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3 · 09-12-2011, 10:05 AM

Rudisha vs Kipketer

Between Rudisha and Kipketer:

Kipketer (1"87s) has a slight advantage over Rudisha (1"94s) in the greatest time margin of victory they've been able to net over their runner-ups in their heretofore fastest races, with Kipketer's 1'41"11 pulling Patrick Konchellah to 1'42"98 and Rudisha's 1'41"01 pulling Boaz Lalang to 1'42"95. [/*:m:2pdfi67l]
In 1'41 races Rudisha and Kipketer have run, Rudisha has had the greatest time distance separating himself and the runner-up, with his 1'41"51 run 3"44s ahead of Monsoor's 1'44"95 at Heusden-Zolder last season. The greatest distance between Kipketer and a competitor in any of Kipketer's 1'41 races was a 2"02s victory (1"41"73) over Konchella (1'43"75) in Stockholm, 1997.[/*:m:2pdfi67l]
Three times (twice by Konchella in Kipketer races, and once by Lalang in a Rudisha race) have competitors in Rudisha or Kipketer races been able to break 1'43 in pursuit.[/*:m:2pdfi67l]
The top-5 average runner-up times in Rieti is 1'42"91, of which only one of those times was achieved in a 1'41 race --- that honour going to the Rudisha-Lalang duo.[/*:m:2pdfi67l]
The closest anyone has gotten to Rudisha in races where Rudisha has won and run either 1'41, 1'42 or 1'43, respectively are: Lalang (1"94); Kaki (0"12); and Yego (0"14).[/*:m:2pdfi67l]
Between Kipketer and Rudisha, it is Rudisha who owns the fastest times of the two ever recorded in June (1'42"04), July (1'41"51), August (1'41"01) and September (1'41"33), respectively. Kipketer's stats: June (1'43"11), July (1'42"51), August (1'41"11), September (1'41"83). [/*:m:2pdfi67l]
Kipketer won every race in which he ran sub-1'43. Rudisha also holds this current distinction.[/*:m:2pdfi67l]
Running a 1'43"01 in Ad-Dawhah last year rather than 1'43"00, would have given Rudisha a trifecta in the x'xx"01 category (1'41"01, 1'42"01 and 1'43"01). He's also stopped the clock in his fastest 1'44 race at 1'44"03. Kipketer had once stopped the clock in 1'43"01 (Zurich 1999).[/*:m:2pdfi67l]
Of all of the sub-1'44 times they've run (combined 64 races outdoors), Rudisha and Kipketer only share two marks: 1'42"61 which Kipketer twice accomplished; and 1'43"88.[/*:m:2pdfi67l]
Kipketer and Rudisha originate from the same country, have both set world records at 800m, both have won world championships, and Kipketer (December 12) has a birthday 5 days ahead of Rudisha's (December 17).[/*:m:2pdfi67l]

**jlt** · 09-12-2011, 03:37 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

Interesting stats!
Let's hope for good weather on Friday night in Brussels (we're due a good night there)......maybe your averages will be due for further revision.....

**deanouk** · 09-13-2011, 11:45 AM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

3 said,

Rudisha owns the fastest times ever recorded in June (1'42"04)

This is wrong. Coe ran the fastest ever 800m for June on June 10th 1981 in Florence, with 1:41.73. He won by over 5 secs, a much bigger margin than any of Kipketer's or Rudisha's sub 1:43 runs.

3 · 09-13-2011, 01:24 PM

Between Rudisha and Kipketer

Originally posted by deanouk

3 said,

Rudisha owns the fastest times ever recorded in June (1'42"04)

This is wrong. Coe ran...

I realize that you may take any post of top 800m guys which doesn't mention a Coe stat as a slight against Coe. The subject of my post above is as follows: "[Comparisons] Between Rudisha and Kipketer". I included neither Coe, Cruz, Bungei, nor et al marks for comparison there. I've amended my bullet point to illustrate the comparison between Rudisha and Kipketer in keeping in line with the theme of that particular post.

**gibson** · 09-13-2011, 02:19 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

rush-d' should work with two 45 second 400m men in practice and practice rabbiting and drafting.
48-49 seconds. now he pretty much runs solo and too far behind the lead runner.

this is not done, but kaki could agree to take the lead from 400m to 650m in one race (after a 48.5) and rush-d return the favor next race.

then we could see 140 flat.

3 · 09-13-2011, 02:43 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

Originally posted by gibson

this is not done, but kaki could agree to take the lead from 400m to 650m in one race (after a 48.5) and rush-d return the favor next race.

