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  • Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

    Lukas Verbicas is running in the New Balance mile race tomorrow night against an elite mile field. Can Verbicas dip below 4:00 and become just the 5th high school boy to do so? His PR is 4:04.38 which he ran last summer in the Jim Ryan High School Dream Mile.

    http://www.boston.com/sports/schools/ar ... ?page=full

  • #2
    Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

    My guess is 'not yet' (esp. on indoors' restricted turns), but it would NOT surprise me if he does it in June!

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    • #3
      Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

      Originally posted by Marlow
      My guess is 'not yet' (esp. on indoors' restricted turns), but it would NOT surprise me if he does it in June!
      Any predictions? 4:01? 4:02?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

        Originally posted by 4:24-miler
        Originally posted by Marlow
        My guess is 'not yet' (esp. on indoors' restricted turns), but it would NOT surprise me if he does it in June!
        Any predictions? 4:01? 4:02?
        4:04 now would be worth 3:58 in June, so I'll go with that.
        I'm guessing he's still in a heavy mileage cycle right now. He'll be mini-peaked for this though, hence my optimism.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

          Originally posted by Marlow
          ..
          4:04 now would be worth 3:58 in June, so I'll go with that....
          why, because that's what Webb did? Here's the 5 fastest indoor preps ever, and the differential to what they ran outdoors that year:


          3:59.86 Alan Webb -6.43
          4:02.7 Thom Hunt +3.9
          4:05.50 Alex Hatz +2.59
          4:06.6 Vince Cartier +4.4
          4:07.10 Michael Stember -0.72

          History at the top end, therefore, suggests that Verzbicas could well end up slower outdoors.

          Or, he could be Jim Ryun and improve by 11.9 seconds!

          In short, there's no "would be worth" that is remotely calculable

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          • #6
            Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

            Originally posted by gh
            Originally posted by Marlow
            ..
            4:04 now would be worth 3:58 in June, so I'll go with that....
            why, because that's what Webb did? Here's the 5 fastest indoor preps ever, and the differential to what they ran outdoors that year:
            3:59.86 Alan Webb -6.43
            4:02.7 Thom Hunt +3.9
            4:05.50 Alex Hatz +2.59
            4:06.6 Vince Cartier +4.4
            4:07.10 Michael Stember -0.72
            History at the top end, therefore, suggests that Verzbicas could well end up slower outdoors.

            Or, he could be Jim Ryun and improve by 11.9 seconds!

            In short, there's no "would be worth" that is remotely calculable
            That's too generalized an analysis IMO. My 'take' is that he WILL break 4 outdoors, but he's not in a position to do that now. Has nothing to do with what others have done.

            If I'm right, should we chalk it up to coincidence? If I'm wrong (and my specificity has virtually guaranteed it), I accept full responsibility. If I'm right(ish), . . . .

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

              One issue is how well suited, biomechanically, each individual is to the indoor track. From LV's indoor 5000 of a year or so ago, I'd say he's a natural... If this holds water at all, his indoor mile PR could be relatively closer to his outdoor potential than with some others....

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                Originally posted by gh
                Originally posted by Marlow
                ..
                4:04 now would be worth 3:58 in June, so I'll go with that....
                why, because that's what Webb did? Here's the 5 fastest indoor preps ever, and the differential to what they ran outdoors that year:


                3:59.86 Alan Webb -6.43
                4:02.7 Thom Hunt +3.9
                4:05.50 Alex Hatz +2.59
                4:06.6 Vince Cartier +4.4
                4:07.10 Michael Stember -0.72

                History at the top end, therefore, suggests that Verzbicas could well end up slower outdoors.

                Or, he could be Jim Ryun and improve by 11.9 seconds!

                In short, there's no "would be worth" that is remotely calculable
                Selection bias in the use of times. Take the best 10 marks overall and then measure the differential of those ten runners. NOT the top ten outdoors or the top ten indoors. Also, It might be acceptable to apply the estimated differential and then select the top ten individual based on the adjusted times and see what the differential is (it might decrease or increase). Also, ten is a small sample even at this level. In addition, since the 'indoors' cover two types of tracks (flat 200s and tight banked tracks vs oversized tracks and banked 200 tracks; there are adjustment factors for the two that could be used.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                  Does anyone know if this mile race will be televised locally or nationally? I'd love to watch this race on TV but I live way out in California.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                    of course there's a "selection bias"; we're trying to put Verzbicas into a very small group that has already defined itself as being overachievers.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                      Is anyone else kinda surprised that 4:07 gets you 5th on the all-time indoor list? I thought a few more guys had ducked under that, but what do I know?!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                        I think the answer to that—at last a big part of it— is simply that very few preps until recent years had the chance to run on a big banked track indoors in combination with a fast field.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                          Originally posted by gh
                          I think the answer to that—at last a big part of it— is simply that very few preps until recent years had the chance to run on a big banked track indoors in combination with a fast field.
                          Absolutely. With these better chances, we may see a few more under 4:05 in the near future.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                            Originally posted by kuha
                            One issue is how well suited, biomechanically, each individual is to the indoor track. From LV's indoor 5000 of a year or so ago, I'd say he's a natural... If this holds water at all, his indoor mile PR could be relatively closer to his outdoor potential than with some others....
                            kuha -- Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean here? (No disagreement implied -- just curious about what you mean in general, and what you saw in LV -- I've never seen him run). Thx!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Verzbicas' quest for sub 4:00

                              Originally posted by DrJay
                              Is anyone else kinda surprised that 4:07 gets you 5th on the all-time indoor list? I thought a few more guys had ducked under that, but what do I know?!
                              In 1971, David Merrick ran 4;05 on a slightly oversized track with tight turns.

                              Merrick also ran 8;43 on the Illini track, 8;51 on a flat 12 lap/mile track and 13;37 for 3 miles on a legal facility.

                              Interestingly, Verzbicas is not the fastest high school 2 miler from either of the high schools he has attended.

                              Too, Merrick's indoor 3 mile converts to at least 14;07 for 5000 meters (Verzbicas ran 14;18).

                              Comment

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