Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

Collapse

Unconfigured Ad Widget

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

    Another of those loooong posts I write when I want to get my mind off something... :wink:

    Seems most events have one or more new talents challenging the established people at the top. Nothing unusual with that, of course Some more will surely emerge in the coming 2 months but I collected those who already have.

    m100 - Mullings and Makusha

    Mullings seems to have discovered a whole new level this year to become a serious global threat. Makusha of course has a totally different background...

    m200 - ??

    Ashmeade and Salaam have definitely improved, but haven't yet established themselves as consistent top guys. Dodson, the surprise 3rd at USATF, is in a very similar situation. Lemaitre seems to have improved a bit too but that wasn't really unexpected...

    m400 - Bartholomew and McQuay

    Two 21-year-olds occupy #1 and #2 on the 2011 top list. Both have of course been recognized talents but it's one thing to be talented and quite another to actually jump to the top so fast.
    Both could easily medal at Daegu - if they can maintain their current form...

    m800 - Kosencha and Kszczot

    The winner of the WYC is having his age contested by a whole heap of Americans, who knows how accurately. I'll take any rapidly improving 1:44 guy, regardless of just what his age is! Meanwhile, the Kszcz-man is developing steadily... I suppose David Mutinda Mutua could also be listed, but his only DL appearance wasn't all that convincing.

    m1500 - Shaween, Ndiku and Centrowitz

    Three people with totally different backgrounds. One 25-year-old Saudi Arabian who has been a recognized third-tier miler for quite some time. One junior whose ascendancy has been far from unexpected. Finally, an American who looks poised to outachieve his daddy.

    m5000 - Isiah Koech

    Not everyone buys the claim he's 17, but when you suddenly go 12:53.29i should we really care?

    World Champion 1993 - Ismael Kirui
    World Champion 2003 - Eliud Kipchoge
    World Champion 2011 - ?

    m10000 - Farah and Rupp

    OK, so Rupp hasn't really proved himself at this distance yet, but I'm listing him here as that's where his best international chances probably lie - his 5K second place yesterday notwithstanding.

    m110H - none

    An absolutely great year for this event, but it's not new kids doing those fireworks...

    m400H - van Zyl

    He's gone from a talent who never really fulfilled expectations to #1, though this event is so random that it's hard to promise him Daegu gold even if he can maintain form.

    Elsewhere, Jeshua Anderson has taken a nice chunk off his PB, and I hear a couple Brits are developing nicely.

    mSteeple - Yego

    At the ripe young age of 19, he's improved his PB from 8:19 to 8:07 and might well make the Kenyan team for World Champs.

    mHJ - whole top 4 of current list

    Williams and Dmitrik have been around for years but are now definitely stronger than ever. Demyanyuk isn't a new kid either but has been very, very inconsistent and seems to have developed in that regard. Barshim, barely 20, is already a 2.35 jumper... while this is maybe THE event where junior stars tend to stop following the expected curve, things are certainly looking great for him.

    mLJ - ??

    Fireworks everywhere, often by young guys (Claye, Menkov, Manyonga, Cáceres, Forbes)... but hard to single anybody out. Tomlinson?????

    mTJ - Taylor, Claye, Revé

    So it's not unexpected, but Taylor and Claye are definitely top guys now... yet a 19-year-old Cuban has been capable of matching their wind-legal best.

    All three, though, have yet to prove themselves in international senior competition.

    mPV - Wojciechowski

    Just to keep Powell happy, even though he's been unable to duplicate his 586 indoor form.

    mSP - Armstrong

    Just to keep mojo happy just kidding. When an Oly 4th placer improves like that, it has to be worthy of note.

    mJT - Avan and Tarabin

    Sirmais isn't quite there yet - wake me up when he can throw ~85 in a major international meet. OK, so Avan and Tarabin can't do that either, but they're still much more consistent.

    mHT - Johnson

    I'd have given you quite meaty odds if you told me in say February that Kibwé Johnson would break 80m (at least) twice this year... at an age of (nearly) 30 he has finally become a contender.

    Indeed, it seems the horrible overall level in this event right now has inspired other older guys too.

    mDT - Marcell

    Yup, the at least somewhat consistent Czech guy and not Lawrence Okoye. Sorry mump.

    mDec - Knobel and Erinš

    OK, maybe Eaton too, but he's such a gigantic non-surprise it's hard to forget he hasn't been around for ages.

    (Erinš who? The new Latvian record holder, who has improved his lifetime best by a nice & succulent 351 points to an internationally noteworthy 8312.)

    walks - ask our resident walk guy. I'm not as uninterested in walks as some here - I love watching a good 50k - but that doesn't mean I can tell who deserves to be noted even if you give me a top list to look at...

    w100 - Calvert and Levy

    One has not only improved from 11.19 to 11.05 but become somewhat consistent at the European circuit. The other somehow placed 3rd at the ultra-strong Jamaican champs, and since I'd never heard of her before that presumably counts as a step up.

    w200 - Solomon, Duncan and Tarmoh

    Solomon's been Not Quite There for a long time, now it's looking as if she might be at the top (though it will take some international meets to prove it...) Duncan... when a 19-year-old has 4 times in that year's top 15 in mid-July she's doing something right. US certainly has meaty depth here.

    w400 - nah.