Maybe good on paper, but these are bragging rights up for grab as well as world-record bonuses. Say Kaki tows the field through 650m and Rudisha sets the WR. Rudisha earns a WR bonus --- Kaki? A pat on the back and a promise from Rudisha to repay the favor. Next race: Say Rudisha does return the favor by running 650m hard, does he throw in the towel if he's feeling exceptional that day in favor of a commitment made to Kaki? What happens if Kaki doesn't run break the WR the rabbit Rudisha set in the previous Kaki-rabbited race?

There are only so many 48"5 races in these guys' legs over the course of a career. I don't imagine Rudisha would waste one of those opportunities to help someone break his world record.

**deanouk** · 09-13-2011, 03:22 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

The thread is entitled, "Rudisha vs Kipketer et al"
I know you were specifically looking at Rudisha and Kipketer in your thread, but you did originally say that Rudisha has run the fastest ever 800m in June. That's quite a general and all encompassing statement, and it wasn't made clear that you meant "ever" in terms of just them 2 ever! I thought you made a genuine mistake, and wanted to point it out to you. That's all.

3 · 09-13-2011, 03:29 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

Dean, I can see how that appeared that way. I have since amended that post so that it's not a general, sweeping statement of fiction, but one of fact between Rudisha and Kipketer. Thank you for pointing out another view of the point I made.

**deanouk** · 09-13-2011, 03:36 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

rush-d' should work with two 45 second 400m men in practice and practice rabbiting and drafting.
48-49 seconds. now he pretty much runs solo and too far behind the lead runner.

this is not done, but kaki could agree to take the lead from 400m to 650m in one race (after a 48.5) and rush-d return the favor next race.

then we could see 140 flat.

Yes, Rudisha does stay a bit too far off his rabbit's tail, producing less drafting, but that's because Tangui goes too quickly! 48 low is not going to get him a 1:40 clocking. He's actually going to be better off staying a few metres back. I think having a rabbit infront of you is as much a benefit psychologically as it is in terms of drafting.
I wonder how much benefit is gained from drafting on the first lap in good conditions, as opposed to the third quarter, when some drafting would be more appreciated.
From the very poor camera work at this weekend's Rieti race, it would appear that Rudisha was drafted for about 100m by Som, from c.420 - 520m. This seemed to "jack up" his 600m split, which was the quickest he's had.
I seem to remember that Kipketer also had drafting (or at least a rabbit next to him) in his fastest race, to about 560m. I think that's the reason they are getting so close to breaking 1:41.
I suspect if Rudisha had good drafting from 200, through 400m (49.0 - 49.4) & on to 600m (1:14.5), with perhaps Kaki 5m behind at that stage, then we will see a 1:40.**
I don't think anyone at the moment is capable of 1:40 flat.

**rson** · 09-13-2011, 07:17 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

I would think that the best 800 ever run was Kipketer's World Indoor record.He had no rabbit,was running on a 200m track and still broke 1:43.

**Master Po** · 09-13-2011, 08:02 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

Thanks to 3 & AS for these stats -- really interesting stuff!

3 · 09-14-2011, 08:50 AM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

Originally posted by deanouk

I think having a rabbit infront of you is as much a benefit psychologically as it is in terms of drafting.

Dean, I agree. I've understood that Rudisha does, in fact, prefer to visualise his pacer as a target; Rudisha's not following Tangui, he's pursuing him. Rudisha says that when he watched Kipketer run one of his 1'41 times (on Youtube, as he was only 8 when the record was set), he noticed the rabbit went out in 49. Rudisha said that in order to run faster, he'd have his races go out in 48, instead. So far, so good.

There has been countless discussion on the "proper" splits required to run a world-record, whether that be a quick first 200m or a solid final 200m. A side-note was made here a couple of years back on the "middle 400m" (as Alan Shank put it on another thread) of 800m races. It stated something to the effect that Kipketer and Coe ran their 200m-400m split within a half-second or so of their finishing times in two of the WR runs. Looking up those splits, it followed suit for Coe, who ran a 1'41"2 pace (50"6) from 200m to 600m enroute to 1'41"73.

There's no evidence other than a few split times to support a contention to whether the "trick" to achieving a desired time is in running the 400m between 200m and 600m within a half-second or so of the intended target time. Nevertheless, bearing that in mind, it may be worth it for Rudisha to attempt running at 1'40"3 pace (50"15) from 200m to 600m and see if he gains ground in his attempt to running under 1'41 --- possibly within the realm of 1'40"8. The 49-point he ran in Rieti did him in, as he finished in 1'41, not the 1'39 pace he was running in the "middle" of his race. I believe he split 50"2 between 200m and 600m in Berlin, and wasn't able to run 1'40"4. He apparently split 50"3 (1'40"6 pace) in Rieti (1'41"09), falling within that 0"5s finishing time of his mid-section pace.

