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There is a Front Page link with some dude citing a long-term limit of 9.01 in the 100m (but he then goes on to say, with a 9.01, the incentives would be so strong to get and 8 that it would probably fall another 0.02.
This guy is allowing this record to be set given the most propitious circumstances [although I am ruling out changes in the rules, including PEDs, and 'genetic engineering']. Given that Bolt has already hit the 9.5s and might conceivably hit the 9.4xs (basic), there are some adjustments to this level. First of all, reaction time down to 0.10 (it is feasible and if we continue the trend of start times, they might ease it back down to a 'if faster, it really is cheating' ballpark; this would cut another 0.04 or so from Bolt's mark. Then give a 2.0mps wind, cutting another 0.11 or maybe even 0.12 at that speed. Now put it in Mexico City and get another 0.1+ (maybe put it in Bogota, or even higher, and get 0.15 more more). Add these together and we are in the 9.2 ballpark and we are not yet at the end of civilization. [Of course, this guy was so up-to-date that he was using the 9.69 mark, and I do not think that this was written 13 months ago.]
This guy is allowing this record to be set given the most propitious circumstances [although I am ruling out changes in the rules, including PEDs, and 'genetic engineering']. Given that Bolt has already hit the 9.5s and might conceivably hit the 9.4xs (basic), there are some adjustments to this level. First of all, reaction time down to 0.10 (it is feasible and if we continue the trend of start times, they might ease it back down to a 'if faster, it really is cheating' ballpark; this would cut another 0.04 or so from Bolt's mark. Then give a 2.0mps wind, cutting another 0.11 or maybe even 0.12 at that speed. Now put it in Mexico City and get another 0.1+ (maybe put it in Bogota, or even higher, and get 0.15 more more). Add these together and we are in the 9.2 ballpark and we are not yet at the end of civilization. [Of course, this guy was so up-to-date that he was using the 9.69 mark, and I do not think that this was written 13 months ago.]
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