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Another of those loooong posts I write when I want to get my mind off something... :wink:
Seems most events have one or more new talents challenging the established people at the top. Nothing unusual with that, of course
Some more will surely emerge in the coming 2 months but I collected those who already have.
m100 - Mullings and Makusha
Mullings seems to have discovered a whole new level this year to become a serious global threat. Makusha of course has a totally different background...
m200 - ??
Ashmeade and Salaam have definitely improved, but haven't yet established themselves as consistent top guys. Dodson, the surprise 3rd at USATF, is in a very similar situation. Lemaitre seems to have improved a bit too but that wasn't really unexpected...
m400 - Bartholomew and McQuay
Two 21-year-olds occupy #1 and #2 on the 2011 top list. Both have of course been recognized talents but it's one thing to be talented and quite another to actually jump to the top so fast.
Both could easily medal at Daegu - if they can maintain their current form...
m800 - Kosencha and Kszczot
The winner of the WYC is having his age contested by a whole heap of Americans, who knows how accurately. I'll take any rapidly improving 1:44 guy, regardless of just what his age is! Meanwhile, the Kszcz-man is developing steadily... I suppose David Mutinda Mutua could also be listed, but his only DL appearance wasn't all that convincing.
m1500 - Shaween, Ndiku and Centrowitz
Three people with totally different backgrounds. One 25-year-old Saudi Arabian who has been a recognized third-tier miler for quite some time. One junior whose ascendancy has been far from unexpected. Finally, an American who looks poised to outachieve his daddy.
m5000 - Isiah Koech
Not everyone buys the claim he's 17, but when you suddenly go 12:53.29i should we really care?
World Champion 1993 - Ismael Kirui
World Champion 2003 - Eliud Kipchoge
World Champion 2011 - ?
m10000 - Farah and Rupp
OK, so Rupp hasn't really proved himself at this distance yet, but I'm listing him here as that's where his best international chances probably lie - his 5K second place yesterday notwithstanding.
m110H - none
An absolutely great year for this event, but it's not new kids doing those fireworks...
m400H - van Zyl
He's gone from a talent who never really fulfilled expectations to #1, though this event is so random that it's hard to promise him Daegu gold even if he can maintain form.
Elsewhere, Jeshua Anderson has taken a nice chunk off his PB, and I hear a couple Brits are developing nicely.
mSteeple - Yego
At the ripe young age of 19, he's improved his PB from 8:19 to 8:07 and might well make the Kenyan team for World Champs.
mHJ - whole top 4 of current list
Williams and Dmitrik have been around for years but are now definitely stronger than ever. Demyanyuk isn't a new kid either but has been very, very inconsistent and seems to have developed in that regard. Barshim, barely 20, is already a 2.35 jumper... while this is maybe THE event where junior stars tend to stop following the expected curve, things are certainly looking great for him.
mLJ - ??
Fireworks everywhere, often by young guys (Claye, Menkov, Manyonga, Cáceres, Forbes)... but hard to single anybody out. Tomlinson?????
mTJ - Taylor, Claye, Revé
So it's not unexpected, but Taylor and Claye are definitely top guys now... yet a 19-year-old Cuban has been capable of matching their wind-legal best.
All three, though, have yet to prove themselves in international senior competition.
mPV - Wojciechowski
Just to keep Powell happy, even though he's been unable to duplicate his 586 indoor form.
mSP - Armstrong
Just to keep mojo happy just kidding. When an Oly 4th placer improves like that, it has to be worthy of note.
mJT - Avan and Tarabin
Sirmais isn't quite there yet - wake me up when he can throw ~85 in a major international meet. OK, so Avan and Tarabin can't do that either, but they're still much more consistent.
mHT - Johnson
I'd have given you quite meaty odds if you told me in say February that Kibwé Johnson would break 80m (at least) twice this year... at an age of (nearly) 30 he has finally become a contender.