All this is just a long-winded way of stating that Rudisha may appear to have a better shot of running 1'40 if he runs a pace within the "middle" of his race consistent with his sought-after final time.

Obviously, if Rudisha goes out in 23 and runs 50-point up to 600m, he's going to be in a world of hurt following a 1'13 600m split, and many of the bets would be off for him running 1'40 or so.

**deanouk** · 09-15-2011, 08:10 PM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

There has been countless discussion on the "proper" splits required to run a world-record, whether that be a quick first 200m or a solid final 200m. A side-note was made here a couple of years back on the "middle 400m" (as Alan Shank put it on another thread) of 800m races. It stated something to the effect that Kipketer and Coe ran their 200m-400m split within a half-second or so of their finishing times in two of the WR runs. Looking up those splits, it followed suit for Coe, who ran a 1'41"2 pace (50"6) from 200m to 600m enroute to 1'41"73.

There's no evidence other than a few split times to support a contention to whether the "trick" to achieving a desired time is in running the 400m between 200m and 600m within a half-second or so of the intended target time. Nevertheless, bearing that in mind, it may be worth it for Rudisha to attempt running at 1'40"3 pace (50"15) from 200m to 600m and see if he gains ground in his attempt to running under 1'41 --- possibly within the realm of 1'40"8. The 49-point he ran in Rieti did him in, as he finished in 1'41, not the 1'39 pace he was running in the "middle" of his race. I believe he split 50"2 between 200m and 600m in Berlin, and wasn't able to run 1'40"7. He apparently split 50"3 (1'40"6 pace) in Rieti (1'41"09), falling within that 0"5s finishing time of his mid-section pace.

Thanks for that insightful analysis 3! Very interesting stuff.

Just a few points I'd like to add.

1) Looking at the Rieti 1:41.33 on Youtube, I still insist that Rudisha hit the 200m line (on freeze frame) on 24.0. There is sometimes some residual error between the stadium time and the on screen clock (very noticeable in Daegu!), but freezing the race as Rudisha hits the finish line, it shows 1:41.1/1:41.2, so it would appear that there was a residual error of 0.1 at most. Therefore, I'd say Rudisha's 200 split was between 24.0-24.2. Even if it's 24.2, that still gives a "mid 400m" (200-600m) just outside 50.0 (probably about 50.1) rather than 49 something. I agree though that it may have been slightly too fast.

2) Looking at the "mid 400" splits from last years 1:41 runs I get the following:-
Heusden (1:41.51) - 24.4, 25.3, 25.3, 26.5. .....so a mid 400 of 50.6 (1:41.2 pace)
Berlin (1:41.09) - 24.2, 25.0, 25.3, 26.6 .........." " " " 50.3 (1:40.6 pace)
Rieti (1:41.01) - 24.3, 24.6, 25.7, 26.4 .......... " " " " 50.3 (1:40.6 pace)

So the mid 400s were all within 0.3 of each other. And as you rightly pointed out in your (or the other person's) theory, the 800 pace of all those mid 400s was within 0.5 sec of the finishing time.

If we now look at some of Rudisha's other "fast races", we find the following:-
Rieti 2009 (1:42.01) - 23.9, 26.3, 25.6, 26.2 ..... a mid 400m of 51.9 (1:43.8 pace!)
Oslo 2010 (1:42.04) - 23.6, 25.9, 25.5, 27.0 ....... " " " " 51.4 (1:42.8 pace)
Rieti 2011 (1:41.33) - 24.2, 25.0, 25.1, 27.0....... " " " " 50.1 (1:40.2 pace)

None of these fall within the 0.5sec of the final 800m time based on the 800 pace generated in the mid 400m. Why? Perhaps Rudisha wasn't in as good a form as was in Aug/Sept last year. Or perhaps because the first 200m was too fast (especially in the top 2 races above). It looks like 24.2 is about the perfect split at 200m for Rudisha.

3) Now lets look at Kipketer.
Rieti 1996 (1:41.83) - 24.0, 25.6, 26.6, 25.6 ...... a mid 400m of 52.2!! (1:44.4 pace)
Stockholm 97 (1:41.73) - 24.0, 25.6, 26.7, 25.5 ....... " " " " 52.3! (1:44.6 pace)
Zurich 1997 (1:41.24) - 23.1! 25.3, 25.8, 27.0 ....... " " " " 51.1 (1:42.2 pace)
Cologne 1991 (1:41.11) - 23.9, 25.4, 25.2, 26.6 ....... " " " " 50.6 (1:41.2 pace) BINGO. The first 3 of his sub 1:42's are nowhere near in keeping with the theory that the mid 400 should be at an 800 pace within 0.5 of the final time. I'd say he let the pace drop too much on the third segment in his Rieti & Stockholm runs, perhaps in the incorrect belief that he could push the last 200 a bit harder and still get the record.
The Zurich race didn't fit the theory because the first 200 was way too fast. His last record in Cologne, apart from having good drafting and company to about 570m, fits the theory perfectly, and are very close to the splits shown by Rudisha in his best races from last year.
OR, perhaps Kipketer's physiology is just different?

