average heights of the North and South populations of Korea were exactly identical.

                The reason for this large discrepancy in average height between the North Korean and South Korean populations, which has come about over the course of the past 50 years, is the fact that North Korea has essentially regressed to the stone age, as far as the conditions its population lived in during this time period, whereas South Korea is the exact opposite, being one of the most advanced countries on the planet in terms of science/technology, medicine, nutrition, lifestyle etc, far exceeding even us here in the U.S., roughly on par with the other most super-advanced countries such as the countries of Scandinavia and Japan and such.

                So, despite their genepool starting out as one, identical Korean population, over the course of the past 3 generations, as the population was split into the stone age North, and the ultramodern South, the average South Korean specimen has thrived by comparison, being much healthier on average, living much longer lifespans on average, and having much taller average height than their North Korean counterparts.

                Thus, the same way, the 3 inch height difference between the average white american young adult male of 40 years ago versus the average white american young adult male of right now, is an indication of the same sort of thing.

                Now, of course, the results are skewed when referring to the "average healthiness" or such of the average young adult white American right now when we take the large overweight/obese portion of this population into account, of course, but that portion of the population does not come into play in regards to stuff like distance running, because top level high school/college distance runners do not belong to that portion of the population, obviously.

                But still, you are wondering, what does this height thing have to do with them running faster times in the 3200, or the 5k or whatever, given that being taller isn't necessarily better, or a good thing, as far as distance running goes?

                Well, like I said, the height thing isn't the point. The point is what it MEANS. It MEANS that the average physical specimen of white american young adults in America right now are physically superior in every way on average to the average physical specimen of white american young adults in America 40 years ago (when ignoring the overweight/obese portion of the population that is, which we are in this instance, since they don't come into play as far as top level high school/college distance runners go)

                So, one of the side effects of this difference between the current crop of white american young adults compared to the crop of white american young adults of 40 years ago in addition to longer average lifespan, and higher average height, is, of course, greater average physical speed/endurance ability/potential for the current crop compared to the one of 40 years ago. And THAT is the part that comes into play, for distance running in America. THAT's why there are so many more faster American distance runners now than 40 years ago. That they are just physically superior, on average, to the crop of american young adults of 40 years ago in terms of raw physical quality on average in regards to speed/endurance ability, as a population.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                  Originally posted by DaveW
                  There was a time two years ago when 13:10 brought awe.
                  Therin lies part of the issue with the previous lull: too low of expectations
                  Fire Impossible.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                    "Right now, the average height for white American 18 year old males is about 6'0, and climbing."

                    I do not believe this 'statistic' and have seen no solid evidence that it is true. A three-inch change from when I was that old has not occurred in the samples of the cohort that I have observed. Can you cite a reputable source? Are there height-growth charts showing this?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                      Has Mr. Lagat --- an American athlete who happens to be black and who switched living in poorer-standard Kenya to better quality of life USA --- increased in height since his arrival and permanent residency?
                      Fire Impossible.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                        Originally posted by DaveW

                        Can anyone at the Bible of T&F explain how a country can drop such times in such a short period?
                        A country did not drop such times. Four individuals did. Four individuals with different backgrounds, experiences, physical gifts, personalities, work ethics, and on and on.

                        There have been others that could have gone under thirteen before these guys, but, again, they had their own stories and some of those included injuries, focus on other events, lack of opportunity, etc.

                        There is no pattern here, just athletes doing what athletes have been doing for years. Getting better.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                          Originally posted by nicest person ever

                          Well, like I said, the height thing isn't the point. The point is what it MEANS. It MEANS that the average physical specimen of white american young adults in America right now are physically superior in every way on average to the average physical specimen of white american young adults in America 40 years ago (when ignoring the overweight/obese portion of the population that is, which we are in this instance, since they don't come into play as far as top level high school/college distance runners go)
                          I see at least two fundamental weaknesses in this line of thought. First, the improvement in physical conditioning (if it exists) should have happened more or less continuously over 40 years. The improvement in distance running records has not been constant, but rather series of "spurt" followed by years of stagnation. If the physical conditioning is the primary factor, then the record improvement should also be equally constant.

                          Second, this kind of improvement in physical conditioning (if it exists) should have happened in all developed countries. However, the distance running records in Europe or Japan has been stagant for a few decades. If the physical conditioning is the primary factor, then the record improvement should also be equally constant across space (at least among developed countries).

                          I also question the basic premise that the AVERAGE fitness level of American youth has improved. I think the top 5-10% are fitter than ever. But that may simply mean they are farther apart from the mean than they (or rather their counterparts in the previous generation)used to be. I don't know if the mean or the median is improving in any significant way. I also don't know whether the variance is increasing at the bottom end as well.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                            Culture can and does change more quickly than physical attributes. Running Times did an article on this a year or so ago, and talked about the attitudes generally attributed to the "millenial generation" being very well aligned with distance running.

                            I would also not underestimate the power of the Internet and LetsRun.com. The former lets kids see exactly where they stand as compared to the rest of the country in a way you used to have to travel to get. When I ran, we went from Toledo all the way to Knoxville for the Volunteer Classic every year and we had a very different idea of what "good" was than any of the other local teams and our work ethic adjusted accordingly. But now, when a local kid threw 202', he could look up his national standing at Dyestat immediately. Traditional media coverage of track, which used to give kids a similar frame of reference, saw a steady decline since the mid-80s and the Internet didn't pick up the slack until the late 90s.

                            Also, the same time period of the late 80s through the late 90s saw a widespread attitude of "don't train so hard". The Johnson brothers spread the gospel, if you will, of how much BS that is.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Reason for Sub 13:00 5K

                              Originally posted by pickle47
                              Originally posted by DaveW

                              Can anyone at the Bible of T&F explain how a country can drop such times in such a short period?
                              A country did not drop such times. Four individuals did. Four individuals with different backgrounds, experiences, physical gifts, personalities, work ethics, and on and on.

                              There have been others that could have gone under thirteen before these guys, but, again, they had their own stories and some of those included injuries, focus on other events, lack of opportunity, etc.

                              There is no pattern here, just athletes doing what athletes have been doing for years. Getting better.
                              Lagat has regularly beaten 12:50 guys in major races (e.g., WAF Finals), so that one is a no brainer.

                              Ritz and Teg ran 3/5 at World Junior XC behind ... K Bekele.

                              Solinsky (almost?) set a record in winning margin at Footlocker and then followed that up with numerous NCAA titles with some serious finishes from 1000 to 1600m out and has been pushing the boundaries down bit by bit. There are several others that might well add their names - Webb who ran 3:53 as a HS kid and Rupp who has AmJr records, German F who would have gotten the Jr record if born a few days later and won the NCAA 1500 as a young freshman. LV in HS could readily develop into another candidate if he goes that route instead of the Triathlon (and there are some other guys as well).

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X