Indeed, it seems the horrible overall level in this event right now has inspired other older guys too.
mDT - Marcell
Yup, the at least somewhat consistent Czech guy and not Lawrence Okoye. Sorry mump.
mDec - Knobel and Erinš
OK, maybe Eaton too, but he's such a gigantic non-surprise it's hard to forget he hasn't been around for ages.
(Erinš who? The new Latvian record holder, who has improved his lifetime best by a nice & succulent 351 points to an internationally noteworthy 8312.)
walks - ask our resident walk guy. I'm not as uninterested in walks as some here - I love watching a good 50k - but that doesn't mean I can tell who deserves to be noted even if you give me a top list to look at...
w100 - Calvert and Levy
One has not only improved from 11.19 to 11.05 but become somewhat consistent at the European circuit. The other somehow placed 3rd at the ultra-strong Jamaican champs, and since I'd never heard of her before that presumably counts as a step up.
w200 - Solomon, Duncan and Tarmoh
Solomon's been Not Quite There for a long time, now it's looking as if she might be at the top (though it will take some international meets to prove it...) Duncan... when a 19-year-old has 4 times in that year's top 15 in mid-July she's doing something right. US certainly has meaty depth here.
w400 - nah.
The whole event is lame right now, not just the new girls but the established girls as well.
w800 - Santiusti
Wins in strong Euro meets do quite a lot to convince me, and that's what she has now and never really had before. Of course, she also has a shiny new PB of 1:59.00 and might well improve it... could be a surprise medalist in Daegu if she keeps this up.
w1500 - Uceny
Some people are already talking of her as a Daegu winner or a medalist at the very least. Maybe not... but two consecutive DL wins are a definite step up.
Edit: nevets is right about Arigawi, I was probably suffering from recentism
w5000 - Mercy Cherono and Genzebe Dibaba
Two talents who used to fight each other and are now fighting the best. So far they're losing, but the margin isn't big.
w10000 - can't say
Not enough meets.
w100H - Carruthers, Urech and Nia Ali
Carruthers was close to this form 7 years ago (!), but it's now that she's become a legit WC gold contender. Urech is developing steadily and is already quite close to the top. Ali took a nice 0.41 off her PB during a NCAA-dominating season and could well file off another bit some time soon.
w400H - Hejnová
Some people seem to be doubting her WL, but nobody can doubt she's improving rapidly. Regular 53s is serious mutton.
wSteeple - Assefa, Adamu and Njoroge
The former has been there for a couple years but has achieved a new kind of consistency. Njoroge, though actually older by a year, has improved her PB by ten seconds this year already. Adamu has been toying with the WJR... but something tells me this is one event where we should be really for an entirely different set of faces on the Daegu podium. (If actually forced to guess, Habiba Ghribi will take the WC gold. You heard it here first!)
wHJ - none
wLJ - DeLoach
It's not the 699i or the 697, not that those aren't a huge improvement on her pre-2011 best. It's the not totally collapsing when you put a new environment around her.
wPV - Bleasdale
From WJC bronze medalist to a legit 470 jumper is not so much a step as a giant leap.
wTJ - Papahrístou, Ibargüen and Demut
The Colombian has been ultra-consistent, while the Greek has one big mark... the German is somewhere in between. All have yet to prove theirselves on the global stage.
wSP - Camarena-Williams
She's improved her best by 68cm this year already, and seems quite consistent at these new heights... how long will that AR last?
wDT - Thurmond
So she hasn't been even close to her PB. Not the important thing in an event where consistency is king and it's non-windy results that matter - until this year, nobody's really thought of her as a possible WC medalist.
wJT - none
Muze seems to be coming along nicely but will need another couple years to get there.
wHT - Heidler
She's gone from #1 to #1 - if that counts as a step up is unclear.
wHep - Nana Djimou
OK, so she was 7th at World Champs two years ago - don't say 6400 for 3rd at Götzis isn't still a step up. Schippers is also developing nicely...
So I went on for way too long. No, you can't have a one-sentence summary. And yup I forgot the marathons and am too lazy to add them...
