Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

[Jon]

Was looking over Brigitte Foster's performances (don't ask why) and noticed something strange. Have a look at her results from the first round of the 100mH at the Jamaican national champs over the years (all held in Kingston):

2000
13.06, -3.0m/s

2001
13.05, -3.8m/s

2003
13.08, -3.8m/s

2005
13.17, -3.6m/s

It's not often that athletes compete in winds as strong as that, but for it to happen in four years out of five at the same venue in the exact same event (heats of 100H), what are the chances of that?! Something funny is going on....

[tafnut]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

Sometimes when a guy hits a big PR, you just know that might be it. Lister at the OT was obvious, but when we discussed who was the next big thing in the 110's, I was thinking Doucoure and Liu would be lucky to PR in '05 given their precipitous drops in the Games - and they are still mere pups.

[gh]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

I'm reminded of stats like this every time somebody predicts that since he PRed this year that Xiang Liu is now a lock to take the WR even lower. Not saying he won't, cuz he has a world of talent, but one just never knows when the ceiling has been reached. When Allen Johnson ran 12.92 at age 25, who would have bet against his never running as fast again?

[HurdlinDub]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

>Can anybody think of anybody else who--since we went to 100th-second
>timing--has recorded a PR and then matched it the next two years? Hurdler
>Dawane Wallace ran 13.22 in '00, then equalled that in both '01 and '02.

Bump. The metronomical marathoner thread reminded me of this one by GH earlier in the year. Dawane Wallace did indeed end 2004 with an SB of 13.22 so now has run his personal best of 13.22 in FOUR different years.

[HurdlinDub]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

would you believe dawane wallace ran 13.22 again in modesto yesterday - that was a fast race overall so it's not totally out of the question that it could end up his season's best again!!!

[Jon]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

>No, Morrison ran 13.38 in '92; but after 13.24s in '93 and '94, she did run
>13.25 (and 13.05 at altitude) in '95


I've just checked and you're right..

The 2001 ATFS annual is wrong!

[gh]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

No, Morrison ran 13.38 in '92; but after 13.24s in '93 and '94, she did run 13.25 (and 13.05 at altitude) in '95

[Jon]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

Melissa Morrison was stuck on 13.24 for three years ('92, '93, '94).

[Jon]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

Ato Boldon has (kinda) done it... he ran 9.86 four times between two seasons - twice in 1998 and twice in 1999. Does that count? He's lacking in the yearly span, but he has done it 4 times to make up for it!

[sl]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

What about Tim Montgomery last season? He had plenty of 10.3 and 10.2 races, but four of the five times he managed to break 10.10, he ran 10.04 and never faster.

Not the same thing GH is asking about, but suggests to me the same idea of an athlete apparently running up against his (temporary) limit.

[Jon]

Re: Statistical Anomaly--Dawane Wallace

Yep - Joseph Batangdon. In 1999, he ran 20.31 which he matched in 2000 and 2001. It remains his PB.

[gh]

Can anybody think of anybody else who--since we went to 100th-second timing--has recorded a PR and then matched it the next two years? Hurdler Dawane Wallace ran 13.22 in '00, then equalled that in both '01 and '02.

And for you numerologists out there who like to look for weird signs, "2" is obviously his number, since his seasonal best in '03 was then 13.32 and this season so far it's 13.42.