4) Coe's WR splits are a bit less clear, mainly due to lack of a running clock and not very clear markings (especially in Florence) at 200/600m.
The "official" splits for his first record in Oslo were:
Oslo 79 (1:42.33) - 24.6, 26.0, 24.8! 26.9 ......... the mid 400m here is 50.8 (1:41.6 pace)
Close examination of video evidence reveals nothing to question these splits, although there is far more "changes" in pace during this run than any of the other ones above. The difference between the 2nd and 3rd 200m split is the greatest of any of the other fast races listed above. And the 3rd 200m at 24.8 was run after going slightly wide to pass the pace maker after the bell.
The Florence run is the one that I think is the most interesting, primarily because the "official" splits given at the time have been CHANGED over the years. Originally Coe's splits were published in various publications as: - 24.6 (Konchellah at 24.4), 25.3 (49.9, Konchella at 49.7),
25.1 (1:15.0) and 26.7.
- 24.6, 25.3, 25.1, 26.7 .........the mid 400m is 50.4 (1:40.8 pace)

HOWEVER, sometime between the mid 80's and 2007, those "official" splits appear to have been tweeked somewhat. All publications (including the IAAF Progression of World REcords book) in the last 5 years or so have Coe's splits as: - 24.4, 25.3 (49.7), 25.3 (1:15.0) 26.7.
- 24.4, 25.3, 25.3, 26.7 .......... mid 400m of 50.6 (1:41.2 pace). Bang on the 0.5 difference buffer.

Why the change? In my personal opinion, I believe that it is because "there were NO official splits taken at the meeting! The reason I say this is because I have a very good quality copy on dvd of this race (from a proper official dvd retailed in the UK), and although the 200/600 line is not visible, analysis of the race with a stopwatch reveals the 50.6 mid 400 split to be very unlikely to be accurate.
I have timed the race many times, and always get 1:41.5 or 1:41.6, which is in keeping with the recognised 0.1-0.2 differential between hand time and electrical. So I know what I'm doing.
I decided to pick a clearly visible marker on the track at the approximate 200/600m line; and I'm confident that this is within 3m of the 200m line. I chose the mark based on where Coe was at 24.4, the "official" 200m split.
I then timed this "mid 400m" segment at least 6 times. 4 times I got 51.1 and twice I got 51.0. Both way off the supposed 50.6 split.
Look for yourself at

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUOC3NnUB0E

I chose a man in a green track suit on the infield (and NO he doesn't move between lap 1 & 2) as the 200/600 line. Using that and the finish line I get splits of: - 24.4, 25.3 (49.7 - which I agree with the "official" split) 25.7 (1:15.4) 26.3.
Now of course the "green man" may not be at the exact 200m line, but he's certainly very close to it. My conclusion is that if the 24.4 200m split for Coe is accurate, then his 600m time is either 1:15.4 or 1:15.5, quite a bit slower than what has previously been thought.
If the 1:15.0 split for 600m is accurate, then I'd suggest that his previously published 200m split of 24.4 is wrong, and that it is more like 23.9-24.0.

I tend to go with the former, i.e. 24.4 and 1:15.4, as there were 3 of them close together at that point and it didn't look that fast compared to some 200m splits today.
So that would give - 24.4, 25.3, 25.7, 26.3 ............ so a mid 400m of 51.0 (1:42.0 pace)
Perhaps he could have gone slightly faster if the 3rd 200m had been marginally faster, but then it could be out by the fact he had to run quite wide on the bend for about 20m to pass Konchellah, which probably cost him 0.2. Meaning he should have run 1:41.5 that day had he run 800m and not the 801.5 0r 802 that he did run.

If we take this into account then we get 24.4, 25.3 (49.7), 25.5 (1:15.2), 26.3...now we have a mid 400m of 50.8 (1:41.6 800 pace) in a 1:41.5. That's bang on the "theory".

AS · 09-16-2011, 04:28 AM

Re: Rudisha vs Kipketer et al

Originally posted by jlt

Interesting stats!
Let's hope for good weather on Friday night in Brussels (we're due a good night there)......maybe your averages will be due for further revision.....

If Brussels doesn't turn out, Rudisha is also listed to run in Milan on Sunday ("vs" Amman, Lewandoski and Riseley):

http://www.dbresults.net/sitof/risultat ... xframe.htm

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