Seems most events have one or more new talents challenging the established people at the top. Nothing unusual with that, of course
Some more will surely emerge in the coming 2 months but I collected those who already have.m100 - Mullings and Makusha
Mullings seems to have discovered a whole new level this year to become a serious global threat. Makusha of course has a totally different background...
m200 - ??
Ashmeade and Salaam have definitely improved, but haven't yet established themselves as consistent top guys. Dodson, the surprise 3rd at USATF, is in a very similar situation. Lemaitre seems to have improved a bit too but that wasn't really unexpected...
m400 - Bartholomew and McQuay
Two 21-year-olds occupy #1 and #2 on the 2011 top list. Both have of course been recognized talents but it's one thing to be talented and quite another to actually jump to the top so fast.
Both could easily medal at Daegu - if they can maintain their current form...
m800 - Kosencha and Kszczot
The winner of the WYC is having his age contested by a whole heap of Americans, who knows how accurately. I'll take any rapidly improving 1:44 guy, regardless of just what his age is! Meanwhile, the Kszcz-man is developing steadily... I suppose David Mutinda Mutua could also be listed, but his only DL appearance wasn't all that convincing.
m1500 - Shaween, Ndiku and Centrowitz
Three people with totally different backgrounds. One 25-year-old Saudi Arabian who has been a recognized third-tier miler for quite some time. One junior whose ascendancy has been far from unexpected. Finally, an American who looks poised to outachieve his daddy.
m5000 - Isiah Koech
Not everyone buys the claim he's 17, but when you suddenly go 12:53.29i should we really care?
World Champion 1993 - Ismael Kirui
World Champion 2003 - Eliud Kipchoge
World Champion 2011 - ?
m10000 - Farah and Rupp
OK, so Rupp hasn't really proved himself at this distance yet, but I'm listing him here as that's where his best international chances probably lie - his 5K second place yesterday notwithstanding.
m110H - none
An absolutely great year for this event, but it's not new kids doing those fireworks...
m400H - van Zyl
He's gone from a talent who never really fulfilled expectations to #1, though this event is so random that it's hard to promise him Daegu gold even if he can maintain form.
Elsewhere, Jeshua Anderson has taken a nice chunk off his PB, and I hear a couple Brits are developing nicely.
mSteeple - Yego
At the ripe young age of 19, he's improved his PB from 8:19 to 8:07 and might well make the Kenyan team for World Champs.
mHJ - whole top 4 of current list
Williams and Dmitrik have been around for years but are now definitely stronger than ever. Demyanyuk isn't a new kid either but has been very, very inconsistent and seems to have developed in that regard. Barshim, barely 20, is already a 2.35 jumper... while this is maybe THE event where junior stars tend to stop following the expected curve, things are certainly looking great for him.
mLJ - ??
Fireworks everywhere, often by young guys (Claye, Menkov, Manyonga, Cáceres, Forbes)... but hard to single anybody out. Tomlinson?????
mTJ - Taylor, Claye, Revé
So it's not unexpected, but Taylor and Claye are definitely top guys now... yet a 19-year-old Cuban has been capable of matching their wind-legal best.
All three, though, have yet to prove themselves in international senior competition.
mPV - Wojciechowski
Just to keep Powell happy, even though he's been unable to duplicate his 586 indoor form.
mSP - Armstrong
Just to keep mojo happy
just kidding. When an Oly 4th placer improves like that, it has to be worthy of note.mJT - Avan and Tarabin
Sirmais isn't quite there yet - wake me up when he can throw ~85 in a major international meet. OK, so Avan and Tarabin can't do that either, but they're still much more consistent.
mHT - Johnson
I'd have given you quite meaty odds if you told me in say February that Kibwé Johnson would break 80m (at least) twice this year... at an age of (nearly) 30 he has finally become a contender.