    The whole event is lame right now, not just the new girls but the established girls as well.

    w800 - Santiusti

    Wins in strong Euro meets do quite a lot to convince me, and that's what she has now and never really had before. Of course, she also has a shiny new PB of 1:59.00 and might well improve it... could be a surprise medalist in Daegu if she keeps this up.

    w1500 - Uceny

    Some people are already talking of her as a Daegu winner or a medalist at the very least. Maybe not... but two consecutive DL wins are a definite step up.

    Edit: nevets is right about Arigawi, I was probably suffering from recentism

    w5000 - Mercy Cherono and Genzebe Dibaba

    Two talents who used to fight each other and are now fighting the best. So far they're losing, but the margin isn't big.

    w10000 - can't say

    Not enough meets.

    w100H - Carruthers, Urech and Nia Ali

    Carruthers was close to this form 7 years ago (!), but it's now that she's become a legit WC gold contender. Urech is developing steadily and is already quite close to the top. Ali took a nice 0.41 off her PB during a NCAA-dominating season and could well file off another bit some time soon.

    w400H - Hejnová

    Some people seem to be doubting her WL, but nobody can doubt she's improving rapidly. Regular 53s is serious mutton.

    wSteeple - Assefa, Adamu and Njoroge

    The former has been there for a couple years but has achieved a new kind of consistency. Njoroge, though actually older by a year, has improved her PB by ten seconds this year already. Adamu has been toying with the WJR... but something tells me this is one event where we should be really for an entirely different set of faces on the Daegu podium. (If actually forced to guess, Habiba Ghribi will take the WC gold. You heard it here first!)

    wHJ - none

    wLJ - DeLoach

    It's not the 699i or the 697, not that those aren't a huge improvement on her pre-2011 best. It's the not totally collapsing when you put a new environment around her.

    wPV - Bleasdale

    From WJC bronze medalist to a legit 470 jumper is not so much a step as a giant leap.

    wTJ - Papahrístou, Ibargüen and Demut

    The Colombian has been ultra-consistent, while the Greek has one big mark... the German is somewhere in between. All have yet to prove theirselves on the global stage.

    wSP - Camarena-Williams

    She's improved her best by 68cm this year already, and seems quite consistent at these new heights... how long will that AR last?

    wDT - Thurmond

    So she hasn't been even close to her PB. Not the important thing in an event where consistency is king and it's non-windy results that matter - until this year, nobody's really thought of her as a possible WC medalist.

    wJT - none

    Muze seems to be coming along nicely but will need another couple years to get there.

    wHT - Heidler

    She's gone from #1 to #1 - if that counts as a step up is unclear.

    wHep - Nana Djimou

    OK, so she was 7th at World Champs two years ago - don't say 6400 for 3rd at Götzis isn't still a step up. Schippers is also developing nicely...

    So I went on for way too long. No, you can't have a one-sentence summary. And yup I forgot the marathons and am too lazy to add them...

  • #2
    Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

    Shaween's 3:31 win in Hengelo completely escaped my attention, I must admit! Perhaps add Arigawi to the w1500m list? She had a cracking indoor season and while she hasn't raced outdoors, there's still some time for some decent racing.

    I was recently thinking about how perennial finalists Calatayud and Benhassi seem to be on the decline now and both countries have decent athletes coming through - Santiusti and Hachlaf. And Santiusti's PB came just one day after she fell in Paris. :shock:
    http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

      Kylie Hutson is older but just in her first pro year and has gone 4.70, and did not miss at USATF until 4.75, and that is a sometimes tricky place to vault, from what I hear.

      "wPV - Bleasdale

      From WJC bronze medalist to a legit 470 jumper is not so much a step as a giant leap. "

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

        Originally posted by LopenUupunut
        mPV - Wojciechowski

        Just to keep Powell happy, even though he's been unable to duplicate his 586 indoor form.
        Wojciechowski is a ? at the moment. But remember, this indoor season he started out with a few competitions at around 5.40 before setting that NR. I'm still hoping he has a similar breakthrough outdoors - the Euro U23 would be a good time to do it.

        There's one more Pole who I think deserves to be on that list: Pawe? Fajdek in HT. He set a PB in pouring rain to finish second in the ETC, and recently he improved by over a meter (to 78.13) in Madrid and finished second against a field that included 4 of the top 5 throwers this year.