Indeed, it seems the horrible overall level in this event right now has inspired other older guys too.
mDT - Marcell
Yup, the at least somewhat consistent Czech guy and not Lawrence Okoye. Sorry mump.
mDec - Knobel and Erinš
OK, maybe Eaton too, but he's such a gigantic non-surprise it's hard to forget he hasn't been around for ages.
(Erinš who? The new Latvian record holder, who has improved his lifetime best by a nice & succulent 351 points to an internationally noteworthy 8312.)
walks - ask our resident walk guy. I'm not as uninterested in walks as some here - I love watching a good 50k - but that doesn't mean I can tell who deserves to be noted even if you give me a top list to look at...
w100 - Calvert and Levy
One has not only improved from 11.19 to 11.05 but become somewhat consistent at the European circuit. The other somehow placed 3rd at the ultra-strong Jamaican champs, and since I'd never heard of her before that presumably counts as a step up.
w200 - Solomon, Duncan and Tarmoh
Solomon's been Not Quite There for a long time, now it's looking as if she might be at the top (though it will take some international meets to prove it...) Duncan... when a 19-year-old has 4 times in that year's top 15 in mid-July she's doing something right. US certainly has meaty depth here.
w400 - nah.
The whole event is lame right now, not just the new girls but the established girls as well.
w800 - Santiusti
Wins in strong Euro meets do quite a lot to convince me, and that's what she has now and never really had before. Of course, she also has a shiny new PB of 1:59.00 and might well improve it... could be a surprise medalist in Daegu if she keeps this up.
w1500 - Uceny
Some people are already talking of her as a Daegu winner or a medalist at the very least. Maybe not... but two consecutive DL wins are a definite step up.
Edit: nevets is right about Arigawi, I was probably suffering from recentism
w5000 - Mercy Cherono and Genzebe Dibaba
Two talents who used to fight each other and are now fighting the best. So far they're losing, but the margin isn't big.
w10000 - can't say
Not enough meets.
w100H - Carruthers, Urech and Nia Ali
Carruthers was close to this form 7 years ago (!), but it's now that she's become a legit WC gold contender. Urech is developing steadily and is already quite close to the top. Ali took a nice 0.41 off her PB during a NCAA-dominating season and could well file off another bit some time soon.
w400H - Hejnová
Some people seem to be doubting her WL, but nobody can doubt she's improving rapidly. Regular 53s is serious mutton.
wSteeple - Assefa, Adamu and Njoroge
The former has been there for a couple years but has achieved a new kind of consistency. Njoroge, though actually older by a year, has improved her PB by ten seconds this year already. Adamu has been toying with the WJR... but something tells me this is one event where we should be really for an entirely different set of faces on the Daegu podium. (If actually forced to guess, Habiba Ghribi will take the WC gold. You heard it here first!)
wHJ - none
wLJ - DeLoach
It's not the 699i or the 697, not that those aren't a huge improvement on her pre-2011 best. It's the not totally collapsing when you put a new environment around her.
wPV - Bleasdale
From WJC bronze medalist to a legit 470 jumper is not so much a step as a giant leap.
wTJ - Papahrístou, Ibargüen and Demut
The Colombian has been ultra-consistent, while the Greek has one big mark... the German is somewhere in between. All have yet to prove theirselves on the global stage.
wSP - Camarena-Williams
She's improved her best by 68cm this year already, and seems quite consistent at these new heights... how long will that AR last?
wDT - Thurmond
So she hasn't been even close to her PB. Not the important thing in an event where consistency is king and it's non-windy results that matter - until this year, nobody's really thought of her as a possible WC medalist.
wJT - none
Muze seems to be coming along nicely but will need another couple years to get there.
wHT - Heidler
She's gone from #1 to #1 - if that counts as a step up is unclear.
wHep - Nana Djimou
OK, so she was 7th at World Champs two years ago - don't say 6400 for 3rd at Götzis isn't still a step up. Schippers is also developing nicely...
So I went on for way too long. No, you can't have a one-sentence summary. And yup I forgot the marathons and am too lazy to add them...
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