        He's now in the top 10 on the world list, and seeing how miserable the HT is looking nowadays, you never know what might happen - 78-meter throws have won medals in recent years.
        Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

          Yes, Fajdek is developing nicely - especially when you consider that most of the top dogs are at least 9-10 years older than him, up to the 15½ of apparent current #1 Nicola Vizzoni.

          This talk of Polish hammer guys made me wonder where Kondratowicz is - looks like he got injured and re-retired?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

            I haven't heard anything about injury. I think he re-retired and went back to a full-time job after he missed top 6 at the Euros and thus didn't qualify for top-level funding.
            Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

              OK, I couldn't find anything on him in English so I had this Google translated, and that as we all know is highly unreliable.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                Yes, it looks like you're right about the injury. I guess I haven't been following things enough.
                Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                  Great post and great thread. Maybe we are in a bit of a transition period right now, some events have been rather underwhelming so far whereas in other events young athletes are emerging.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                    You definately missed Martina Strutz in the Women´s Pole Vault.
                    She jumps consistently 4.70m week after week. And today she smashed the german record and jumped 4.78. The best height this far in the year.
                    And definately a medal contender in Daegu !

                    Did you know her before the year ?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                      Strutz is a very good call. Where's she been for the past few years?

                      Her last five competitons have been 4.70m, 4.71m, 4.70m, 4.70m, 4.70m.

                      EDIT: And her WL of 4.78m
                      http://twitter.com/Trackside2011

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                        Yes, Strutz definitely belongs, though as nevets indicated she's far from being a total newcomer. She was 5th at Euro Champs back in '06.

                        I guess I don't follow PV as closely as, say, javelin. :wink:

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                          Originally posted by LopenUupunut
                          Yes, Strutz definitely belongs, though as nevets indicated she's far from being a total newcomer. She was 5th at Euro Champs back in '06.

                          I guess I don't follow PV as closely as, say, javelin. :wink:
                          Few can be well-versed in all the events from the top to newcomers, which is why such a thread with a very good beginning is interesting as we wait for the season to unfold, and this does some to be a season a bit slow to unfold, as we do not know the true status of athletes from Bolt on down through other major competitors (although one thrower certainly decreased the uncertainty of his condition lately).

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                            Thanks, LopenUupunut, for an excellent and informative post.

                            You wrote:
                            mDec - Knobel and Erinš

                            OK, maybe Eaton too, but he's such a gigantic non-surprise it's hard to forget he hasn't been around for ages.

                            (Erinš who? The new Latvian record holder, who has improved his lifetime best by a nice & succulent 351 points to an internationally noteworthy 8312.)
                            A bit more info on these two:

                            Knobel is 22 years old, and has been competing in multi-events since 2008. Prior to 2011, he had started 7 senior decathlons and only finished 3, with a PR of 7753. His DNFs include 2 PV no heights, a zero in the LJ, and a zero in the DT (I don't know if these were 3 fouls or injury withdrawals). Two of those DNFs came in 2010 - the only decathlons he competed in last year. At Gotzis 2010 he was well on his way to a score right around 8000 when he no-heighted the PV. This year at Gotzis he had a major breakthrough, placing 5th in 8288, hitting decathlon PRs in the SP 15.48, hurdles 14.77, DT 46.68, PV 4.96, JT 72.99, and 1500 4:43.39. That's a 535 point PR.

                            Does Knobel have the additional 250-300 points in him if he is to threaten for a medal in Daegu? His PR's now add up to only 8457, so one wouldn't think so. Plus, the number of DNFs is worrying. If he were in medal contention come the PV, could he take the pressure? But he is young, his trajectory is Eatonesque (though 450 points lower), and, since 6 of his decathlon PRs are from this year, he may well continue to improve. Note that prior to Gotzis 2009, Knobel's countryman Schrader's decathlon PRs only summed to 8365, yet he scored 8522. exceeding the sum of his decathlon PRs by 157 points.

                            As for Erinš: He is 25 years old, and has been competing in multi-events since he was 17. He's been quite active indoors, with a heptathlon PR of 5787 dating from 2008. Prior to 2011, his decathlon PR was 7961 from 2007. His PRs now add to 8507. In his breakthrough 8312, he set PRs in the 100 10.79, LJ 7.67, hurdles 14.56, DT 49.94, PV 4.50, and 1500 4:14.25.

                            An older athlete than Knobel who has been competing in multievents much longer, I wouldn't think Erinš has as much potential for a Schrader-like breakthrough in Daegu. But it's not out of the realm of possibility.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Early 2011 steppers-up (long post warning)

                              Erinš's weak spots seem to be pole vault and high jump. Janis Karlivans (the previous holder of the Latvian NR) wasn't much of a pole vaulter either...

                              I can't help but be reminded of Janis Dimza, who was having a brilliant decathlon at the '32 Olympics until injuring himself in the pole vault. Has there been a curse on Latvian decathletes ever since?

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X